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LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $842.53EOD only
Max Pain
$860.00
Next expiry Jun 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$58.80
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+17.47
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
1.35
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
5.0/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: Jun 24, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jun 24, 2026 close
LITE Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close June 25, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

LITE earnings 48d out, 100% beat rate, high IV. Mixed flow: calls for weekly pin, puts for next week. Key level $860 max pain.

Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.2% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Most important: Weekly $860 MP pin and $850 gamma flip are critical thresholds.
📊100% beat rate historically, but put flow dominant.
⚠️Weekly 900C sweeps imply pinning attempt.
🛡️800P accumulation for downside hedge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
At
Gamma flip: ~$850.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,556 (1.4% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-08-12 (48 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-06-26 (1d): ±$35.45 (4.1%)
  • 2026-07-02 (7d): ±$88.30 (10.2%)
  • 2026-07-10 (15d): ±$127.50 (14.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term IV elevated due to weekly expiry; back-month contango.

Crush estimate: Moderate post-earnings crush expected (~20% IV drop).

Skew: Put skew elevated, tail risk priced in.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historically beats by ~4% avg move (based on 5/5).

Directional bias: Bullish bias post-beat, but current flow suggests hedging.

Key Levels

1$850.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 2d $826.52/$897.42; 1w $773.67/$950.27
3Max pain pins: $860 (2026-06-26); $900 (2026-07-02); $850 (2026-07-10)

Flow Highlights

Unusual 2254 vol on 6/26 900C (3.1x OI).

Bullish speculation for weekly pin at $900 resistance.

441 vol on 6/26 915C (2.8x OI).

Upside bet above $900, likely hedging/positioning.

296 vol on 7/2 800P (1.9x OI).

Bearish protection for next week, targeting $800 support.

Strategies

Short Strangle
Sell 2026-07-02 $850.00 put + sell $880.00 call
Credit: $65.92-$80.58
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $80.58
BE: 769.42 / 960.58
Trigger: Close at 50% max gain or if spot breaches $860.
Only liquid candidate, captures rich IV at $860 pin.
Outperforms: Sell near-term OTM put and call to collect premium.
Underperforms: Break outside short strikes invalidates short-vol thesis.
Put Calendar
Sell 2026-07-02 $850.00 put / buy 2026-08-21 $850.00 put
Debit: $76.00-$92.89
Max loss: $92.89
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Exit if spot drops below $850 or near expiry. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_put: Open interest below 25.
Exploits contango for cost-effective downside hedge.
Outperforms: Sell short put with high IV, buy longer put to limit risk.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-07-02 $880.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $880.00 call
Debit: $80.46-$98.34
Max loss: $98.34
Max gain: Variable
BE: Path-dependent
Trigger: Roll short call if spot approaches strike; close at profit target. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Volume below 5.
Bullish bias with high short-term IV.
Outperforms: Sell near-term call, buy later call for time decay and upside.
Underperforms: Loss of support or adverse vol term shift weakens thesis.
Long straddle
Buy 2026-08-21 $930.00 put + buy $930.00 call
Debit: $249.57-$305.03
Max loss: $305.03
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 624.97 / 1235.03
100% beat rate, elevated IV, key $860 level; straddle profits from any large move.
Outperforms: Buy straddle to capture large post-earnings move; history beats by ~4%.
Underperforms: Under-realized move and IV crush hurt long-vol thesis.

Risk Assessment

!Pin risk at $860 MP for weekly expiry.
!Gamma flip near $850 could amplify moves.
!IV crush if no catalyst before earnings.
!High put OI suggests downside hedging.

What to Watch

?Spot behavior around $860 and $900.
?Volume confirmation on 900C and 800P.
?Gamma flip at $850 support level.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on June 25, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.