KO Theta Gang Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
Theta Verdict
Confidence:7 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning; +1 normal IV; +1 bullish flow; -0.5 low absolute IV
IV Environment
IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 24.4% — Normal for KO. No VIX comparison provided.
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Humped at 5/01 (24.1%) and 5/08 (24.9%), then gradually declining.
IV is normal, providing fair premium for defined-risk strategies.
IV term structure peaks ~31-45 DTE, favoring May expirations.
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 1.4% (spot $76.05 vs MP $75)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$61.4M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Gamma flip estimated at ~$65. Price is well above, in a strong pinning regime.
OI concentrations: Major Put Walls: $65 (19K OI), $67.50 (16.5K OI), $75 (15K OI). Major Call Wall: $80 (21.4K OI).
Verdict: Highly Favorable — Strong positive GEX and OI concentrations create a powerful magnet near $75, supporting credit positions.
Premium Opportunities
#1
put spread
Sell $75/$72.50 put spread 5/01 (31 DTE)
Anchors to the massive $75 put OI support (15K) and the next major OI level at $72.50. IV is highest in this expiration window (~24.1%). Strong pinning regime provides a tailwind.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.29 credit). Exit if KO closes below $73.50 (below short strike). Roll not recommended for defined-risk spreads.
#2
covered call
Sell $80 covered call 5/15 (45 DTE)
Targets the largest call OI wall (21.4K) at $80, which aligns with the 45 DTE expected move high of $81.01. Provides a 5.2% upside to the call strike. Premium is decent for KO's low-vol profile.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Consider rolling up and out if KO approaches $79.50. Be aware of ex-dividend date (none imminent).
#3
iron condor
Sell $72.50/$75P x $80/$82.50C 5/15 (45 DTE)
Plays the strong pinning range between major OI levels ($75P / $80C). The 45 DTE expected move ($71.10-$81.01) comfortably contains the short strikes. Positive GEX supports range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Adjust/roll the tested side if price breaches a short strike by more than $0.50.
#4
cash-secured put
Sell $72.50 put 6/18 (79 DTE)
For sellers willing to take assignment. Targets the high-OI $72.50 strike, which is 4.7% below spot. The longer DTE captures more premium in a stable, pinning environment. Provides a 2.3% yield on capital for the duration.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if tested. Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to accept shares at $72.50.
Risk Alerts
Earnings estimated 4/28/26 — Close or roll all short premium positions before this date to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
Gamma flip at ~$65 — A break below this level would see dealer hedging amplify selling pressure, threatening all put credit positions.
Low Absolute IV (~24%) — Premiums are modest. Focus on defined-risk spreads or strategies with high probability of success.
Bullish Flow (Net Prem +$2.3M, P/C 0.32) — Underlying bias is up, but call walls at $80 may cap rallies.
Max Pain Trend Rising — Long-term max pain rises from $75 to $78, suggesting a gradual upward drift is priced in.
Read the Theta Gang analysis for KO for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.