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KO

Coca-Cola Company (The)Close $81.55EOD only
Max Pain
$80.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.05
1.3% from close
Price Gap
-1.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
20
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects KO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
KO Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/28 (28 days out). IV is normal (24%), with a slight term structure kink at 5/01 (31d) to 24.1%. The stock is in a strong pinning regime with bullish flow. Historical EPS beat rate is 100% over the last 4 quarters, but moves are typically modest. Best strategy is a short premium play, capitalizing on the pinning regime and low expected volatility.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning regime; +0.5 consistent EPS beat history; -0.5 low absolute IV limits crush premium
Most important: Strong pinning regime (GEX +$61.4M) and spot above max pain suggest a high probability of price containment.
🎯Strong pinning regime (GEX +$61M) is the dominant technical factor favoring range-bound price action.
📊Earnings date inferred from term structure kink at 5/01 and provided EPS estimate date. Confirm via company IR.
⚠️Low absolute IV means crush plays offer smaller credits. Risk/Reward less attractive than in high-vol names.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 24%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$61.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$2.3M, P/C 0.32)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 1.4% (spot $76.05 vs MP $75)
Gamma flip: ~$65.00 — Below $65, dealers may amplify downside moves due to put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-28 (28 days)inferred from term structure kink and EPS estimate date

Expected moves:

  • 5/01 (31d): ±$4.04 (5.3%)
  • 4/24 (24d): ±$3.24 (4.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Slight kink at 5/01 (31d) to 24.1% vs 22.5% on 4/24 and 24.9% on 5/08. No extreme front-month spike.

Crush estimate: ~2-4 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~20-22% range.

Skew: Flow is heavily call-skewed (P/C 0.32), but OI is more balanced (P/C 0.94).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Insufficient price history provided to calculate.

Directional bias: All 4 recent quarters showed positive EPS surprises.

Key Levels

1$65 gamma flip / major put OI
2$75 max pain & put OI wall
3$77.50 call OI wall
4$80 major call OI wall
531d EM Bounds: $72 - $80

Flow Highlights

Heavy bullish premium flow at $75C (+$794k net), $76C (+$476k net).

Institutional buying of near-term calls, supporting bullish sentiment into earnings.

Unusual volume in 4/10 $77C & $78C (Vol/OI >5x).

Traders positioning for a pre-earnings or post-earnings move towards $77-$78.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Post-Earnings IV Crush)
Sell $72.5 PUT / Buy $70 PUT x Sell $80 CALL / Buy $82 CALL 5/01
Credit: $0.70-$0.90
Max loss: $1.80
Max gain: $0.80
BE: 73.20 / 79.80
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (4/26-4/27).
Capitalizes on pinning regime, elevated IV in the 5/01 expiration, and historical tendency for modest moves. Wings set just outside the expected move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 31-day expected move ($72.01-$80.09) and IV crushes.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside condor wings ($70-$82).
Bull Call Spread (Directional, Lower Cost)
Buy $76 CALL / Sell $78 CALL 5/01
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: $2.00
BE: 76 + debit
Trigger: Enter on any dip towards $75 (max pain) before earnings.
Leverages bullish flow, positive EPS surprise history, and spot above max pain. Targets a move into the dense call OI zone at $77.50-$80.
Outperforms: Stock rallies post-earnings, targeting the $78 call OI wall.
Underperforms: Stock fails to rally or sells off.
Short Strangle (Premium Harvest, Higher Risk)
Sell $72.5 PUT / Sell $80 CALL 5/01
Credit: $1.40-$1.60
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $1.50
BE: 71.00 / 81.50
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings if IV rises.
More aggressive premium sale than the condor, betting on strong pinning and a contained move. Higher margin requirement and risk.
Outperforms: Stock pins between $73-$79, IV crushes significantly.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens, especially below $71.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 31-day expected move is ±5.3% ($4.04). A guidance-related surprise could breach this.
!IV Crush Impact: Limited. IV is only moderately elevated (~24%), so crush premium is smaller than in high-IV names.
!Liquidity: Excellent. High OI at key strikes ($65P, $75P, $80C) and tight spreads expected.
!Sizing: Standard sizing appropriate. The pinning regime reduces tail risk but does not eliminate it.

What to Watch

?Spot price action relative to $75 max pain and $65 gamma flip.
?IV movement in the 5/01 expiration as earnings approach.
?Any unusual put flow, as current flow is overwhelmingly call-biased.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.