base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 27.0% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18
Term structure: Front-month (1DTE) ATM IV 65.9%, call IV 229%, put IV 334% due to pinning; other expirations 70-72%, mildly upward sloping
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+3.1M)
Gamma flip: ~$224.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 20,821 (6.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain $188 (Jun18), $220 (Jul17), $218 (Aug21); Put floor $140-$224; Call wall $260-$320; Gamma flip near $224
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-17 $226.00/$216.00 put wing and $250.00/$260.00 call wing
Sells wings to capture premium decay; benefits from range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max gain or before earnings on July 30.
#2Call credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $260.00/$290.00 call spread
Profits if spot stays below $260; uses extreme IV to collect rich premium.
Mgmt: Exit if spot pushes above $260 or at 75% max gain.
!High pin risk ahead of Jun18 expiry; 1DTE options have extreme IV skew.
!Spot 27% above max pain; potential reversion if pinning fails.