thetaOwl

IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETFClose $282.49EOD only
Max Pain
$279.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.47
1.2% from close
Price Gap
-3.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
9
Low premium
P/C OI
2.71
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.5/10
Bearish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IWM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
IWM Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness7 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put credit spreads (30-45 DTE) near the $248–$250 OI/MP cluster
Invalidation: Close below gamma flip $240.00 or weekly EM lower guardrail $243.99
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pre-computed); +0.5 spot 2.0% from MP (pre-computed)

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Avg IV 32.1% (near-term ATM 34.1% at 10d, 29.8% at 31d) — elevated vs long-term averages for large caps but normal for IWM
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-week ATMs are rich (1–10d ATM 49.1% → 34.1% at 10d) then sloping lower toward 30d (29.8%) — good for selling front- and near-term premium with term roll optional

💰Avg IV 32.1% with 30–45 DTE ATM ~29.8% provides respectable theta to sell premium
⚠️Very rich 1–3d ATM (49.1%→43.6%) — attractive for short-dated defined-risk spreads only

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $252.91 is Above Max Pain (MP trend ~ $248-$250); short distance (≈1.2%–2.0%) above MP

GEX regime: Trending / breakout (Total GEX $-577.7M) — large negative GEX implies dealers are short gamma (will hedge by selling into moves) and increases trend risk

Gamma flip: ~$240.00Below $240 dealers flip to net long gamma (per pre-computed) — market can accelerate downside if price breaches that level

OI concentrations: Put OI concentration: $240 (144,456 OI), $245 (123,703 OI), near-term put clusters at $248/$244/$242; Call GEX magnets at $255/$256/$258/$260

Verdict: Threatening — negative GEX and heavy put flow mean pinning to MP is less reliable; downside trend risk can hurt naked/vertical put sellers if price moves quickly below EM guardrails

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell 248/244 put spread 2026-05-08 (31 DTE)
Sits at the $248 max-pain/near-term put cluster and captures rich short-dated implied vol; defined-risk spread protects against trending gamma (Total GEX -$577.7M). 31 DTE hits the favourable part of term structure (ATM ~29.8%).
Credit: $1.00-$1.30
Max loss: $3.00
BE: $246.00
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit; roll down 1–3 strikes if short strike tested and credit remaining <0.50 of original; close if underlying closes below weekly EM lower $243.99 or below gamma flip $240.00.
#2
iron condor
Sell 255/258 call spread + 248/244 put spread 2026-05-08 (31 DTE)
Uses the put OI magnet at 248 and call GEX magnets at 255–260 to collect two-sided premium in a range-bound thesis. Defined risk protects against accelerated moves (negative GEX makes naked wings risky).
Credit: $1.90-$2.50
Max loss: $3.50
BE: 244.10 / 257.40
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten or buy back wings if either short strike is touched intraday; roll the threatened side out 2–4 weeks or one strike wide if credit available and market stabilizes; close all if price closes below $243.99 or above $261.84 (1w EM upper).
#3
covered call
Buy IWM shares and sell 256 call 2026-05-08 (31 DTE)
If you want equity exposure, selling the 256C (~$3.36 credit) yields ~1.3% downside cushion and collects carry; works with negative-flow regime where downside risk needs equity hedge discipline.
Credit: $3.29-$3.43
Max loss: Unlimited (stock risk) minus premium
BE: $249.62
Mgmt: Take profit on calls at 60% of premium; buy back if IWM rallies and call delta >0.35 or if price closes above 256; bail and convert to collar if price falls below $247.76 (2d EM lower) or close below $243.99.
#4
put spread (shorter-dated defined-risk)
Sell 247/243 put spread 2026-04-17 (10 DTE) — use weekly if seeking higher front-week credit
Front-week IV is very rich (1–3d ATM 49.1%→43.6%) — defined-risk weekly put spreads capture outsized theta while limiting tail risk in a trending (negative GEX) regime.
Credit: $0.95-$1.40
Max loss: $3.05
BE: $246.05
Mgmt: Close at 50–65% of max profit; if short strike tested more than once intraday, roll down or close; avoid holding through any major macro events; cut losses if price closes below $243.99 or two consecutive daily closes below $247.76.

Risk Alerts

!Large negative total GEX ($-577.7M) — increases trend acceleration risk; avoid large naked short gamma positions.
!Max pain cluster ~$248–$250 with heavy put flow (top OI: $240 = 144,456) — institutional protective buying can flip quickly; short puts face rapid repricing.
!Unusual flow: concentrated put buying at $247/$249/$240 (high volume / elevated IV) — watch for dealer positioning and one-way order flow that can steepen moves.
!Gamma flip near $240.00 — breach below this level can produce sharp downside acceleration; cut put exposure if price approaches $240.00.
!Front-week IV extremely rich (1–3d ATM 49.1%→43.6%) — use only defined-risk weekly sells; do not sell naked through potential catalysts.
!No Earnings data provided — absence of an earnings flag in the data means check your calendar before selling through company-specific events. (If earnings exist within your trading horizon, avoid naked short exposure.)
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.
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Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.