base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.9% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Term structure: Steep short-dated put skew; 3–7d strikes cheap on IV but term IV elevated and flatter beyond 1M
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+535.1M)
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 125,562 (9.3% below spot)
OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~9.3% below spot; max-pain at $258,$264,$265
#1Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $280.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $290.00 call
Harvests long-tenor IV vs dislocated near-term by selling nearer short and buying slightly higher long call; meaningful credit with tiny defined downside exposure.
Mgmt: Trim/close if spot <271.03, VIX>25, or if short leg loses >50%; consider rolling short farther OTM or unwinding on IV reversion.
#2Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $285.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $290.00 call
Very cheap diagonal to limit front-week vega while keeping upside cap; lower payback if IV normalizes.
Mgmt: Close if spot <271.03, VIX>25, or if premium paid/received moves adversely; roll or exit on IV normalization.
!Front-week IV dislocation makes short-dated premium selling hazardous
!Steep put skew and concentrated OI can amplify downside if selling accelerates
!Gap risk if spot moves >6% beyond max-pain levels