base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 strong pinning regime; +1 spot below max pain; -2 high volatility risk
Term structure: Humped around 45 DTE (~102% IV), remains elevated out to 290 DTE.
Spot vs MP: Spot $34.28 is 15.4% below nearest max pain ($40.50 on 3/27).
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$2.4M).
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Massive put OI at $30 (33,729 contracts) creates a major support/pinning level. Below $30, negative gamma could accelerate moves down.
OI concentrations: Major Put Walls: $30 (33.7K), $5 (33.3K), $20 (32.4K). Major Call Walls: $110 (26.8K), $50 (25.8K).
#1put spread
Sell $30/$27.5 Put Spread, exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Targets the massive $30 OI put wall, the estimated gamma flip level. 45 DTE captures peak IV (~102%) and provides time buffer. High credit ($0.75 est.) for $2.5 wide spread = 30% ROI on risk.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit (~$0.49 credit). Roll down/out if $30 is breached. Exit entirely on close below $29.
#2iron condor
Sell $30/$28P x $40/$42C Iron Condor, exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between the $30 put wall and the $40 call wall (near max pain for many expiries). Wide expected move ($7.53) provides a large buffer. High probability of expiring worthless.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; roll tested side out in time. Close if spot moves beyond short strike by more than $1.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $30 Put, exp 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own shares. Collects enormous premium ($6 est.) due to 98% IV, backed by the strongest OI support level. 79 DTE allows for time decay and volatility crush.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested. Be prepared to take assignment below $30, which would be a ~31% discount to current price.
#4call credit spread
Sell $40/$42 Call Spread, exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Spot is well below the $40 max pain level. High IV provides great premium for a defined-risk bearish call spread. Short strike aligns with a key resistance level.
Mgmt: Close at 80% max profit due to shorter DTE. Exit if spot closes above $39.
!Earnings estimated 2026-05-13 (~6 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions well before this date to avoid earnings IV crush on sold options.
!Gamma flip at ~$30. A break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure, threatening all put credit positions.
!Extreme IV (>100%) means options are priced for massive moves. While great for sellers, a spike in realized volatility can blow through strikes quickly. Size positions accordingly.
!Unusual put buying in low strikes ($21, $27, $28 for April expirations) indicates some hedging or bearish speculation. Monitor for follow-through.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$9.2M), with P/C ratio at 0.68, suggesting more money spent on puts than calls. This is a bearish sentiment signal to be aware of.
!Massive, far OTM put OI at $5 and $10 may represent legacy positions but creates a long-tail risk if completely unexpected news hits.