Term structure: Humped at 4/24 (47.9%) and 5/01 (46.4%), offering rich premium in the 30-45 DTE range.
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 2.1% (spot $242.39 vs MP $248).
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$1.6M — mean-reverting).
Gamma flip: ~$190.00 — Gamma flip is far below at ~$190. Current positive GEX supports a pinning/range-bound environment near spot.
OI concentrations: Major put walls at $190 (4,636 OI) and $240 (3,680 OI). Major call wall at $275 (5,353 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $240/$235 Put Spread exp 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Targets the major $240 put OI support (3,680 OI) in a pinning regime. Uses the rich IV (46.4%) in the 31 DTE expiration. Defined risk with a high probability of success if price holds above $240.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.71 credit). Roll down/out if $240 is breached. Exit for a loss on a daily close below $235.
#2iron condor
Sell $235/$230P x $260/$265C Iron Condor exp 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Capitalizes on the pinning range defined by OI ($240P, $275C) and positive GEX. Wide breakevens ($233.60-$261.40) vs. expected move of ±$28.82 (11.9%). Collects rich premium from 43.2% IV.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently; roll tested side if other side is untouched. Exit entire position if spot breaches $230 or $265.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $230 Put exp 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own IBM. Strikes below the massive $190 OI wall and near the $230 call OI level. High absolute credit from 39.6% IV with a 6.5% buffer below spot.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if challenged. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $230 if comfortable with cost basis.
#4call credit spread
Sell $260/$265 Call Spread exp 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish play against the $275 call wall, aligned with bearish flow data (net premium -$14.1M). Sells into the richest IV point (47.9% at 4/24) for accelerated theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit on a daily close above $260. Do not hold through earnings on 4/22.
!Earnings on 2026-04-22 (approx. 3 weeks). Close all short premium positions before this announcement. IV will crush post-earnings.
!Bearish Flow Regime: Net premium -$14.1M and P/C volume 1.56 indicate institutional put buying. This is a headwind for put sellers.
!Low Liquidity: Total OI 269k and volume 17k are moderate. Expect wider bid-ask spreads, especially on multi-leg orders. Use limit orders.
!Unusual Put Activity: Large blocks of $285 & $290 puts for 4/17 exp. Could indicate a large bearish hedge. Monitor for follow-through selling pressure.
!Gamma Flip at ~$190 is far below, but a break below key OI support at $240/$235 could lead to a faster move toward the next support.