IBM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 3; +1.5 strong net premium bearishness; +0.5 P/C volume ratio >1.5; -0.5 low total volume; -0.5 GEX pinning suggests mean reversion

Watch next session: $240 PUT OI (3,680) for defense; Flow reaction if spot tests $237.48 (lower expected move)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$14.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.56 — put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.83 — moderate put lean

Clear bearish flow regime with significant net negative premium and elevated put/call volume. The flow is concentrated in OTM puts, suggesting a directional hedge or bearish bet, while spot trades below max pain.

Notable Prints

IBM 4/17/26 $290 Put

Vol: 1,100

OI: 244

Vol/OI: 4.5x

IV: 53.1%

Notional: ~$319,000

Intent: Fresh OTM put buying for downside protection or bearish speculation.

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to close (bullish). High volume vs. OI and elevated IV suggest new bearish positioning.

Read-through: Largest single print by volume; establishes a bearish anchor ~20% OTM. Consistent with the overall negative premium flow.

IBM 4/17/26 $285 Put

Vol: 600

OI: 104

Vol/OI: 5.8x

IV: 50.9%

Notional: ~$171,000

Intent: Fresh OTM put buying, likely part of a bearish structure with the $290P.

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to close (bullish). The high vol/oi ratio points to new activity.

Read-through: Complements the $290P flow, building a bearish position in the April 17th expiry. These strikes are well below spot, indicating a hedge against a significant drop or a low-delta speculative bet.

IBM 7/17/26 $125 Put

Vol: 250

OI: 160

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 62.2%

Notional: ~$31,250

Intent: Extreme OTM put purchase, likely a cheap, long-dated tail-risk hedge.

Dual read: Bought to open (catastrophic hedge) or sold to close (removing hedge). The very high IV and deep OTM strike suggest a low-cost, high-leverage bet on a crash.

Read-through: Notional is small, but the strike (~48% below spot) and high IV signal a fear of a major downside event. More indicative of sentiment than a direct price target.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Small net positive premium at $220C and $250C, but dwarfed by put flows.

Put additions: Concentrated in OTM strikes $285-$315 for April expiries. The $190P is the largest single OI strike (4,636), creating a major support level.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$1.6M) suggests pinning/mean reversion, but bearish flow (negative premium) contradicts it. This tension is key.

OI clusters: Major PUT wall at $190 (OI 4,636). Major CALL walls at $275 (OI 5,353) and $290 (OI ~5,753 combined). This creates a wide channel with a heavy put skew far below.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The OTM put flow ($285P, $290P) and the massive $190P OI cluster are strong evidence of large-scale, longer-term downside hedging.

Max pain context: Spot ($242.39) is below aggregate max pain (~$248-250). Near-term max pain for 4/2 is $240, aligning with a key put strike. This suggests gravitational pull lower toward $240.

Signal vs Noise

~The $110 and $120 Call premium flows are large net positive, but these are ultra-OTM and likely part of complex multi-leg strategies (e.g., call spreads, jade lizards) or speculative lottery tickets, not directional bullish bets.

~The elevated IV in the April 24th and May 1st expiries (~47-48%) is likely due to the upcoming earnings on 4/22, not purely directional flow.

~Some of the OTM put flow, while bearish in isolation, could be legs of put spreads (buying $290P, selling $285P) which cap downside profit and reduce net bearish exposure.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow is bearish, but GEX is pinning. Conflict suggests range-bound pressure with a bearish lean.

🛡️Significant OTM put hedging establishes $190 as a major long-term support floor.

🎯Watch $240 (4/2 max pain & put strike). A break lower confirms flow thesis; a hold suggests GEX pinning wins.

Read the Flow analysis for IBM. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.