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IBM

International Business MachinesClose $225.00EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.32

2.4% from close

Price Gap

-5.00

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects IBM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

IBM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 3; +1.5 strong net premium bearishness; +0.5 P/C volume ratio >1.5; -0.5 low total volume; -0.5 GEX pinning suggests mean reversion

Watch next session: $240 PUT OI (3,680) for defense; Flow reaction if spot tests $237.48 (lower expected move)

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$14.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.56 — put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.83 — moderate put lean

Clear bearish flow regime with significant net negative premium and elevated put/call volume. The flow is concentrated in OTM puts, suggesting a directional hedge or bearish bet, while spot trades below max pain.

Notable Prints

IBM 4/17/26 $290 Put

Vol: 1,100

OI: 244

Vol/OI: 4.5x

IV: 53.1%

Notional: ~$319,000

Intent: Fresh OTM put buying for downside protection or bearish speculation.

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to close (bullish). High volume vs. OI and elevated IV suggest new bearish positioning.

Read-through: Largest single print by volume; establishes a bearish anchor ~20% OTM. Consistent with the overall negative premium flow.

IBM 4/17/26 $285 Put

Vol: 600

OI: 104

Vol/OI: 5.8x

IV: 50.9%

Notional: ~$171,000

Intent: Fresh OTM put buying, likely part of a bearish structure with the $290P.

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold to close (bullish). The high vol/oi ratio points to new activity.

Read-through: Complements the $290P flow, building a bearish position in the April 17th expiry. These strikes are well below spot, indicating a hedge against a significant drop or a low-delta speculative bet.

IBM 7/17/26 $125 Put

Vol: 250

OI: 160

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 62.2%

Notional: ~$31,250

Intent: Extreme OTM put purchase, likely a cheap, long-dated tail-risk hedge.

Dual read: Bought to open (catastrophic hedge) or sold to close (removing hedge). The very high IV and deep OTM strike suggest a low-cost, high-leverage bet on a crash.

Read-through: Notional is small, but the strike (~48% below spot) and high IV signal a fear of a major downside event. More indicative of sentiment than a direct price target.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Small net positive premium at $220C and $250C, but dwarfed by put flows.

Put additions: Concentrated in OTM strikes $285-$315 for April expiries. The $190P is the largest single OI strike (4,636), creating a major support level.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$1.6M) suggests pinning/mean reversion, but bearish flow (negative premium) contradicts it. This tension is key.

OI clusters: Major PUT wall at $190 (OI 4,636). Major CALL walls at $275 (OI 5,353) and $290 (OI ~5,753 combined). This creates a wide channel with a heavy put skew far below.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The OTM put flow ($285P, $290P) and the massive $190P OI cluster are strong evidence of large-scale, longer-term downside hedging.

Max pain context: Spot ($242.39) is below aggregate max pain (~$248-250). Near-term max pain for 4/2 is $240, aligning with a key put strike. This suggests gravitational pull lower toward $240.

Signal vs Noise

~The $110 and $120 Call premium flows are large net positive, but these are ultra-OTM and likely part of complex multi-leg strategies (e.g., call spreads, jade lizards) or speculative lottery tickets, not directional bullish bets.

~The elevated IV in the April 24th and May 1st expiries (~47-48%) is likely due to the upcoming earnings on 4/22, not purely directional flow.

~Some of the OTM put flow, while bearish in isolation, could be legs of put spreads (buying $290P, selling $285P) which cap downside profit and reduce net bearish exposure.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Flow is bearish, but GEX is pinning. Conflict suggests range-bound pressure with a bearish lean.

🛡️Significant OTM put hedging establishes $190 as a major long-term support floor.

🎯Watch $240 (4/2 max pain & put strike). A break lower confirms flow thesis; a hold suggests GEX pinning wins.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.