base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning; +1 favorable OI structure; -2 low liquidity
Term structure: Humped at 38-45 DTE (May expirations ~99%), elevated across curve
Spot vs MP: Below by 3.4% (spot $20.76 vs MP $22)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$40.7M)
Gamma flip: ~$14.00 — Below $14, dealers amplify moves; strong support above
OI concentrations: Put wall $14 (13K OI), Call wall $30 (18K OI), $25 (16K OI), $21 (15K OI)
#1put spread
Sell $17/$15 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
High IV (94%) provides rich premium. Structure sits between major OI put wall at $14 and current spot. 45 DTE optimal theta decay. Below expected move ($15.32 lower bound).
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Roll if $17 tested (down to $16/$14). Exit all if price closes below $14 gamma flip.
#2iron condor
Sell $17/$15P x $25/$27C 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Captures high IV across both sides. Wings anchored to major OI: $14 put wall below, $25 call wall above. Range encompasses expected move ($15.32-$26.21). Positive GEX supports pinning within range.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Adjust if either short strike tested (roll untested side in). Exit if price breaches $14 or $28.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $17 put 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For those willing to take assignment. Extremely high premium (≈13% ROC). Strike is 18% below spot, below expected move lower bound, and above major $14 OI support. High IV provides cushion.
Mgmt: Roll down/out at 21 DTE if ITM. Close at 70% profit. Accept assignment below $17 if comfortable owning stock at effective $15.20.
#4call credit spread
Sell $25/$27 call spread 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Shorter DTE capitalizes on rapid theta decay. Targets major call wall at $25 (16.6K OI). Spot well below strike. High IV (81%) provides premium. Defined risk.
Mgmt: Close at 75% profit. Exit if price closes above $24.50 (call wall at $23 tested).
!Earnings expected 2026-05-04 — close or roll all positions before announcement (IV crush risk)
!Low liquidity relative to mega-caps — use limit orders, wider spreads expected
!Massive positive GEX (+$40.7M) supports pinning but if broken, move could accelerate below $14
!Unusual put flow at $70 strike (high premium) suggests tail risk hedging — respect wings
!Net premium flow negative (-$14.7M) indicates more premium paid than collected overall
!P/C volume ratio 0.54 shows more call volume — watch for breakout above $21 call wall