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GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.Close $388.91EOD only
Max Pain
$385.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.38
2.1% from close
Price Gap
-3.91
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects GOOGL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
GOOGL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings likely around 4/23, 23 days out. IV is elevated for the 4/24 expiration (35% vs 33% pre/post), creating a viable crush play. Historical data shows a strong tendency to beat estimates and gap up, supporting a directional long bias or defined-risk premium selling.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 7; +1 strong historical beat rate & directional bias; +1 clear IV term structure kink; -1 no explicit earnings date; -1 elevated VIX regime
Most important: IV term structure shows a clear kink at the 4/24 expiration, confirming the market's pricing of an earnings event. Historical beat rate is 100% with a strong upward bias.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated based on IV term structure kink at 4/24. No explicit date provided in data.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is 100% with significant surprises. Market may be underpricing upside potential.
🛡️Massive OI at $215/$200 puts acts as a potential 'volatility floor'—sharp moves below $260 may be met with dealer hedging support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 41%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$56.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$74.8M, P/C 0.71)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 4.9% (spot $287.56 vs MP $302)
Gamma flip: ~$215.00 — Far below spot; dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility near current price.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-23 (23 days)estimated (IV term structure kink at 4/24, 24 days out)

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (24d): ±$21.23 (7.4%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 4/24 expiration (35.0% IV) vs 33.9% (4/17) and 39.2% (5/01). Pre-earnings IV (4/17) is 33.9%.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts, back to ~28-30% range

Skew: Flow is net bullish (P/C 0.71), but heavy OI at $215/$200 puts suggests institutional downside hedging.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot compute from provided data (no historical price moves)

Directional bias: All 4 recent quarters had positive EPS surprises, suggesting an upward earnings bias.

Key Levels

1$215 (Major Put OI Wall)
2$280 (Max Pain for near-term exps)
3$300 (Call OI Wall)
4EM: $265 - $310

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow into 4/01 $295C, $300C, $310C (Net +$19.3M, +$14.1M, +$9.0M)

Strong near-term bullish bets, possibly front-running earnings sentiment.

Large block of 4/01 $302.50C & $297.50C bought with low IV (19.1%, 15.6%)

Likely earnings date speculation or volatility arbitrage, not a high-conviction directional bet.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Sell)
Sell $265/$260P x Buy $310/$315C 4/24
Credit: $2.50-$3.00
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: $2.75
BE: 267.25 / 307.75
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before suspected earnings date (mid-April)
Capitalizes on elevated IV at the 4/24 expiry with a defined-risk structure. Wide wings align with the expected move and key OI levels ($260 near EM low, $315 above EM high).
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 7.4% expected move bounds post-earnings; IV crushes as expected.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the short strikes (>±8.5% move).
Bull Call Spread (Directional)
Buy $290C / Sell $310C 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: $20.00
BE: Strike price + debit
Trigger: Enter on any pullback to $285 or lower before earnings.
Leverages the strong historical beat rate and bullish flow regime. Defines risk and targets a move to the $310 call OI wall, which is just above the expected move's upper bound.
Outperforms: Stock rallies post-earnings, surpassing the expected move's upper bound.
Underperforms: Stock fails to rally or sells off post-earnings.
Long Straddle (Volatility Buy)
Buy $287.50 Straddle 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Cost +/- from $287.50
Trigger: Enter only if IV at 4/24 expiry dips below 32% before earnings.
A lower-probability play given the high IV. Only justified if buying volatility on a dip pre-earnings, betting the market is underpricing potential for a large surprise despite the historical beat trend.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds the priced-in 7.4% expected move by a wide margin.
Underperforms: Stock pins, moves less than expected, and IV crushes heavily.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: 7.4% expected move is significant. A break beyond the short strikes of an iron condor could lead to max loss.
!IV Crush: Estimated 5-7 vol point crush is moderate. Long volatility strategies need a very large move to overcome crush and debit.
!Liquidity: Excellent (2.4M+ OI). No issues with fills for standard strikes.
!Date Uncertainty: Earnings date is inferred from IV kink, not confirmed. Mis-timing could lead to strategy decay.

What to Watch

?Confirmation of earnings date (likely 4/23 AMC)
?IV trajectory on the 4/24 expiration into the event
?Spot price action relative to the $280-$295 zone (near-term max pain levels)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.