Term structure: Near-term ATM IV near VIX, skewed puts; term structure slightly upward
Spot vs MP: Above
GEX regime: Pinning ($+54.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$360.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 100,914 (9.2% below spot)
OI concentrations: Max pain pins: $385 (6/15), $388 (6/17), $385 (6/18); put floor $335-$360
#1Iron condor
Sell 2026-07-10 $382.00/$372.00 put wing and $415.00/$426.00 call wing
Sells wings at expected range, profits from theta and IV contraction.
Mgmt: Monitor pinning; exit at 50% max profit or if spot breaks range. Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: short_put: Open interest below 25.; long_put: Open interest below 25.; long_call: Volume below 5.
#2Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-17 $375.00/$360.00 put spread
Bullish play with defined risk, collects premium.
Mgmt: Adjust if spot drops below $375.
#3Call diagonal
Sell 2026-07-10 $412.00 call / buy 2026-08-21 $420.00 call
Vertical theta play with short leg near expiry.
Mgmt: Roll if short leg challenged.
!Large negative net premium (-$284M) indicates dealer short premium
!Gamma flip at $360 (put OI concentration)