ThetaOwl

FIGR Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

BiasBearish
Confirmation: Spot decisively breaks and holds below the $30 gamma flip level with elevated volume, confirming the bearish premium flow.
Invalidation: Spot reclaims $33 (near-term max pain) with net premium flipping positive and call flow dominating premium, breaking the institutional hedging pattern.
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 5; +0.5 sustained bearish net premium; +0.5 GEX/flow aligned; -1.0 low-flow day with minimal unusual activity; -0.5 spot holding above gamma flip (~$30); -0.5 P/C volume ratio shows retail call interest

Watch next session: Defense of the $30 put wall (5,431 OI) and the ~$30 gamma flip level; Any significant call buying that challenges the $32-$34 resistance zone, particularly at the $32 strike

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$641K bearish

P/C volume ratio: 0.63 — call-dominant volume, but premium tells opposite story

P/C OI ratio: 0.53 — moderate put lean in positioning

The bearish institutional narrative persists, though with slightly less intensity. Net premium remains negative, driven by large, high-strike put purchases, but the magnitude has decreased from -$1.1M to -$641K. The flow is consistent but activity is thin, with minimal new unusual prints. The market remains in a standoff between bearish premium flow and a spot price clinging above critical gamma support.

Notable Prints

#1
FIGR 4/2 $28.50 Put
Vol: 205
OI: 45
Vol/OI: 4.6x
IV: 106.3%
Notional: ~$58K
Intent: Near-term directional put purchase or protective hedge
Dual read: Bearish bet on a drop below $28.50, or a hedge for a long stock position

Read-through: High IV (106.3%) and short-dated nature suggest this is a new, aggressive bet on an immediate move lower. The strike is below the critical $30 support, targeting a breakdown.

#2
FIGR 4/2 $34 Put
Vol: 205
OI: 89
Vol/OI: 2.3x
IV: 96.5%
Notional: ~$70K
Intent: Near-term OTM put purchase
Dual read: Bearish bet on a rejection from resistance, or a hedge against a long position

Read-through: Strike aligns with near-term max pain ($33-$33.50). This could be a bet that spot fails to rally into that zone, or a hedge for someone expecting a failure at resistance.

#3
FIGR 4/24 $32 Call
Vol: 200
OI: 100
Vol/OI: 2.0x
IV: 97.1%
Notional: ~$64K
Intent: Longer-dated call writing or spread leg
Dual read: Directional buy for a Q2 breakout, or sale as part of a covered call/ratio spread

Read-through: This is a repeat of the prior day's top print. The consistency suggests this is likely a roll or adjustment to an existing position (e.g., rolling a short call forward in time), not a new directional bet. It reinforces the overhead resistance narrative.

#4
FIGR 4/24 $30 Call
Vol: 200
OI: 105
Vol/OI: 1.9x
IV: 99.9%
Notional: ~$60K
Intent: Near-ATM call purchase or sale
Dual read: Bullish bet on holding $30 support, or a short call to finance puts

Read-through: Strike is at the critical support level. Given the bearish context and high IV, this could be sold, possibly as a leg to finance the massive OTM put purchases seen in the premium flow data, or as a bullish bet on a bounce.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minor, low-premium activity at $30 and $32. The $30 call shows the largest net positive premium ($344K), likely serving as a gamma hedge for market makers against the massive $30 put wall. Other call activity is negligible.

Put additions: Dominant but slightly reduced: Large premium spent on OTM puts at $40 (-$259K net), $75 (-$231K), $65 (-$172K), and $80 (-$130K). This is a continuation of the institutional hedging or outright bearish positioning, though the total net premium has decreased.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Strongly aligned. Positive GEX (+$1.4M) indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime near current spot. Dealers are long gamma here and will dampen moves, but the dominant dollar flow remains bearish, suggesting any rally will be sold into.

OI clusters: Major put walls remain at $30 (5,431 OI) and $40 (3,937 OI). The $30 wall is critical support. Call OI is dispersed, with the largest cluster at the deep OTM $40 call (9,660 OI), which is likely legacy or speculative lottery tickets, not fresh bullish bets.

Hedging evidence: Overwhelming and consistent. The size and strike selection ($40, $75, $80) of the put purchases are textbook tail-risk or portfolio protection. The consistency day-over-day confirms this is a deliberate, sustained positioning shift.

Max pain context: Spot ($31.83) remains ~3.5% below the near-term max pain ($33 for 3/27). This creates a mild gravitational pull higher, but it is being robustly resisted by the put-heavy OI and bearish dollar flow. The max pain trend is falling, aligning with the bearish flow.

Signal vs Noise

~High call volume (P/C Volume 0.63) is noise—likely retail/small lot speculation, overwhelmed by the institutional put hedging in dollar terms.
~The top unusual prints for the $32 and $30 calls are likely rolls or adjustments to existing positions, not new directional initiation.
~Far OTM calls ($40, $45, $50, $70) and puts ($25, $40) are likely long-dated, low-cost lottery tickets or parts of multi-legged spreads, not immediate directional signals.
~The positive net premium at the $30 call strike is likely offsetting gamma for market makers against the massive $30 put wall, not a standalone bullish bet.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Institutional Hedging Persists: The -$641K net premium, concentrated in OTM puts, remains the dominant signal. Intensity has eased slightly, but the bias is unchanged.
📌Pinning Regime at Critical Support: Positive GEX (+$1.4M) suggests dealers will dampen volatility, pinning spot near $31-$32. The battle is at the $30 put wall/gamma flip.
🧱$30 Put Wall (5,431 OI) is Absolute Support: A decisive break below $30 targets the next major OI cluster at $25. Defense of this level is paramount.
🔄Flow is Stagnant: Unusual activity is minimal and repetitive, indicating position maintenance, not new conviction. The bearish thesis is unchallenged but not accelerating.
🆚Standoff: Max Pain Magnet ($33) vs. Flow & OI Gravity ($30). Flow and positioning suggest the path of least resistance remains toward $30, but dealers are currently damping the move.

Read the Flow analysis for FIGR for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.