Earnings Verdict
FIGR is in a High-vol, Pinning regime with mixed flow and the spot sitting Below max-pain levels; base confidence 4.0/10. Best strategy: short premium into the short-dated expected-move bands (credit strangle or iron approach) or a tight debit straddle if you want pure event exposure — prefer short premium given strong GEX pinning and concentrated put OI around $30. Key risk: a directional gap driven by unexpected guidance or another idiosyncratic catalyst that exceeds the 2–10 day EM ($2.35 to $3.83).
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX pinning; -1 spot 8.1% from MP => 4.0
Most important: Watch IV term-structure and IV into the April 10/April 17 expirations (ATM IV ~104.9% → 93.8%); that trajectory decides whether selling premium is sensible.
📅Next confirmed earnings: 2026-05-15 (TBD). Near-term IV and flows still create tradable setups into short-dated expirations.
📌Gamma flip ~ $30 and concentrated $30 puts (OI=5,476) make $30 a key behavioral level — dealers will likely provide downside buy support near that strike.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Gamma flip at ~$30 (put OI concentration 5,476, ~2.5% below spot); below this dealers start amplifying moves.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-15 (38 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-04-10 (3d): 76% / 2.35 ($28.42 - $33.12)
- 2026-04-17 (10d): 12.4% / 3.83 ($26.95 - $34.60)
- 2026-04-24 (17d): 15.4% / 4.72 ($26.05 - $35.50)
IV Setup
Term structure: Short-dated ATM IV is very rich: 2026-04-10 ATM 104.9% dropping to 93.8% (04-17) and ~88.9% (04-24). The term structure slopes down after the 3d; near-term expirations show a clear kink at the 3–10 day tenor.
Crush estimate: ~11–16 vol pts from 104.9% down toward the mid-90s/upper-80s depending on horizon (expect 10–15 vol-point normalization across the short tenors post-event).
Skew: Put interest concentrated at $30 and strong call OI wall at $35-$45; overall P/C OI ~0.48 and P/C volume 0.50 — skew is balanced with a notable put floor at $25 and concentrated put OI at $30 (5,476 OI).
Historical Context
Beat rate: 50% (1/2 recent reported quarters: beat on 2025-09-30, miss on 2025-12-31)
Avg move vs expected: Mixed: one large positive surprise (EPS surprise +3.62 on 2025-09-30) but sample small and inconsistent vs EM.
Directional bias: Inconsistent — limited sample; one large gap up observed in recent history.
Key Levels
1$30.00 gamma flip
2$33.50 max pain (2026-04-10)
3$28.42 EM 2d lower
Flow Highlights
Large net premium on the $42.50/$40 strikes shows heavy put-side premium at those high strikes (e.g. $42.50: Call $7,538 / Put $408,940 / Net $-401,402; $40: Call $53,478 / Put $380,815 / Net $-327,338).
Institutional-sized put activity (net negative premium) suggests hedging or directional protection well above spot; not immediate pin risk but indicates cautious positioning into larger strikes.
Concentrated put OI at $30.00 (OI=5,476) and $25.00 put floor (OI=3,307) with GEX concentration +$173K at $31.00 and +$197K at $34.00.
Dealer hedging concentrates buying demand around $30–$31 and a pinning tendency toward $33–$35; the $30 put cluster makes $30 a behavioral magnet and increases downside dampening near that level.
Unusual volume in FIGR 2026-04-10 $35.00 call: Vol=2,101 (OTM, 14% from spot) IV=134.8%.
Speculative call aggressor flow into the $35 strikes; possible directional outright or a skewed structured trade — increases short-dated upside gamma concentration.
Strategies
Short credit strangle (near-term, IV sell)
Sell 2026-04-10 33.00 Call and sell 2026-04-10 28.00 Put
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before the April 10 expiry if net IV remains near current ATM (~105%).
Short-dated ATM IV is very high (104.9%); GEX pinning and concentrated put OI near $30 increase the chance of pinning within the EM bands, making sold premium likely to decay quickly.
Outperforms: Stock stays inside the 2-day EM ($28.42 - $33.12) and IV compresses.
Underperforms: A directional gap beyond the 2d EM (>$2.35) or runaway post-event move occurs.
Long near-term straddle (pure event exposure, debit)
Buy 2026-04-10 31.00 Call and buy 2026-04-10 31.00 Put (approx mid prices)
Trigger: Enter within 1 day of event only if you expect a >EM move or if IV does not spike higher into the event.
Mid-priced 31-straddle uses available 31 strikes (call mid ~1.05, put mid ~1.30) and captures event risk; sensible if you expect a large surprise given mixed historical record but large prior beat.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the quoted EM by >30% (realized move >~3.0–4.0) or a big directional surprise occurs.
Underperforms: Stock pins inside EM and IV crushes post-announcement (reduces value even if price moves modestly).
Bull call spread (directional, limited-risk)
Buy 2026-04-17 31.00 Call and sell 2026-04-17 35.00 Call
Trigger: Use if you are biased bullish and want multi-day exposure through the 04-17 expiry; enter 3–7 days before expiry to avoid wide spreads.
Leverages available liquid strikes (31 and 35 exist) and limits downside; the 35 call has significant OI, making the short leg likely to be well priced and partially self-hedging.
Outperforms: Stock trends up into/through the 34–35 area (inside the 10d EM upper rail $34.60) and IV normalizes modestly.
Underperforms: Pinning keeps price below the upper EM rail and upside fails to materialize; heavy call OI walls at 35–45 may compress upside.
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: Event-driven gap could exceed the 2d EM of ±$2.35 (7.6%) — guidance or a surprise catalyst could push price outside expected bands.
!IV crush: Short-dated IV is elevated (ATM 104.9%) — selling collects rich premium but leaves you exposed to tail moves; long straddles can still lose value on IV normalization if move is muted.
!Liquidity/slippage: Some strikes show wide bid/ask spreads (OTM and deep strikes) and concentrated OI at a few strikes (e.g., $30 put OI=5,476; $35 call OI large) — size accordingly.
!Sizing: Given total OI/volume are limited relative to mega-cap names, keep position sizing small and avoid legging large directional positions into the chain with thin asks/bids.
!Pin risk: Dealer GEX concentration (+$1.3M total, concentrated at $31/$34/$35) increases probability of the stock pinning inside EM bands — reduces profitability of large directional bets that need strong follow-through.
What to Watch
?Trajectory of ATM IV for 04-10 and 04-17 (104.9% → 93.8%); if IV rises into expiry, selling becomes less attractive.
?Unusual flow into $35 calls (OTM vol spike) and heavy put premium at $40/$42.50 that indicates institutional hedging.
?Price action around the $30 gamma flip; a break below $30 may accelerate downside due to dealer dynamics.
?Changes in Max Pain trend (currently falling: $34 → $30 over expirations) which could shift pinning bias.