Earnings Verdict
Earnings confirmed for 4/02 AMC (4 days). IV remains extreme (97%), making premium selling the primary play. The spot has rallied toward max pain, and the gamma regime has shifted to pinning, supporting a bounded move. The expected move is ±8.1% ($2.55).
base 5; +1 for extreme IV (97%) and clear crush setup; +1 for historical under-move pattern; +0.5 for spot moving toward max pain and gamma regime shift to pinning; -0.5 for contradictory flow signals and moderate liquidity; +0.5 for earnings date confirmation and EM refinement
Most important: Gamma regime has shifted from 'Trending' to 'Pinning' (GEX +$0.9M), indicating dealer hedging now supports mean reversion and reduces the risk of a runaway move. This significantly improves the odds for range-bound strategies.
🔄CRITICAL CHANGE: Gamma regime shifted from 'Trending' (pro-cyclical) to 'Pinning' (mean-reverting). This is a major positive for range-bound strategies and reduces gap risk.
📉Expected move has contracted to ±$2.55 (8.1%) from prior ±$3.48 (10.9%), reflecting IV normalization and time decay. Adjust strike selection accordingly.
📅Earnings date confirmed for 2026-04-02 (4 days). EPS estimate is $0.21.
Regime Classification
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$0.9M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $-1.1M, P/C 0.52)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 4.8% (spot $31.43 vs MP $33)
Gamma flip: ~$30.00 — Below $30, dealers amplify moves to the downside due to put OI concentration of 5,676 contracts at $30P.
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (4 days)explicit (earnings data) and confirmed by term structure kink
Expected moves:
- 4/02 (4d): ±$2.55 (8.1%) [$28.88 - $33.98]
IV Setup
Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 expiry (97.0% vs 91.2% for 4/10). IV has normalized slightly from prior report's 114% but remains highly elevated.
Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~75-80% range.
Skew: Net premium flow remains negative (-$1.1M), dominated by large put buying at strikes $36-$80, despite a P/C OI ratio of 0.54 favoring calls.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 50% (1/2 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for precise calculation. Prior report indicated historical under-move pattern.
Directional bias: Mixed: Last quarter missed (-33%), quarter before beat massively (+353%).
Key Levels
1$30 gamma flip / major put OI (5,676)
2$31.43 spot
3$33 max pain (3/27)
4$34.50 max pain (4/02)
5EM Bounds: $28.88 - $33.98 (4/02)
6$27.50 major call OI wall
Flow Highlights
Massive net negative premium at $40P (-$362k), $36P (-$259k), $75P (-$236k). Far OTM put dominance persists.
Institutional put buying for catastrophic downside protection remains the dominant flow, indicating deep hedging or speculative fear of a major drop.
Strong net positive premium at $30C (+$329k). Notable call buying at $35C (+$76k).
Significant bullish call flow at the $30 strike, potentially a hedge for long stock or a bet on a bounce from the key gamma level. Supports the pinning thesis.
Strategies
Short Iron Condor (Defined Risk IV Crush)
Sell FIGR $29 Put, Buy FIGR $28 Put, Sell FIGR $34 Call, Buy FIGR $35 Call, exp 4/02
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings (3/31-4/01)
Extreme IV (97%) favors premium selling. This condor collects ~4% of the stock price with defined risk. Short strikes are calibrated just inside the EM bounds ($28.88-$33.98) to maximize credit while respecting the pinning gamma regime and key OI levels ($30P, $34.50 MP).
Outperforms: Stock stays within $29-$34 at expiration. Captures IV crush with defined risk.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes ($29 or $34).
Call Debit Spread (Bullish, Targeting Max Pain)
Buy FIGR $32 Call, Sell FIGR $34 Call, exp 4/02
Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $31.50 and shows momentum toward $33-$34 zone.
Aligns with the spot's position relative to max pain ($33) and the bullish call flow at $30/$35. Targets a move to the $34-$34.50 zone (4/02 max pain). Defined risk, simple to execute. The pinning gamma regime supports a grind higher.
Outperforms: Stock rallies to or above $34 at expiration. Benefits from directional move and some IV crush.
Underperforms: Stock stays flat or declines. Loses full debit if below $32.
Long Put Butterfly (Defined Risk, Bearish/Bound)
Buy 1 FIGR $30 Put, Sell 2 FIGR $28 Puts, Buy 1 FIGR $26 Put, exp 4/02
Trigger: Enter if spot shows weakness and breaks below $31, confirming bearish put flow thesis.
Directly targets the lower EM bound ($28.88) and the high-OI $27.50 level. Defined risk play on a moderate drop to a key support zone. Cheap to enter due to high IV, and the pinning regime makes a collapse below $26 less likely.
Outperforms: Stock lands at $28 at expiration (max gain). Profitable between $28.55 and $27.45.
Underperforms: Stock rallies above $30 or crashes below $26.
Risk Assessment
!Gap Risk: Expected move is ±8.1% ($2.55). The shift to a pinning gamma regime reduces the risk of a runaway move, but the massive OTM put positions represent unresolved tail risk.
!IV Crush Impact: Central to all strategies. IV is 97%; a crush of 15-20 points is estimated. If crush is less, premium-selling plays underperform.
!Liquidity & Execution: Moderate OI (100k) but concentrated. Multi-leg orders may face slippage; prioritize simpler spreads.
!Flow Contradiction: Massive OTM put buying vs. strong near-term call buying at $30C creates a volatile setup. A resolution post-earnings could be sharp.
What to Watch
?Spot price action relative to the $33 max pain and $30 gamma flip. Holding above $31 supports the pinning/bullish thesis.
?Any covering of the massive OTM put positions (e.g., $40P, $75P) – would be a major bullish signal.
?IV on the 4/02 expiry into the event—does it hold or begin to deflate early?