F Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 heavy put flow near-term; +1 negative GEX/flow alignment; -0 low-flow day penalty

Watch next session: $11.50 PUT OI buildup for 4/10; Any call buying to defend $12.00 level

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$2.9M (mixed, skewed by deep OTM calls)

P/C volume ratio: 1.09 — slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.14 — moderate put lean

Flow is mixed with a defensive tilt. While net premium is positive, it's heavily distorted by massive, near-zero premium deep OTM call purchases. The meaningful, high-premium flow is dominated by put buying in the $11.50-$13.00 range, aligning with negative GEX and a spot below max pain.

Notable Prints

F 5/8/26 $13.00 Put

Vol: 7,773

OI: 104

Vol/OI: 74.7x

IV: 43.9%

Notional: ~$1.41M

Intent: Fresh directional put buying / bearish speculation

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold/covered (bullish)

Read-through: High IV (44%) and massive volume/OI spike suggests new bearish bets. The $13 strike is well above spot, targeting a move lower or hedging a long position against a decline.

F 4/10/26 $11.50 Put

Vol: 8,188

OI: 2,504

Vol/OI: 3.3x

IV: 33.0%

Notional: ~$331K

Intent: Near-term directional put buying / earnings hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold/covered (bullish)

Read-through: Expires just before earnings (4/29). This is a near-the-money put (spot $11.54) with significant volume. Likely a hedge against a pre-earnings drop or a bet on continued weakness toward the $11.50 max pain level for that week.

F 12/18/26 $5.00 Call

Vol: 3,248

OI: 936

Vol/OI: 3.5x

IV: 0.0%

Notional: ~$3.12M (Premium)

Intent: Lottery ticket / speculative long-dated call buying

Dual read: Bought to open (bullish) or sold (neutral/bearish)

Read-through: Massive notional premium but 0% IV indicates these are deep, deep OTM calls bought for pennies. This is speculative, low-probability bullish betting, not a near-term directional signal. Distorts net premium metric.

F 5/8/26 $11.50 Put

Vol: 1,821

OI: 133

Vol/OI: 13.7x

IV: 41.4%

Notional: ~$150K

Intent: Mid-term bearish positioning / hedge

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold/covered (bullish)

Read-through: Another put strike with elevated volume on the 5/8 expiry, reinforcing the bearish flow in that monthly cycle. Targets a break below the key $11.50 level.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Deep OTM $4.82-$5.00 calls in Dec'26/Jan'27 (speculative, low IV). Minimal near-term call buying.

Put additions: $11.50-$13.00 puts across Apr'26 and May'26 expiries. Meaningful premium spent.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Negative GEX (-$38.2M) aligns with put-heavy, bearish flow. Market is in a 'trending' gamma regime, favoring continuation of the current move (spot below max pain).

OI clusters: Major PUT walls at $7.67-$8.00 (70k+ OI) and $10.00 (53k+ OI). Major CALL wall at $14.85 (53k OI). Current spot ($11.54) sits between the $10 put wall and $14.85 call wall.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The concentrated put OI at $7.67-$8.00 (70k+ contracts) is a massive, long-dated protective position. Combined with near-term put buying, suggests institutional books are defensively positioned.

Max pain context: Spot ($11.54) is below nearest max pain ($12.00 for 3/27). The overall max pain trend is falling ($12 → $10), indicating put-heavy positioning is increasing over time, pressuring spot lower.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep OTM $4.82/$5.00 Calls (Dec'26/Jan'27): Massive premium flow but 0% IV. These are lottery tickets, not a near-term bullish signal. They distort net premium positively.

~Top OI $7.67-$8.00 Puts: While massive, volume is low today. This is legacy hedging/positioning, not new flow.

~Top OI $19.85 Calls: High OI but low volume. Likely legacy positions or covered call writes, not active directional betting.

Key Conclusions

🐻High-premium flow is bearish, with concentrated put buying at $11.50-$13.00 for April/May.

⚖️Negative GEX (-$38.2M) and spot below max pain support the bearish flow thesis in a 'trending' regime.

🎫Ignore the net premium positivity; it's driven by speculative, deep OTM call lottery tickets.

🛡️Massive, long-dated put OI at $7.67-$8.00 indicates a strong institutional floor/hedge is in place far below.

Read the Flow analysis for F for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.