Term structure: Humped at May expirations (~41%), normal elsewhere (~33-36%)
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 3.8% (spot $11.54 vs MP $12.00)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$38.2M — pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$8.00 — Below ~$8, negative GEX accelerates moves downward
OI concentrations: Massive put OI at $7.85 (70K), $10.00 (53K), $8.00 (53K). Call OI at $19.85 (54K), $14.85 (53K).
#1put spread
Sell $10.00/$9.50 put spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Targets major OI support at $10.00 (53K OI). Spot is $1.54 above short strike. Negative GEX regime favors defined-risk spreads. 17 DTE captures theta decay before earnings.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if price closes below $10.50. Do not hold through earnings on 4/29.
#2calendar spread
Sell May 1st $11.50 put / Buy June 18th $11.50 put
Exploits IV hump (41% in May vs 36% in June). Sell high IV (May), buy lower IV (June). Earnings on 4/29 will crush May IV. Short strike is near spot.
Mgmt: Close after earnings IV crush (target 50% profit). Exit if underlying moves >$1.50 from strike before earnings.
#3covered call
Own stock at ~$11.54, sell $12.50 call 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
For existing shareholders. Spot below max pain suggests upward pinning pressure to $12. Call strike is above expected move ($12.32). Collects premium in a trending (negative GEX) environment.
Mgmt: Roll up and out if tested. Close at 80% profit. Consider assignment if above $12.50 at expiration.
#4iron condor
Sell $10.50/$10.00P x $13.00/$13.50C 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Wide wings ($10-13.50) contain expected move ($10.26-$12.82). Uses higher IV in May expiration. Puts target OI support, calls stay below major OI wall at $14.85.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Adjust if either side tested. Close before earnings if not at target profit.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 (~4 weeks). Never sell naked options through earnings. Close or define risk well before.
!Gamma regime is TRENDING (GEX -$38.2M). This amplifies directional moves, increasing risk for naked or wide spreads.
!Massive put OI at $7.85, $8.00, $10.00 indicates strong institutional downside hedging. A break below $10 could accelerate toward these levels.
!Unusual put volume at $13 (May 8th) and $11.50 (April 10th) may signal near-term bearish positioning.
!Gamma flip estimated at ~$8. Below this level, negative GEX could cause severe downward acceleration. This is the ultimate risk level.
!Net premium flow is positive ($2.9M), but put flow dominates near-term strikes ($11.50, $12.50, $13.00), indicating selling pressure.