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F

Ford Motor CompanyClose $13.06EOD only

Max Pain

$13.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.45

3.5% from close

Price Gap

-0.06

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.72

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects F options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

F Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish with structural drift lower. Confidence: 3.5/10. Spot is pinned near-term but faces strong gravitational pull from negative GEX and a clear multi-month downtrend in max pain. The primary conflict is between short-term pinning and longer-term negative positioning.

Confidence:

3.5 / 10

Base 3.5; GEX -$38.2M (trending), DEX +46.6M shares (dealer long), and falling MP trend all signal bearish pressure. Near-term pin at $12 provides a weak magnet, but the regime is structurally weak.

Supports: GEX -$38.2M (trending), DEX +46.6M shares (dealer long), falling MP trend ($12 → $10), P/C ratios >1.0
Conflicts: Spot near 2-day EM high ($11.78), immediate max pain at $12 provides a short-term bullish magnet.

📉GEX -$38.2M signals trending, not pinning, regime.

🧲Max pain ladder trends down from $12 to $10 over 13 expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 41% is elevated (Normal regime) — selling premium has edge on vol, but negative GEX warns against short premium in direction of trend.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$38.2M (Trending) — dealers are net short gamma, amplifying spot moves. Hedging flows will accelerate a break from the $11.30-$11.78 range.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem +$2.9M but P/C ratios >1.0 (Mixed) — put volume and OI dominate, but premium flow is slightly positive, indicating a mix of hedging and speculation.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $11.54 is 3.8% below nearest max pain ($12) — expect a weak upward drift into Friday's expiry, but the longer-term MP trend is lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a consistent downtrend from $12 to $10 across 13 expirations. GEX sign is stable negative, and put OI dominance is structural. This suggests a bearish drift over the next 2-4 weeks, not just a one-week pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$11.30$11.78

Driven by Friday's $12 max pain pin; break below $11.30 accelerates sell-off.

Next 1 week

$11.02$12.06

Post-Friday expiry, negative GEX and MP trend reassert; resistance at $12.06.

Next 2 weeks

$10.88$12.19

Structural put OI at $8-$10 and falling MP provide gravity; call OI wall at $15 caps rallies.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $12 (2026-03-27); $12 (2026-04-02); $12 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $11.30/$11.78; 1w $11.02/$12.06

Support: $7.85 · $10.00 · $8.00

Resistance: $19.85 · $14.85

Gamma flip: ~$7.85 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,361

Structural: **Call OI wall $15-$20** (massive 50k+ OI) caps any major rally. **Put floor $8-$10** (70k+ OI at $7.85) provides distant but solid support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-38.2M

DEX: +46.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$8 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 70,361)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$8 is far below, indicating no meaningful pin near spot. With GEX negative, dealer hedging will **accelerate moves away from current price** — selling on dips, buying on rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 41% is elevated — premium selling is attractive on vol grounds, but must be directional given GEX.

Term structure: **Humped around May 1 earnings** (41.1% IV). 2-day IV (32.8%) is cheaper than 10-day (34.0%) — supports buying near-term vol vs selling longer-dated.

Skew: **May 1 expiry (41.1% IV) vs April 17 (33.2%) offers ~8 vol-pt differential** — supports a reverse calendar (sell May, buy April) to harvest earnings vol.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$2.9M slightly bullish; P/C vol 1.09, P/C OI 1.14 — put dominance in volume/OI conflicts with net premium.

Directional prints: $11.50P 4/10 vol 8,188 vs OI 2,504 (3.3x) — could be bought puts for downside or sold for premium. $13.00P 5/8 vol 7,773 vs OI 104 (74.7x) at 43.9% IV — likely **bought puts** for longer-dated protection given high IV and low OI.

Unusual: Deep ITM $5.00 LEAPS calls (12/26, 1/27) show massive premium inflow ($3.1M+) — likely **financing/hedging for stock positions**, not directional bets.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$8 is far away** — no near-term stabilization level; breaks can be sharp.

!**Earnings 4/29** priced into May 1 IV (41.1%) — vol crush risk post-event.

!**Dealer long delta (DEX +46.6M shares)** — they will sell into rallies, reinforcing resistance.

!**Massive put OI at $7.85-$10** — if breached, could trigger accelerated selling toward that floor.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Weak	N/A	Negative GEX, falling MP trend, and dealer selling on rallies.
Short Stock	Moderate-Strong	Entry near $12 (max pain/resistance), target $10.50-$11.00.	Near-term pin to $12 could cause a squeeze; defined risk via options is better.
Covered Call	Moderate	If long stock, sell $12.50C or $13C Apr-17 (30-45 DTE) against shares.	Stock drifts lower; call premium insufficient to offset capital loss.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell $11P or $10.5P Apr-17; better: sell $11/$10 bear put spread.	Negative GEX favors directional puts, not short premium; defined-risk bear spread is safer.
Long Calls	Weak	N/A — regime opposes bullish directional bets.	Call OI wall, dealer selling, and negative GEX.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $11.5P / Sell $10P Apr-17 (30-45 DTE) for ~$0.60 debit.	Time decay if pin holds; manage on break below $11.30.
Iron Condor	Weak	N/A — GEX negative invalidates range-bound strategy per rating thresholds.	Trending regime breaks wings.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate	Reverse Calendar: Sell $11.5P May-1 (41.1% IV), Buy $11.5P Apr-17 (33.2% IV).	Earnings date mismatch; requires stable price near strike.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Weak	If bullish long-term, buy $10C Jan-27, sell monthly $12.50C against it.	Near-term bearish pressure erodes short call premium; LEAPS suffers time decay.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (30-45 DTE)

Buy $11.5P / Sell $10P Apr-17

Directly expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis with defined risk. Strikes target the 1-week EM low ($11.02) and key put OI support ($10).

Debit: $0.55-$0.65

Max loss: $0.55

BE: $10.95

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max value ($0.80-$0.95). Exit if spot closes above $12.06 (1w EM high). Roll down if spot approaches $10.50.

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure, avoiding the pitfalls of short premium in a trending regime.

Short Stock Hedge (Near-Term)

Buy $12P Apr-2 (Weekly)

A tactical, low-cost hedge against a failed pin. If spot cannot reclaim $12 by Friday expiry, this protects or profits from a quick drop. Benefits from elevated near-term IV (32.8%).

Debit: $0.15-$0.20

Max loss: $0.15

BE: $11.85

Mgmt: Binary trade: hold through Friday expiry. Sell for profit if spot breaks below $11.50; let expire worthless if pin holds at $12.

Traders short stock or considering a short entry, looking for cheap protection against a pin-break.

Reverse Calendar Put (Earnings Vol Harvest)

Sell $11.5P May-1 / Buy $11.5P Apr-17

Capitalizes on the 8 vol-pt differential around earnings. You are short high earnings IV and long lower non-earnings IV, betting on vol compression or a stable price. Aligns with multi-week thesis of range-bound drift near $11.50.

Credit: $0.30-$0.40

Max loss: Unlimited (short put risk)

BE: N/A - Vol trade

Mgmt: Close for profit if IV differential collapses post-earnings or if Apr-17 expiry passes. Exit if spot moves decisively outside $11.00-$12.00.

Vol traders comfortable with earnings event risk, seeking to harvest rich near-dated IV.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $12.00 (max pain) and shows rejection (5-min candle close below $11.95) → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy $11.5P / Sell $10P Apr-17.

IFSpot breaks below 2-day EM low ($11.30) on increasing volume → Buy weekly $11P Apr-2 for momentum follow-through.

Exit Triggers

EXITVIX spikes >45 with spot below $11.00 → Take profits on all long put positions (vol expansion).

EXITPost-earnings (post 4/29), May-1 IV drops below 35% → Close reverse calendar put spread for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bearish drift toward $10-$11, pressured by negative GEX and a falling max pain ladder. Invalidation is a sustained break above $12.06. The regime favors directional bearish plays and volatility arbitrage over range-bound strategies. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread (Apr-17) for defined-risk downside, 2) Weekly put as a tactical pin-break hedge, 3) Reverse calendar to harvest rich earnings vol. Choose based on conviction and risk tolerance: the spread for pure direction, the weekly for event risk, the calendar for vol specialists.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.