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CRWV

CoreWeave, Inc.Close $105.89EOD only
Max Pain
$106.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$7.40
7.0% from close
Price Gap
+0.11
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
7
Low premium
P/C OI
0.90
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Range bias
Published snapshot: May 26, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CRWV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 26, 2026 close
CRWV Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

CRWV shows a high-vol, pinning regime with dealers long gamma (GEX +$61.3M) and concentrated call flow into strikes $100-$115. With earnings scheduled 2026-05-13 (33 days), the best immediate approach is a directional/volatility-aware trade: favor defined-risk premium selling inside the expected move or a volatility-dominant long straddle if you expect a beat/guide-driven large gap. Key risk is a guidance-driven gap that exceeds the 23.9% EM window around the event, which would quickly overwhelm pinning pressure and produce a sharp one-sided gap.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 24.4% from MP
Most important: Monitor call-heavy dealer positioning at $100/$105/$110 — if spot drifts toward those pins, dealers will try to pin into the event; a guidance shock could override the pin and cause a large gap.
📈GEX +$61.3M concentrated at $100-$115 — dealers likely to attempt pinning into earnings.
⚠️Historical EPS surprises are mixed (beat rate 25%); a single large miss (2025-03) produced a sharp downside gap.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-13 (33 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-15 (35d):  : : :

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-to-mid term ATM vol is elevated and rising into the May window: ATM 35d = 97.6% (2026-05-15), 42d = 97.8% (2026-05-22). Short-dated 7-14d IV sits ~89% but the curve steepens into the event.

Crush estimate: ~20 vol pts; IV likely to reprice lower over 1-2 weeks post-release (from high-90s toward mid-70s/low-80s as realized vol replaces event premium).

Skew: Call-side premium is heavier (large call flow and call OI concentration $100-$130) while puts show concentrated OI at $70. Overall skew is call-rich ahead of earnings.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 25% (1/4 recent quarters beat estimates)

Avg move vs expected: Not provided as a computed field; recent quarter outcomes show mixed results with at least one large miss (2025-03-31 EPS actual -1.40 vs est -0.22).

Directional bias: Mixed-to-down (big negative surprise in 2025-03 produced a large downside gap).

Key Levels

1$91.90
2$100.00
3$105.00
4$110.00

Flow Highlights

Heavy call premium flow at $100 (Call $29,246,070 / Put $7,135,838 / Net $22,110,232) and $110 (Call $16,590,052 / Put $1,136,105 / Net $15,453,946).

Large institutional bullish exposure concentrated between $100-$115; dealers will hedge by selling calls and buying stock, creating pinning pressure toward those strikes.

Large put OI cluster at $70 (OI=41,700) and notable unusual volume on $85-$86 puts for 2026-04-17 expirations.

Tail downside protection exists far below spot; current flow suggests buyers are focused on upside options while some participants are buying deep OTM puts as catastrophe hedges.

Strategies

Defined-risk iron condor (sell premium into pin)
Sell 2026-05-15 95/90 put spread and sell 2026-05-15 110/115 call spread (use available strikes: 95/90 and 110/115).
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: $3.50
BE: $92.50 (lower) / $113.50 (upper)
Trigger: Enter 5-10 days before earnings if spot is between $98-$106 and IV remains elevated.
High dealer GEX and concentrated call OI at $110/$105 increase chance of pinning; collect rich premium (net premium $115.1M marketwide) with defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock pins inside the EM guardrails ($91.90-$112.10) and vol compresses post-release.
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap > EM (big beat or miss) causes a large one-sided move through the wings.
Long straddle (vol play)
Buy 2026-05-15 $100 straddle (use $100 strikes available).
Debit: $24.32-$26.00
Max loss: $26.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx $74/126 (using ±24.32 EM from 05-15)
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if you expect a directional beat or guidance trigger and IV hasn't run up beyond the current front-mid curve.
EM (35d) ±24.32 mirrors straddle cost; use if you expect a large surprise — historical beat rate is low but surprises can be large.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the expected move by >20-30% or a large guidance surprise occurs.
Underperforms: Stock pins near dealer levels and post-release IV collapses without a large move.
Directional call diagonal (debit with skew edge)
Buy 2026-05-15 $105 call and sell 2026-06-19 $115 call (roll-forward/cost reduce using available strikes).
Debit: $1.50-$4.00
Max loss: $6.00
Max gain: Upside to infinity (reduced by short call cap beyond $115)
BE: Entry-dependent; cheaper than a straight long call due to short further-dated call premium.
Trigger: Enter when you have a directional catalyst view for a moderate rally and want to reduce front-month IV drag.
Call-rich flow and dealer pinning toward $105-$110 favors skewed bullish exposure with defined financing.
Outperforms: Stock gaps up and sustains beyond $110 into the short call expiry while front-month IV falls.
Underperforms: No material move or stock sells off; strong IV crush erodes front-month long leg.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Earnings/guidance could trigger a one-sided gap that exceeds the 35d EM ±24.32 (23.9%) and blow through pin levels.
!IV crush: Front-mid IV is already elevated (ATM 35d = 97.6%); long-vol trades need a move larger than the priced-in EM to overcome post-event IV collapse.
!Liquidity: Options show healthy OI (over 1.6M total) and concentrated liquid strikes at $100/$105/$110, but wider bids on far OTM strikes mean fills can be worse than mid-quote.
!Sizing: Given regime (High vol + pinning) keep sizing conservative on pure long vol (straddle) — prefer smaller notional or defined-risk structures unless conviction is high.
!Pin override risk: Dealer pinning can be overridden by heavy directional flow or surprise guidance; if you short premium, consider stop-loss rules if spot breaks through a pin with acceleration.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the May 13 event — watch ATM 35d (97.6%) and whether front IV > mid IV (steepening).
?Spot approach to $100/$105/$110 — GEX concentrations (+$2.6M at $100, +$8.2M at $110) create pin risk.
?Unusual activity on $83-$86 puts (recent heavy volume) which could signal asymmetric downside hedge demand.
?Large block buys or flips in call flow at $100-$115 that would increase dealer hedging pressure.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.