Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 2026-05-13 (37 days out). IV elevated (ATM 93.2% for 4/10), but term structure shows no sharp kink, suggesting earnings not imminent. Best strategy: sell premium via iron condor given high IV and pinning regime, but risk of gap beyond EM due to high volatility.
base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.2% from MP
Most important: No IV term structure kink indicates earnings not priced into near-term expirations; use 4/24 or 5/01 for earnings plays.
📅Earnings expected 2026-05-13 (37 days out)
⚠️No IV term structure kink—earnings not priced into near-term expirations
📊Historical EPS beat rate only 25%, surprises volatile
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
High (IV 88.7%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$7.2M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$15.7M, P/C 1.18)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain $80
Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Below $70, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-05-13 (37 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (18d): ±$12.45 (15.4%)
- 5/01 (25d): ±$14.88 (18.4%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Steeply downward-sloping (93.2% for 4/10 to 86.8% for 4/17), no sharp kink near earnings date
Crush estimate: ~5-10 vol pts post-earnings if IV spikes into event
Skew: Puts richer than calls (P/C vol ratio 1.18)
Historical Context
Beat rate: 25% (1/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient data for move vs EM; EPS surprises volatile (-5.38 to +0.54)
Directional bias: Mixed (2 down, 1 up, 1 miss)
Key Levels
1$70.00
2$75.00
3$80.00
4$85.00
5$90.00
6$105.00
Flow Highlights
Heavy $83C 4/10 buying (2,920 vol vs 1,496 OI)
Near-term upside bet, possibly gamma hedging
Large $75P 5/01 unusual activity (Vol=1,868, OI=147, 12.7x)
Earnings downside protection or speculative put buying
Strategies
Iron condor
Sell $70/$75P x $90/$95C 4/24
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV > 85%
High IV (86.9% for 4/24) and pinning regime favor premium selling; support at $70/$75 and resistance at $90 provide guardrails.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $75-$90 range (within EM bounds)
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >50% or breaks $70/$95
Long straddle
Buy $80 straddle 5/01
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >20%
Historical EPS surprises volatile; high IV (88.2% for 5/01) but crush risk manageable if timed well.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds 18.4% EM (e.g., >$14.88 move)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $80 and IV crushes post-earnings
Put credit spread
Sell $70/$75P 4/17
Trigger: Enter now for theta decay, close before earnings
Pinning GEX (+$7.2M) and put OI clusters at $70/$75 provide strong support; high put skew (P/C 1.18) offers rich premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $75 (support at $70/$75 holds)
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $70 (gamma flip at $70 accelerates losses)
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: EM ±15.4% for 4/24, but historical surprises volatile; could exceed if guidance shifts.
!IV crush: Estimated 5-10 vol pts post-earnings; long straddle at risk if IV drops sharply.
!Liquidity: Moderate (total OI 1.6M, volume 91K); stick to strikes with high OI (e.g., $70, $85, $90).
!Sizing: Reduce position sizes due to high volatility and gap risk; use spreads to limit loss.
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into May for earnings kink
?Unusual put activity at $75P 5/01
?Spot vs max pain pins ($80, $82, $83)