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CHWY

Chewy, Inc.Close $20.17EOD only

Max Pain

$21.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.83

4.1% from close

Price Gap

+1.33

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.75

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CHWY options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CHWY Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 26, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a strong gravitational pull toward $25-$27 max pain levels. Confidence: 5/10. The market is pinned by massive positive GEX, but sits above key pain points, suggesting a drift lower is likely. Mixed flow and high volatility add noise.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +2 for strong GEX pinning; -1 for spot 8% above nearest MP; -1 for mixed flow and high IV.

Supports: GEX +$21.8M (strong pinning), rising MP trend ($25→$30), P/C OI 0.66 (call-heavy structure).
Conflicts: Spot ($27.01) above MP ($25), net premium slightly negative (-$528K), IV extremely high (61.4%).

📌Strong GEX pin concentrated near $25-$27

⚠️Spot 8% above nearest max pain — pin is a magnet below

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 61.4% is extremely high — favors premium selling for decay, but tail risk is elevated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$21.8M indicates strong dealer pinning, suppressing volatility near spot.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with slight net negative premium; call OI dominance but recent put activity.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $27.01 is above the $25-$27 MP cluster — gravity pulls price lower toward pain.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent rise from $25 to $30 over 15 expirations, and GEX sign is stable positive. The pinning regime is not just a weekly event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$26.27$27.75

GEX pin and spot above MP favor a grind down; break above $27.75 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$25.32$28.71

MP at $25 and $27.50 call OI wall create a defined range; pin drift lower dominates.

Next 2 weeks

$24.66$29.37

MP rises to $27.00 (4/10); flow and OI structure support a slow climb if pin holds.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $25 (2026-03-27); $25 (2026-04-02); $27 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $26.27/$27.75; 1w $25.32/$28.71

Support: $22.00 · $20.00 · $25.00

Resistance: $35.00 · $30.00 · $27.50

Gamma flip: ~$22.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,778

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $30 and $35 cap significant upside. Put floors at $22 and $20 provide distant but strong support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+21.8M

DEX: +8.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$22 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,778)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated; a move below ~$22 flips gamma negative, accelerating selling. A move above $30 encounters massive call OI, slowing ascent.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 61.4% is extremely elevated — stock-specific vol is rich, creating edge for defined-risk premium sellers.

Term structure: Steeply inverted near-term: 0dte 65.5% > 6dte 56.8%. Kink at 5/01 (55.8%) likely due to earnings. Back-end (6+ months) flattens around 56%.

Skew: Near-term vol rich vs. 1-month — supports short-dated premium sales or calendar spreads selling the 0-6dte vs. buying 21+dte.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Slightly negative at -$528K, indicating mixed sentiment.

Directional prints: $28C 4/2 vol 2,392 vs OI 5,195 — could be call selling against existing position or new bullish bets. $26P 4/2 vol 2,726 vs OI 194 (14x) — likely bought puts for near-term hedge or bearish speculation.

Unusual: $27.50P 12/18 vol 300 vs OI 15 (20x) at 52.6% IV — long-dated protective put purchase or strategic bearish positioning.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip zone ~$22 — break below accelerates downside.

!Extremely high IV (61.4%) implies large potential moves; short premium carries tail risk.

!Inverted term structure — near-term vol crush post-pin release (after 3/27) is a risk for long vol positions.

!Macro/sector sentiment shift could overwhelm the technical pin.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Not recommended for new entries. Existing holders should hedge.	Pin drags price lower toward $25; high IV makes options hedges expensive.
Short stock	Moderate	Consider on a failed rally above $27.75, target $25.32.	Strong positive GEX pin can cause painful, grinding reversals higher.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell 4/10 $28.00 Call (~$1.00-1.20 credit).	Capped upside if pin breaks higher; stock decline not fully hedged.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 $25.00 Put (~$1.10-1.30 credit) or $25/$22.50 Put Spread.	Assignment at $25 if pin breaks lower; defined risk with spread.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — high IV and pinning regime decay premium rapidly.	Vol crush and theta decay in a range-bound, high-vol environment.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 4/10 $27 Put / Sell $25 Put (~$0.80-1.00 debit), targeting move to MP.	Pinning can limit downside move; high IV makes long premium expensive.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	4/10 Exp: $25/$22.50P x $28/$30C. Sell at EM bounds and key OI levels.	VIX and IV are high, but GEX positive supports range. Defined risk.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Sell 4/2 $27.50 Call (IV 55.3%) / Buy 4/17 $27.50 Call (IV 53.3%) for small credit. Bet on near-term vol crush.	Directional move through strike hurts; small vol differential.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/27 $20 Call (IV ~55.5%), sell 4/10 $28 Call against it. Leverages long delta with premium collection.	Capital intensive; high LEAPS IV; pin limits short call effectiveness.

Top Plays

Iron Condor (Multi-Week Range)

Sell 4/10 $25/$22.50 Put Spread & $28/$30 Call Spread.

Capitalizes on strong GEX pinning and high IV by selling premium at the expected move bounds ($25.32/$28.71) and key OI levels. The multi-week duration aligns with the persistent pinning regime.

Credit: $0.45-$0.60

Max loss: $1.95

BE: Puts: $24.55, Calls: $28.55

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Adjust if spot breaches $25 or $28.50. Exit entirely on close outside $24.40/$28.80.

Traders seeking defined-risk, theta-positive exposure in a high-vol, range-bound name.

Cash-Secured Put (Targeting Pin)

Sell 4/10 $25.00 Put.

Directly targets the strong max pain magnet at $25. High IV provides attractive premium for accepting assignment at a key support level. The 14 DTE allows time for the pin to work.

Credit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: Assignment at $25 less credit

BE: $23.80

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot approaches $24.50. Take profit at 70% of max credit. Accept assignment if put to, as $25 is a core support/pain level.

Investors willing to own CHWY at $25 or traders seeking premium with a bullish-to-neutral bias.

Bear Put Spread (Tactical Downside)

Buy 4/2 $27 Put / Sell $25 Put.

**Why 45 DTE (4/17) is better:** The 4/2 expiry is too short if the pin grinds slowly. The 4/17 spread (21 DTE) provides more time for the spot-to-MP convergence thesis to play out, reduces gamma risk, and still captures high IV. The extra time improves risk/reward by reducing the chance of a whipsaw at expiry.

Debit: $0.85-$1.05

Max loss: $1.15

BE: $26.15

Mgmt: Close at 50-80% max profit if spot hits $25.50. Stop out if spot reclaims $27.75 (upper 2d EM).

Traders with a bearish lean wanting defined risk to play the spot-down-to-MP drift, preferring more time than a weekly.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to $27.50-27.75 (upper 2d EM) and stalls → Enter Iron Condor (4/10 $25/$22.50P x $28/$30C) or sell a call spread.

IFSpot declines to $25.50 and holds (approaching MP support) → Sell 4/10 $25.00 Cash-Secured Put.

Exit Triggers

EXITIV on 4/10 expiry drops below 50% (vol crush) → Take profit on all short premium positions (Iron Condor, CSP) at 80%+ of max.

EXITSpot closes below $22.00 (gamma flip zone) → Exit all short put positions and bear spreads; reassess for potential acceleration lower.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: CHWY is pinned with positive GEX, magnetized lower toward the $25-$27 max pain cluster. Invalidation is a sustained move above $28 or below $22. The regime favors selling premium (Iron Condors, CSPs) due to high IV and pinning, with tactical bear put spreads for the spot-to-MP convergence. Top plays: 1) Iron Condor for defined-risk range traders, 2) CSP for premium collectors/accumulators, 3) Bear Put Spread for directional bears wanting more time.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 26, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.