CAT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; +1 for large bearish premium prints; -1 for mixed flow regime; -0.5 for spot at max pain pinning

Watch next session: $790 Put OI and flow for downside conviction; Any defensive call buying near $700-$720

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$36.3M (misleading - dominated by one large bullish print)

P/C volume ratio: 1.11 — slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.13 — moderate put lean in positioning

Flow is mixed with a bearish undercurrent. While net premium is positive, it's heavily skewed by a single deep OTM call trade. The volume and OI ratios show a put bias, and large bearish premium prints suggest institutional hedging or downside bets.

Notable Prints

CAT 4/10 $760 Call

Vol: 734

OI: 172

Vol/OI: 4.3x

IV: 39.9%

Notional: ~$5.2M (734 * $708.46 * 100)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout bet) or sold/covered (neutral to bearish)

Read-through: Given the high IV (39.9%) vs. ATM (46.9%), this is likely bought. A bet on a >7% move higher in 10 days, aligning with the expected move to $754.79.

CAT 4/10 $750 Call

Vol: 630

OI: 212

Vol/OI: 3.0x

IV: 40.5%

Notional: ~$4.5M

Intent: Fresh directional call buying

Dual read: Similar to $760C, a bullish bet or part of a call spread

Read-through: Clusters with the $760C, suggesting a concentrated bullish bet on the April 10th expiry, targeting the $750-$760 zone.

CAT 6/18 $730 Call

Vol: 302

OI: 103

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 45.3%

Notional: ~$2.1M

Intent: Long-dated call purchase

Dual read: Directional bet or hedge against a short position

Read-through: A longer-dated, closer-to-the-money bet. The IV of 45.3% is near the term structure ATM (44.3%), suggesting a vanilla long call. This provides a bullish counterpoint to the nearer-term activity.

CAT 4/2 $760 Call

Vol: 343

OI: 129

Vol/OI: 2.7x

IV: 37.7%

Notional: ~$2.4M

Intent: Very short-dated, high-strike call purchase

Dual read: Lottery ticket or part of a complex spread (e.g., call butterfly)

Read-through: Extremely aggressive bet, needing a >7% move in 2 days. Low probability, high leverage play. Could be a speculative buy or a spread leg sold against the 4/10 calls.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive OTM calls at $750/$760 for April, some $730 for June

Put additions: Significant premium flow into $790 puts (-$3M net), large OI at $700/$600 puts

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$1.4M) suggests pinning, but large DEX (5.6M shares equiv) and bearish premium prints indicate underlying hedging pressure.

OI clusters: Major put walls at $700 (4,373 OI) and $600 (1,793 OI). Call wall at $810 (3,209 OI).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence. The massive $3M net premium into $790 puts is a clear institutional-sized hedge or downside bet. OI concentration in deep puts ($480, $535, $540) also suggests longer-term protection.

Max pain context: Spot ($708.46) is pinned exactly at the nearest max pain ($708). The long-term max pain trend is sharply lower ($708 → $620), aligning with heavy put OI at lower strikes.

Signal vs Noise

~The $135 Call with +$1.23M net premium is a deep OTM, low-dollar trade. Likely a cheap, long-dated speculative buy or part of a far-OTM ratio spread. Not a direct directional signal.

~The $440 Call with +$2.23M net premium is another deep OTM trade. Given its distance (~38% below spot), this is almost certainly a bullish hedge for a large short stock position or part of a complex structure, not a pure directional long call bet.

~Some of the call volume in the 'Notable Prints' could be legs of call spreads (e.g., buying $760C, selling $810C) given the large OI call wall at $810.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Spot is pinned at max pain with positive GEX, suggesting short-term range-bound/mean-reverting action near $708.

🛡️Large, bearish institutional hedging is evident via the $790 put flow (-$3M net) and deep put OI clusters.

🎯Aggressive call buying at $750-$760 provides a bullish counter-narrative but appears more speculative vs. the institutional put hedging.

📉The long-term max pain trend is decisively lower ($708 → $620), supported by heavy put OI at $600 and below.

Read the Flow analysis for CAT for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.