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CAT

Caterpillar, Inc.Close $872.56EOD only

Max Pain

$880.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$26.05

3.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.28

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CAT Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 5; +1 for large bearish premium prints; -1 for mixed flow regime; -0.5 for spot at max pain pinning

Watch next session: $790 Put OI and flow for downside conviction; Any defensive call buying near $700-$720

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$36.3M (misleading - dominated by one large bullish print)

P/C volume ratio: 1.11 — slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 1.13 — moderate put lean in positioning

Flow is mixed with a bearish undercurrent. While net premium is positive, it's heavily skewed by a single deep OTM call trade. The volume and OI ratios show a put bias, and large bearish premium prints suggest institutional hedging or downside bets.

Notable Prints

CAT 4/10 $760 Call

Vol: 734

OI: 172

Vol/OI: 4.3x

IV: 39.9%

Notional: ~$5.2M (734 * $708.46 * 100)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout bet) or sold/covered (neutral to bearish)

Read-through: Given the high IV (39.9%) vs. ATM (46.9%), this is likely bought. A bet on a >7% move higher in 10 days, aligning with the expected move to $754.79.

CAT 4/10 $750 Call

Vol: 630

OI: 212

Vol/OI: 3.0x

IV: 40.5%

Notional: ~$4.5M

Intent: Fresh directional call buying

Dual read: Similar to $760C, a bullish bet or part of a call spread

Read-through: Clusters with the $760C, suggesting a concentrated bullish bet on the April 10th expiry, targeting the $750-$760 zone.

CAT 6/18 $730 Call

Vol: 302

OI: 103

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 45.3%

Notional: ~$2.1M

Intent: Long-dated call purchase

Dual read: Directional bet or hedge against a short position

Read-through: A longer-dated, closer-to-the-money bet. The IV of 45.3% is near the term structure ATM (44.3%), suggesting a vanilla long call. This provides a bullish counterpoint to the nearer-term activity.

CAT 4/2 $760 Call

Vol: 343

OI: 129

Vol/OI: 2.7x

IV: 37.7%

Notional: ~$2.4M

Intent: Very short-dated, high-strike call purchase

Dual read: Lottery ticket or part of a complex spread (e.g., call butterfly)

Read-through: Extremely aggressive bet, needing a >7% move in 2 days. Low probability, high leverage play. Could be a speculative buy or a spread leg sold against the 4/10 calls.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Aggressive OTM calls at $750/$760 for April, some $730 for June

Put additions: Significant premium flow into $790 puts (-$3M net), large OI at $700/$600 puts

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive GEX (+$1.4M) suggests pinning, but large DEX (5.6M shares equiv) and bearish premium prints indicate underlying hedging pressure.

OI clusters: Major put walls at $700 (4,373 OI) and $600 (1,793 OI). Call wall at $810 (3,209 OI).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence. The massive $3M net premium into $790 puts is a clear institutional-sized hedge or downside bet. OI concentration in deep puts ($480, $535, $540) also suggests longer-term protection.

Max pain context: Spot ($708.46) is pinned exactly at the nearest max pain ($708). The long-term max pain trend is sharply lower ($708 → $620), aligning with heavy put OI at lower strikes.

Signal vs Noise

~The $135 Call with +$1.23M net premium is a deep OTM, low-dollar trade. Likely a cheap, long-dated speculative buy or part of a far-OTM ratio spread. Not a direct directional signal.

~The $440 Call with +$2.23M net premium is another deep OTM trade. Given its distance (~38% below spot), this is almost certainly a bullish hedge for a large short stock position or part of a complex structure, not a pure directional long call bet.

~Some of the call volume in the 'Notable Prints' could be legs of call spreads (e.g., buying $760C, selling $810C) given the large OI call wall at $810.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Spot is pinned at max pain with positive GEX, suggesting short-term range-bound/mean-reverting action near $708.

🛡️Large, bearish institutional hedging is evident via the $790 put flow (-$3M net) and deep put OI clusters.

🎯Aggressive call buying at $750-$760 provides a bullish counter-narrative but appears more speculative vs. the institutional put hedging.

📉The long-term max pain trend is decisively lower ($708 → $620), supported by heavy put OI at $600 and below.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.