Home Options CATReports

CAT

Caterpillar, Inc.Close $872.56EOD only

Max Pain

$880.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$26.05

3.0% from close

Price Gap

+7.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.28

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects CAT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

CAT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight bullish pin to $708 (max pain). Confidence: 9/10. Spot is pinned at the gamma flip and max pain, with positive GEX and DEX reinforcing the range. The primary conflict is the mixed flow and high absolute IV.

Confidence:

9 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP

Supports: GEX +$1.4M (pinning), DEX +5.6M shares (net long), spot at max pain/gamma flip
Conflicts: Mixed flow regime, P/C ratios >1.0 (slight put skew), IV 48.6% is elevated

📌Spot pinned at $708 gamma flip and max pain

📈Positive DEX (5.6M shares) suggests dealer long stock hedge

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 48.6% is high but 'Normal' regime — premium selling has edge on mean reversion.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$1.4M concentrated near $700 — strong pinning force through near-term expiry.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium +$36.3M bullish but P/C ratios >1.0 show put activity.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at MP — gravity is neutral; no strong drift signal.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends down ($708 → $620) over 16 expirations, GEX sign stable positive, flow mixed but consistent. The pin is strongest this week, but the structural put OI floor suggests a longer-term range.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$676.60$740.32

Gamma pin dominates; break below $700 or above $720 needed for momentum.

Next 1 week

$662.14$754.79

Next week's max pain at $695 suggests slight downward gravity post-pin release.

Next 2 weeks

$651.61$765.31

Structural OI defines wider bounds; drift toward lower max pain levels likely.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $708 (2026-03-27); $695 (2026-04-02); $700 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $676.60/$740.32; 1w $662.14/$754.79

Support: $700.00 · $480.00 · $600.00

Resistance: $810.00 · $720.00

Gamma flip: ~$700.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,373

Structural: **Call OI wall $810-$810** is a massive cap. **Put floor $450-$640** provides distant but heavy support, with $600 and $640 as nearer-term pillars.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+1.4M

DEX: +5.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$700 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,373)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$700. Put OI of 4,373 at $700 creates a magnet. Dealer long gamma above $700 (hedging by selling rallies), short gamma below (hedging by buying dips), reinforcing the pin.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 48.6% is very high — premium selling is attractive for range-bound strategies.

Term structure: **Steeply inverted**: 2d IV 54.9% > 10d 46.9% > 17d 44.4%. Kink at May 1 (47.6%) likely pricing earnings.

Skew: High near-term vol vs. mid-term supports **calendar spreads** (sell front, buy back).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$36.3M bullish; but P/C vol 1.11 and P/C OI 1.13 show put skew.

Directional prints: $760C 4/10 vol 734 vs OI 172 (4.3x) — likely bought calls for upside breakout. $790 Put net premium -$3.0M — large institutional put buy (hedge) or sell (premium). Given mixed flow, the put sale interpretation aligns better with high IV and positive GEX.

Unusual: $440 Call net +$2.2M premium — deep OTM call buying, possibly a cheap volatility or tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $700 gamma flip accelerates dealer hedging (buy to cover shorts).

!Steep IV inversion implies imminent vol crush post-4/2 expiry.

!Earnings on 4/30 creates event risk for longer-dated positions.

!Structural put floor far below spot (~$450) leaves room for a significant drop if pin breaks.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell $690/$685P x $725/$730C 4/10 (10 DTE).	VIX elevated (48.6% IV) adds tail risk per rating threshold; GEX positive supports.
CSP / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $695/$690 put spread 4/10, targeting max pain drift.	Break below $690 targets next put OI wall at $640.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $720C 4/17 (17 DTE) against $810 call wall.	Capped upside if breakout occurs.
Cash-secured put	Moderate-Strong	Sell $700P 4/10, collect high premium at pin/strike.	Assignment at $700 if pin breaks down.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — high IV expensive, pinning negates trend.	Vol crush and theta decay.
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $710/$700 put spread 4/10, betting on drift to $695 MP.	Pin holds at $708.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell $710C 4/2 (54.9% IV), buy $720C 4/17 (44.4% IV) — reverse call calendar.	Spot moves sharply away from short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $600C Jan 2027 (41.5% IV), sell $720C 4/17 against it.	Capital intensive; earnings event risk.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Avoid outright — positive DEX suggests dealer long hedge buying on dips.	Pinning and dealer support.

Top Plays

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $710C 4/2, Buy $720C 4/17

Capitalizes on steep IV inversion (sell 54.9%, buy 44.4%) in a pinning regime. Best if spot stays near $708.

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: Unlimited (defined by strikes)

BE: Complex; ideal scenario is pin near $710 at 4/2 expiry.

Mgmt: Close short leg before 4/2 expiry if profitable; manage long leg as directional bet after.

Traders comfortable with positive gamma/theta plays who want to harvest high front-month vol.

Cash-Secured Put

Sell $700P 4/10

Collects high premium (IV 48.6%) at the key gamma flip and support level. Aligns with pinning and positive GEX.

Credit: $8.50-$10.50

Max loss: $70000.00

BE: $691.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max credit; roll down/out if spot breaks below $695.

Investors willing to own CAT at $700 or simply collect premium in a range.

PMCC (Diagonal)

Buy $600C Jan 2027, Sell $720C 4/17

The 45+ DTE long leg captures structural range ($600 put floor) with cheap vol (41.5%). The short leg harvests richer near-term vol against the $720 call wall. The extra time improves risk/reward by providing a deep-in-the-money, low-theta long anchor for multiple premium cycles.

Debit: $9500.00-$10500.00

Max loss: Cost of long call minus net credits

BE: Variable; lowers with each short call credit.

Mgmt: Roll short calls up/out at 50% profit; hold long call through earnings.

Long-term bullish investors wanting to reduce cost basis and generate income in a range.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds between $705-$711 for 2 consecutive hours → Enter reverse call calendar: Sell $710C 4/2, Buy $720C 4/17

IFSpot dips to $700 and rebounds → Sell $700P 4/10

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $695 (below next MP) → Exit all short premium positions (CSP, iron condor)

EXIT4/2 expiry passes → Close or roll short leg of reverse calendar; reassess pin.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-volatility pin at $708, with a multi-week drift toward lower max pain levels ($695, $690). The regime favors selling premium (high IV, positive GEX) via defined-risk spreads or calendars. Top plays: 1) Reverse call calendar for vol arb, 2) CSP at key support for income, 3) PMCC for longer-term range-bound ownership. Invalidation: sustained break below $695.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.