Term structure: Humped at 4/24 (45.9%), dips at 4/10 (38.6%) and 5/15 (39.3%)
Spot vs MP: Above by 3.1% (spot $113.41 vs MP $110)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$43.8M)
Gamma flip: ~$110.00 — Below $110, positive GEX turns negative, dealers would sell to hedge, accelerating moves down.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $110 (19,846 OI), $100 (18,273 OI). Major Call Wall: $120 (26,459 OI), $130 (21,645 OI), $115 (~35k combined OI).
#1put spread
Sell $110/$105 Put Spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Directly targets the massive $110 put OI wall (19,846) and max pain level. Strong positive GEX ($43.8M) supports price above $110. High IV (44.2% for 4/17) provides solid credit.
Mgmt: Close at 65-75% profit. Exit entire position if C closes below $110 (gamma flip). Roll only if credit >$1.00 for same or later expiry.
#2iron condor
Sell $110/$105P x $120/$125C 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Plays the entire pinning range between the two largest OI concentrations ($110P & $120C). Uses the IV hump at 4/24 (45.9%) for maximum premium. Defined risk with high probability of success in a pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side for a credit if possible, otherwise close entire position. Exit if spot breaches either short strike.
#3covered call
Own 100 shares @ ~$113.41, Sell $120 Call 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
For shareholders seeking income. Targets the major $120 call wall (26,459 OI), a strong resistance. Collects premium from elevated IV (44.8% for 5/01) while positioning for a capped upside exit near a likely pin point.
Mgmt: Close call at 50-70% profit. Roll up and out if share price approaches $119. Be aware of ex-dividend date (none imminent from data).
#4put spread
Sell $100/$95 Put Spread 2026-06-18 (79 DTE)
A more defensive, longer-dated play on the second-largest put wall at $100 (18,273 OI). Lower IV (37.1%) but still acceptable for a defined-risk spread. Provides a wide buffer (~13.5%) from current price.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. This is a longer-term hold; monitor for any breakdown below $110 which would threaten this level. No need to manage aggressively until 30 DTE.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-04-14 (in ~2 weeks). Close or roll all short premium positions before this announcement. Do NOT hold naked options through earnings.
!Gamma flip at $110 is critical. A close below this level flips the GEX regime from pinning to trending, threatening all put credit spreads.
!Unusual Put activity: 4/02 $113 Put saw high volume (519 vs 318 OI). Monitor for follow-through selling pressure.
!Long-dated max pain shifts to $75-$100 for 2026-11 onward. This indicates longer-term bearish hedging but does not impact near-term pinning.
!Net premium flow is positive ($28.0M), but P/C OI ratio is 1.10, showing more put OI than call OI overall—a mild caution for bulls.