Earnings Verdict
Earnings expected around 4/14. IV elevated at 45.9% for 4/24, suggesting crush play. Stock pinned near $110 max pain with strong gamma support.
base 5; +1 strong pinning; +0.5 clear earnings date inference; -0.5 limited historical data
Most important: IV term structure shows clear kink at 4/24 (45.9%) vs 38.6% at 4/10, confirming earnings between those dates.
📅Earnings inferred ~4/14 based on IV kink between 4/10 and 4/24 expirations
⚖️Strong gamma pinning at $110 with $43.8M GEX supports range-bound thesis
📊Limited historical move data - EM based purely on options pricing, not past behavior
Regime Classification
Vol Regime
Normal (IV 44%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$43.8M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem $28.0M, P/C 0.86)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 3.1% (spot $113.41 vs MP $110)
Gamma flip: ~$110.00 — Below $110, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-04-14 (14 days)inferred from IV kink between 4/10 and 4/24
Expected moves:
- 4/24 (24d): ±$10.20 (9.0%) [$103.21 - $123.61]
IV Setup
Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 (45.9% vs 38.6% at 4/10), elevated vs longer-dated ~37%
Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts, back to ~37% range
Skew: P/C OI ratio 1.10 shows slightly more put OI, but P/C volume 0.86 shows more call trading
Historical Context
Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Insufficient move data, but EPS surprises: +0.17, +0.28, +0.06, -0.23
Directional bias: Mixed EPS results, last quarter missed
Key Levels
1$110 gamma flip/max pain
2$115 call OI wall (18K)
3$120 call OI wall (26K)
4$100 put OI wall (18K)
5EM: $103-$124
Flow Highlights
Massive $75C premium flow ($10.2M net), likely far OTM speculation or structured trade
Not earnings-related, but shows institutional interest
$115C premium flow $2.1M net with high volume (3,809)
Active betting near current price for upside
Strategies
Short strangle (IV crush)
Sell $103P / sell $124C 4/24
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before earnings
Elevated IV at 45.9% provides premium to sell, gamma pinning at $110 supports range-bound behavior
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds, IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >15%
Put credit spread (bullish bias)
Sell $100P / Buy $95P 4/24
Trigger: Enter if stock holds above $110 gamma flip
Max pain at $110 provides support, heavy $100 put OI (18K) creates resistance to the downside
Outperforms: Stock stays above $100, earnings don't disappoint severely
Underperforms: Stock gaps below $95
Long straddle (directional breakout)
Buy $113 straddle 4/24
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before earnings if IV hasn't spiked >50%
Historical EPS surprises can be large (+0.28), potential for guidance-driven move beyond EM
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM (9.0%) by >30%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $113, IV crushes post-earnings
Iron condor (defined risk range)
Sell $105P/$100P x $121C/$126C 4/24
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before earnings
Tighter range than EM provides higher probability, uses key OI levels at $100P and $125C as buffers
Outperforms: Stock stays between $105 and $121
Underperforms: Stock breaches either short strike
Risk Assessment
!Gap risk: 9.0% EM is substantial; last quarter missed EPS by -0.23, guidance risk present
!IV crush of ~8-10 vol points will significantly impact long premium strategies
!Liquidity: Good with 1.1M OI, but watch bid-ask spreads on lower-volume strikes
!Gamma pinning at $110 could limit post-earnings drift if earnings are neutral
What to Watch
?IV trajectory into earnings - if it spikes above 50%, reconsider short premium
?Spot vs $110 gamma flip - break below could trigger accelerated selling
?Unusual $113P 4/02 activity (519 vol vs 318 OI) - may indicate near-term put hedging