BX Theta Gang Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

5.5 / 10

base 5; +1 high IV; +0.5 pinning regime; -1 moderate liquidity

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

IV 50.2% — Elevated volatility environment

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Humped at 5/08 (55.4%), elevated across curve

💰Rich IV (50%+) favors premium sellers

⚠️Term structure hump at 38 DTE suggests near-term uncertainty

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 3.6% (spot $114.99 vs MP $111)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$0.9M — mean-reverting)

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Below $100, dealers amplify moves downward

OI concentrations: Major put walls at $100 (12.6K OI), $85 (8.3K OI), $95 (5.5K OI)

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX and OI concentrations support pinning near current levels

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $105/$100 put spread 5/01 (31 DTE)

High IV (51.8%) at this expiry. Short strike aligns with $105 OI support and is 8.7% below spot. Well above gamma flip at $100. Expected move is ±$13.03, giving cushion.

Credit: $1.15-$1.45

Max loss: $3.55

BE: $103.55

Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.95 credit). Exit if BX closes below $103. Roll down/out if $105 tested. Max loss at $100.

cash-secured put

Sell $110 put 4/17 (17 DTE)

High IV (44.2%) and strong OI support at $110 (3.7K OI). Strike is 4.3% below spot, above max pain ($111) and well above gamma flip. Premium represents 2.8% return on capital in 17 days.

Credit: $2.80-$3.20

Max loss: $107.20

BE: $107.20

Mgmt: Close at 70% profit (~$2.24 credit). Roll down/out if tested. Accept assignment below $107.20 if willing to own shares.

iron condor

Sell $105/$100P x $130/$135C 5/01 (31 DTE)

Captures high IV hump at 31 DTE. Wide range ($105-$130) within expected move (±$13.03). Call side uses $130 OI resistance; put side uses $105 OI support. Positive GEX supports range-bound price action.

Credit: $1.60-$2.00

Max loss: $3.40

BE: 103.40/131.40

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit (~$1.00 credit). Manage legs independently if one side tested. Exit entire position if BX breaches $103 or $132.

covered call

Own shares, sell $125 call 4/24 (24 DTE)

For existing shareholders. $125 strike is 8.7% above spot, above expected move upper bound ($125.86). High IV (48.6%) provides attractive premium. Call wall at $125 provides resistance.

Credit: $1.90-$2.30

Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Roll up/out if $125 tested. Allow assignment above $125 for capital gain + premium.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings estimated 4/23/26 — close all short premium positions before announcement (IV crush risk)

!Gamma flip ~$100 — breach could lead to accelerated selling

!Moderate liquidity — use limit orders; expect wider bid-ask spreads on multi-leg strategies

!Net premium flow negative (-$7.2M) suggests institutional put buying for protection

!Term structure hump at 5/08 (55.4% IV) indicates uncertainty around that timeframe

!Unusual call activity at $135 Jul-26 — monitor for breakout above $130

Read the Theta Gang analysis for BX for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.