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BX

Blackstone Inc.Close $116.83EOD only

Max Pain

$121.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.27

2.8% from close

Price Gap

+4.17

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.46

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

BX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a gravitational pull toward lower max pain levels ($109-$111). Confidence: 4.5/10. Spot is elevated 3.6% above the nearest max pain, creating a drag, but positive GEX suggests pinning pressure that may limit immediate downside. The regime is contradictory: GEX is pinning (bullish for range), but flow is mixed and net premium is negative (bearish).

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradict; -0.5 spot 3.6% from MP. No overriding catalysts identified.

Supports: Positive GEX (+$946K) indicates dealer pinning support. Strong put floor at $85-$105 provides structural support.
Conflicts: Net premium flow is negative (-$7.2M) and P/C ratios >1 indicate put bias, contradicting the pinning signal. Spot is well above near-term max pain.

⚖️Contradictory regime: GEX pins, but flow is put-heavy.

⬇️Spot $114.99 is 3.6% above Friday's $111 max pain.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 50.2% is High — premium selling has theoretical edge, but elevated vol demands defined risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$946K indicates pinning pressure near spot; dealers are net long gamma, which should suppress volatility and encourage mean reversion.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Flow is Mixed — net premium is negative (-$7.2M) with P/C ratios >1, showing institutional put interest conflicting with the pinning gamma.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot is Above nearest max pain ($111) — creates a gravitational pull lower toward the pin over the near term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a rising trend from $111 to $120+ over several months, and the GEX/flow conflict suggests a resolution period, not a single expiry event. The put-heavy structural OI supports a multi-week positioning story.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$112.15$117.82

GEX pinning may slow the move, but spot above MP and negative flow favor a drift down.

Next 1 week

$108.57$121.41

Pinning pressure vs. put flow creates a battleground; break below $108.57 targets the $105 put OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$106.46$123.51

Structural put floor at $85-$105 and rising max pain ladder provide a downside magnet and long-term support.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $111 (2026-03-27); $114 (2026-04-02); $109 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $112.15/$117.82; 1w $108.57/$121.41

Support: $100.00 · $85.00 · $95.00

Resistance:

Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,553

Structural: Massive put OI walls at $100 (12.6K OI), $95, $85, and $105 create a formidable structural floor. Lack of identified call resistance suggests upside is technically open, but gravity is to the downside.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+946K

DEX: +11.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$100 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,553)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$100 is far below spot, indicating dealer hedging is stable for moves above it. A move below $100 would trigger significant negative delta hedging, accelerating selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 50.2% is extremely high (no VIX given for direct comp). Implies expensive options — edge to premium sellers who can manage tail risk.

Term structure: Humped with a kink: IV rises from 47.6% (2d) to a peak of 55.4% by 5/08, then declines. This prices in elevated volatility around the 4/23 earnings date and beyond.

Skew: Steep vol differential between 5/08 (55.4%) and 6/18 (45.3%) — ~10 vol points. Supports a reverse calendar (sell high IV May, buy lower IV June).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$7.2M bearish; P/C vol 1.14, P/C OI 1.60 — clear institutional put bias.

Directional prints: 1) $110 Call saw +$1.36M net premium — could be bullish call buying or bearish call selling for covered writes. Given net negative flow, selling is more consistent. 2) $120/$140/$145 Puts all show large negative net premium (millions), indicating put buying or put spread selling. Buying is more consistent with overall put flow.

Unusual: $135 Call 7/17 vol 282 vs OI 146 (1.9x) at 41.6% IV — could be a long-dated, OTM bullish speculation against the put flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$100: A break below triggers accelerated dealer selling.

!Earnings on 4/23: High implied volatility (51.8% for 5/01) will crush post-event.

!Contradictory signals: Pinning GEX vs. bearish flow creates whipsaw risk.

!Extreme put OI at $100/$85: These act as magnets but also potential support if tested.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $108/$105 Put spread & $120/$125 Call spread, 5/15 expiry (45 DTE).	GEX is positive, but VIX equivalent is >28 (IV 50.2%), and flow is bearish, increasing breakout risk.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $105 Put or $105/$100 Put spread, 5/15 expiry. Targets max pain and major OI support.	Break below $100 gamma flip.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell 5/15 $120 Call (above resistance).	Capped upside in a rally; stock decline.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $115/$110 Put spread, 4/10 expiry. Bets on drift to max pain.	Pinning GEX slows descent; high IV increases debit cost.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell 5/08 $115 Call (55.4% IV), Buy 6/18 $115 Call (45.3% IV).	Requires pinning; directional move hurts.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 1/15/27 $100 Call, sell 5/15/26 $120 Call. Leverages long-dated bullish skew vs. near-term call premium.	Capital intensive; near-term bearish flow.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	Direct short or via puts. Aligns with bearish flow.	Strong pinning GEX and put OI floors create fierce support on declines.
Long calls	Weak	Limited edge. If bullish, consider 6/18 $130 Calls, betting on breakout above structural put walls.	Contradicts dominant flow; high IV expensive.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $105/$100 Bear Put Spread, 5/15 expiry (45 DTE).

Collects premium in a high-IV environment by selling into the strongest put OI support level ($105) with defined risk down to the gamma flip ($100). Aligns with the multi-week thesis of a downward drift toward max pain and major support.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $103.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit (≈$1.30). Exit if spot closes below $102 (breaching near-term support). Roll if spot approaches $105.

Traders seeking defined-risk, high-IV credit in a conflicted but structurally supported market.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell 5/08 $115 Call, Buy 6/18 $115 Call.

Capitalizes on the 10 vol-point hump in the term structure around earnings. Benefits from IV crush in the short leg (5/08) after earnings, while the long leg (6/18) provides directional hedge. Best if you expect spot to hover near $115.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush.

Mgmt: Close after 4/23 earnings for IV crush profit. Exit if spot makes a sustained move outside $110-$120.

Volatility traders looking to harvest the earnings IV premium without a strong directional bet.

Cash-Secured Put at Key Support

Sell 6/18 $100 Put (79 DTE).

A longer-dated expression of the structural support thesis. The $100 strike is the largest OI wall and the gamma flip, offering a high-premium entry for stock acquisition or pure income. The extra time improves risk/reward by providing a wider buffer for the spot to fluctuate within the supportive put floor and withstand earnings volatility.

Credit: $8.00-$10.00

Max loss: $92.00

BE: $92.00

Mgmt: Roll down/out if spot threatens $95. Consider taking profit at 50% if premium decays rapidly pre-earnings.

Investors willing to own BX at $100 or premium sellers comfortable with longer assignment risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to $117.50 (upper 2d EM bound) and stalls → Sell 4/10 $120/$125 Call credit spread.

IFSpot declines to $110 (near 4/02 max pain) → Sell 5/15 $105/$100 Put spread.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $100 (gamma flip) → Exit all short put positions immediately.

EXITPost-earnings (4/24), IV on 5/08 expiry drops below 40% → Take profit on any short premium positions in that expiry.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: A conflicted, multi-week grind lower toward max pain and major put support ($105-$100), hampered by pinning GEX. Favor selling OTM puts into structural support or harvesting the rich near-term IV via calendars. Invalidation: a sustained break below $100. Top plays: 1) $105/$100 put spread (45 DTE) for defined-risk credit; 2) Reverse $115 call calendar to play the earnings IV hump; 3) $100 CSP (79 DTE) for longer-term support conviction.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.