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BLK

BlackRock, Inc.Close $1051.57EOD only

Max Pain

$1070.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$11.25

1.1% from close

Price Gap

+18.43

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.36

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BLK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

BLK Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward bias toward the $970-$980 max pain cluster, but facing significant structural resistance above $1000. Confidence: 6/10. The regime is defined by a weak pin at $960, negative GEX suggesting trending potential, and mixed but slightly bearish flow.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 spot at MP; +0 GEX/flow conflict; +0 moderate OI data quality.

Supports: Spot at max pain ($960), DEX +796K shares (dealer long), net premium +$731K.
Conflicts: GEX -$87K (trending), P/C volume ratio 1.66 (bearish), structural call OI walls.

⚠️Low-liquidity chain: GEX/DEX values are directional guides, not precise.

📈Max pain ladder rises to $970-$980 over next 2 weeks.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 40.5% — elevated, favoring premium selling for defined-risk strategies.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$87K — negative gamma suggests dealers hedge in the direction of price movement, enabling trends.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium bullish but P/C volume bearish (1.66), indicating institutional hedging vs. speculative call buying.

Spot vs Max Pain

At max pain ($960) — weak pinning force due to moderate OI, but provides a short-term anchor.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $960 to $970-$980 over the next 3-4 expirations, and GEX sign is stable. This suggests a multi-week drift higher is favored, not just a single expiry pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$942.21$981.21

Max pain at $960 provides a floor; upside capped by 2d EM high at $981.21.

Next 1 week

$919.46$1003.96

Max pain rises to $970; break above $1000 needed to challenge structural call walls.

Next 2 weeks

$896.11$1027.31

Flow and max pain ladder support; failure below 2-week EM low ($896.11) invalidates.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $960 (2026-03-27); $960 (2026-04-02); $970 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $942.21/$981.21; 1w $919.46/$1003.96

Support: $390.00 · $470.00 · $940.00

Resistance: $1150.00 · $1190.00 · $1170.00

Gamma flip: ~$390.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 734

Structural: **Call OI walls at $1150-$1300** are extreme and cap multi-month upside. **Put floor at $390-$660** is far OTM and irrelevant for near-term trading, indicating long-term protective positioning.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-87K

DEX: +796K shares

Gamma flip: ~$390 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 734)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$390 is far OTM and irrelevant. With negative GEX, dealer hedging amplifies spot moves: a +2% move accelerates buying; a -2% move accelerates selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 40.5% — elevated, providing attractive premium for sellers.

Term structure: Humped — peaks at 42.4% for 4/17 expiry, then declines. **Kink at 4/17 (earnings estimate)** priced ~8 vol points above 4/10.

Skew: **4/17 vs 4/10 calendar spread:** Sell the 4/17 high IV (42.4%), buy the 4/10 lower IV (34.9%) for a ~7.5 vol-pt differential.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$731K bullish; P/C vol 1.66 (bearish), P/C OI 1.11 (neutral).

Directional prints: **$440C large premium ($1.43M)** — likely a far OTM bullish bet or spread leg. **$1140P large premium (-$1.06M)** — could be a sold put (bullish) or bought put (bearish hedge); sold put is more consistent with net premium bullishness.

Unusual: **$660P 4/10 vol 500 vs OI 250 at IV 127.6%** — extreme skew, likely a panic hedge or speculative buy; mispriced for selling.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Earnings kink (4/17):** IV crush post-4/14 earnings will punish long vol positions.

!**Negative GEX:** Can accelerate a break below the $940 support (put OI).

!**Low liquidity:** Wider bid/ask spreads increase slippage on complex strategies.

!**Structural call walls ($1150+):** Limit sustained rallies, encouraging profit-taking.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate	Buy shares at ~$960	Break below $940 support and negative GEX acceleration.
Short stock	Weak	Sell shares at ~$960	At max pain with upward ladder; negative GEX cuts both ways.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock, sell $1000C 5/15 (45 DTE) for ~$15-20 premium	Capped upside; stock decline.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $940/$920 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE)	Break below $940 support.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $980C 5/15 (45 DTE)	High IV (38.4%) and time decay; needs strong rally.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	Buy $940/$920 put spread 5/15 (45 DTE)	Against max pain ladder and net premium flow.
Iron condor	Moderate	$940/$920P x $1000/$1020C 5/15 (45 DTE)	GEX negative (trending) and VIX context unknown; violates strong rating threshold.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $970C 4/17 (42.4% IV), buy $970C 4/10 (34.9% IV)	Earnings date uncertainty; needs pin near $970.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $800C 1/15/27, sell $1000C 5/15/26	Capital intensive; high long-dated IV (33.3%).

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread

Sell $940/$920 put spread, 5/15 expiry (45 DTE)

Collects elevated premium in a neutral-to-bullish regime, with defined risk below key support. Aligns with max pain drift higher and uses negative GEX to our advantage (downside moves are swift, but we're defining risk).

Credit: $4.50-$6.00

Max loss: $15.50

BE: $935.50

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $940. Roll down/out if challenged.

Traders with a neutral/bullish bias seeking defined-risk income, comfortable with the $940 support level.

Covered Call

Buy stock ~$960, sell $1000 call, 5/15 expiry (45 DTE)

Generates income on existing or new stock position while targeting the upper bound of the multi-week range ($1000-$1040). The 45 DTE provides a good balance of premium decay and time for the upward max pain drift to play out.

Credit: $15.00-$20.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: $945.00

Mgmt: Consider closing call at 50% profit if stock rallies quickly. Roll up and out if spot approaches $1000 early.

Investors who already own or are willing to own BLK, looking to enhance returns in a range-bound rally.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Earnings)

Sell $970 call 4/17, buy $970 call 4/10

Capitalizes on the pronounced IV kink around the estimated 4/17 earnings date. Sells rich near-term vol (42.4%) against cheaper short-term vol (34.9%), betting on a pin near $970 and an IV crush post-earnings. The 45 DTE alternative (bull put spread) has a different risk profile (directional); this is a volatility/theta play.

Credit: $2.50-$4.00

Max loss: Unlimited above short strike

BE: Complex; best near $970 at 4/10 expiry

Mgmt: Close before 4/10 expiry if profitable. Manage delta if spot moves far from $970. Primary bet is IV collapse.

Advanced traders comfortable with calendar spreads, targeting volatility compression and a pin near max pain.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot holds above $965 for a 4-hour close → Enter bull put spread: Sell $940/$920 put spread 5/15.

IFSpot dips to $950 and 4/17 IV rises above 45% → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $970C 4/17, buy $970C 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $940 (key support) → Exit all bullish premium-selling positions (put spreads, covered calls).

EXIT4/17 IV drops below 35% (post-earnings crush) → Close reverse calendar spread for profit.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week drift higher toward $970-$1000, anchored by rising max pain but constrained by structural call walls. Favor selling elevated premium in defined-risk bullish structures. Invalidation is a close below $940. Top plays: 1) Bull put spread (best for defined-risk income), 2) Covered call (best for stock owners), 3) Reverse calendar (best for vol traders targeting earnings IV crush).

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.