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BKNG

Booking Holdings Inc. Common StClose $160.56EOD only

Max Pain

$176.00

Next expiry May 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.80

1.7% from close

Price Gap

+15.44

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.85

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

6.0/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BKNG options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 12, 2026 close

BKNG Directional Report

Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish directional bias based on high vol, negative flow, and trending regime. Spot below MP and dealer gamma flip risk near $154 suggest further downside towards $145-150 area over 1-2 weeks. VIX elevated but not extreme; confidence 7/10 balanced by gamma flip support.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 5; +2 from GEX/flow alignment; -1 due to spot 11.4% below MP (mean-reversion risk); +1 from elevated VIX supporting IV.

Supports: High vol, bearish flow, trending gamma, negative GEX, spotted below MP.
Conflicts: Spot below MP by 11.4% could attract buyers; gamma flip at $154 may stabilize; P/C skew may already priced in.

💥Gamma flip risk at $154; break below accelerates selling.

📉Bearish flow and net short GEX confirm dealer selling pressure.

⚠️11.4% below MP: large gap, but momentum is negative.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

High vol: IV elevated relative to 20d HV; VIX ~17.9 provides macro context.

Gamma Regime

Trending

Trending gamma: negative GEX -$8M, strong put OI at $154 creates gamma flip risk if spot breaks below.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Bearish flow: net premium negative, put volume elevated, dealer hedging adds selling pressure.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot below MP ($154.4 vs $175 max pain); 11.4% gap suggests mean-reversion potential but bearish momentum.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol with trending gamma and bearish flow indicates persistent selling pressure; short-term support at $154, but structural negativity suggests sustained downside over weeks.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$150.18$159.88

Test lower support as gamma flip at $154.

Next 1 week

$148.25$161.80

Further downside likely; resistance at $160.

Next 2 weeks

$145.03$165.03

Extended decline towards $145 support if bearish flow continues.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $175 (2026-05-15); $170 (2026-05-22); $170 (2026-05-29)

EM guardrails: 2d $150.18/$159.88; 1w $148.25/$161.80

Support: $154.40 · $154.00 · $145.03

Resistance: $160.00 · $165.03 · $170.00

Gamma flip: ~$154.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,348 (0.7% below spot)

Structural: Key support: $154.4 (gamma flip), $154.0 (put OI), $145.03 (2w low). Resistance: $160 (short-term), $165 (1w high), $170 (max pain). Gamma flip at ~$154 (put concentration 0.7% below spot).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-8.0M

DEX: +20.5M shares

Gamma flip: ~$154 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,348 (0.7% below spot))

NTM gamma: Net GEX -$8M (bearish), DEX +20.5M shares; gamma flip at $154 from put OI concentration. Dealers short gamma below $154, exacerbating moves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Rich vs VIX: ticker IV ~70% (high vol) vs VIX 17.87; implies high event risk or panic.

Term structure: Front-end elevated (May 15 expiry ~2.5 days away), backwardation from event risk; longer-dated stable.

Skew: Put skew steep; buy put spreads for near-term downside play as gamma flip approaches.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$71.4M, put/call vol ratio 1.81 indicates bearish flow despite lower put OI.

Directional prints: 124.8 call 235 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 4.0, IV 124.8%. Could be aggressive call buying or short call opening; given bearish flow, likely sold.

Unusual: 124.8 call 235 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 4.0 well above 1.5 threshold. High IV suggests speculative positioning; ambiguous directional read. 40.6 put 145 OTM 2027-01-15 — Vol/OI 1.6, long-dated put. Could be protective put buying or bearish bet; premium $13 suggests cost.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot holds $154 support causing short squeeze

!Macro reversal lowers vol

!Earnings or news catalysts reverse sentiment

!Gamma flip fails to trigger, range-bound grind

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $150.00/$145.00 put spread Why now: High put flow and bearish gamma profile support further downside; spread caps tail risk.	Spot holds $154 support causing squeeze; spread profits limited to spread width.
Long put	Moderate	Buy 2026-05-29 $150.00 put Why now: Negative flow and gamma flip risk near $154 suggest near-term downside; long put captures convexity.	Spot reversal could cause rapid decay; theta burn if move delayed.
Call credit spread	Weak	Sell 2026-05-29 $165.00/$175.00 call spread Why now: Bearish flow and high IV favor premium selling; cap risk with wing.	Sharp rally above short strike causes loss; spread width limits damage. Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (173%).

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy 2026-05-29 $150.00/$145.00 put spread

Buy $150/$145 put spread for defined risk bearish play.

Why this play: Caps risk while profiting from downside; high put flow supports.

Debit: $1.19-$1.46

Max loss: $1.46

BE: $148.54

Mgmt: Exit if spot rises above $160.

Traders seeking limited risk downside exposure.

Long Put

Buy 2026-05-29 $150.00 put

Buy $150 put for direct downside with unlimited gain potential.

Why this play: Captures convexity if downside accelerates; strong bearish flow.

Debit: $2.52-$3.08

Max loss: $3.08

BE: $146.92

Mgmt: Set stop at $160; consider rolling if gamma flips.

Aggressive traders expecting sharp move lower.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf BKNG spot breaks below $154 gamma flip with momentum → Buy 2026-05-29 $150/$145 put spread (strat_1)

IFIf BKNG spot accelerates below $150 after breaking $154 → Buy 2026-05-29 $150 put (strat_2)

Exit Triggers

EXITIf BKNG spot closes above $160 → Exit all bearish positions

Tactical Summary

Bearish bias, spot below gamma flip $154. Target $145-150. Recommended: bear put spread for risk control or long put for convexity. Invalidation $160. Risk: squeeze if $154 holds.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.