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BE

Bloom Energy CorporationClose $282.31EOD only

Max Pain

$260.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$23.75

8.4% from close

Price Gap

-22.31

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.24

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects BE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

BE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a complex pinning dynamic and extreme volatility. Confidence: 4.5/10. Spot is caught between near-term max pain levels ($135-$142) and a strong, long-term downward drift in the max pain ladder. The regime is contradictory: positive GEX suggests pinning, but net negative premium flow and a high P/C volume ratio indicate underlying bearish pressure.

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

Base 4.5. GEX positive (+1) supports pinning, but flow is mixed/negative (-1) and spot is below near-term MP (-0.5). Extreme IV (113%) and deep structural OI walls add to uncertainty.

Supports: GEX +$3.7M (pinning force), spot near 4/02 MP ($135), DEX +20.8M shares (dealer long delta).
Conflicts: Net premium -$16.9M (bearish), P/C vol 1.10 (put volume > call volume), MP ladder trends down to $65 long-term.

⚠️IV > 110% — extreme volatility priced in

📉MP ladder falls from $142 to $65 — long-term gravity is down

📌Spot pinned between $135 and $142 near-term max pain

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 113% — extreme, favoring premium selling but with massive tail risk.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.7M — pinning force present, but gamma flip is far below at ~$75, limiting near-term hedging impact.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — net premium bearish (-$16.9M), P/C vol 1.10, but large bullish call prints exist (e.g., $157.50C).

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Below near-term MP ($142 for 3/27), but at 4/02 MP ($135). Expect chop between these levels.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a clear downward trend across expirations (from $142 to $65), and the high-volatility, pinning regime is consistent across the next several weeks. This isn't a single-expiry event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$128.49$142.50

Pinned between $142.50 (2d EM high) and $135 (4/02 MP). Break below $128.49 signals acceleration.

Next 1 week

$118.67$152.32

4/10 MP at $140, but 4/17 MP at $130. Flow and MP trend favor lower.

Next 2 weeks

$112.74$158.24

MP at $130 (4/17), $144 (4/24) creates conflict, but long-term trend is down. Watch $118.67 (1w EM low).

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $142 (2026-03-27); $135 (2026-04-02); $140 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $128.49/$142.50; 1w $118.67/$152.32

Support: $75.00 · $80.00 · $15.00

Resistance: $165.00 · $260.00 · $200.00

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,397

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $165, $200, $260 cap rallies. Deep put floors at $75 and $80 are major structural supports, but $15 put OI suggests catastrophic tail risk is hedged.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.7M

DEX: +20.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,397)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$75 is far OTM, meaning dealer hedging is minimal near spot. Positive GEX is from longer-dated options, creating a 'soft' pin rather than a hard, near-dated one.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 113% is astronomically high — stock is pricing in binary or extreme event risk. Implies selling premium has high nominal edge but catastrophic risk.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping near-term (87.9% 2d → 112.9% 38d), then flat/declining. Kink at May 1st (109.8%) likely earnings premium.

Skew: Extreme IV makes buying cheap vol impossible. Calendar spreads selling the higher-IV May/June expiries against longer-dated, slightly lower IV expiries (e.g., Jan 2027) could capture decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$16.9M bearish; P/C vol 1.10, P/C OI 0.92.

Directional prints: $157.50C 4/17 vol 10,543 vs OI 107 — massive new long call or short put position. $140P 5/15 vol 8,652 vs OI 3,213 — large put opening. Could be bullish call buying + bearish put buying (strangle) or complex spread.

Unusual: $85P Jan 2027 vol 652 — very long-dated protective put buying, signaling long-term hedging concern.

Risks & Catalysts

!Extreme IV (>110%) — any short premium position faces enormous mark-to-market risk on moves.

!Gamma flip at $75 is irrelevant near-term — no gamma support near spot.

!Earnings ~4/30 — IV will remain elevated and may crush post-event.

!Structural put floor at $75 — a break below could trigger a vacuum down to $15.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Weak	N/A	Downward MP trend, negative net premium, extreme volatility.
Short stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Positive GEX and pinning near $135 create headwinds; defined-risk puts better.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $145C 4/17 (~30 DTE) for ~$3.50 est.	Stock drifts lower; call premium insufficient to offset capital loss.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $120/$115 put spread 4/17 (below 1w EM low). Credit ~$1.50 est.	Break below $118.67 EM low.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	Extremely expensive IV; needs massive move to profit.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $130P / sell $120P 4/17. Debit ~$4.00 est. Targets MP at $130.	Pinning at $135; IV crush on any stability.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	$125P/$120P x $145C/$150C 4/17. Credit ~$1.00 est.	GEX positive but VIX proxy (IV) > 28, and range is wide due to high EM.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell May $140C (IV 109.8%) / Buy Jan 2027 $145C (IV 101.0%). ~8.8 vol-pt sale.	Stock rallies above $140 near-term, short leg tested.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan 2027 $70C (~$68 est), sell 4/17 $145C against it.	Capital intensive; stock stagnates or falls.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Multi-Week)

Buy $130P / Sell $120P, Exp 4/17 (17 DTE)

Targets the multi-week downward drift in max pain (toward $130) and aligns with negative net premium flow. Uses a spread to mitigate extreme IV cost.

Debit: $3.80-$4.20

Max loss: $4.20

BE: $125.80

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($130 tag). Exit if spot closes above $142.50 (2d EM high).

Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk, avoiding outright short premium in high vol.

Short Put Spread (Defined Risk)

Sell $120P / Buy $115P, Exp 4/17 (17 DTE)

Collects premium in a high-IV environment with defined risk. Strike is below the 1-week EM low ($118.67), providing a buffer. Benefits if the pin holds or drifts slowly lower.

Credit: $1.40-$1.60

Max loss: $3.60

BE: $118.60

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Roll down/out if spot breaches $120. Exit on close below $118.

Premium sellers comfortable with risk to $118.67, seeking to capitalize on high IV without undefined risk.

Reverse Calendar Call (Volatility Sale)

Sell May 1st $140C / Buy Jan 2027 $145C

A longer-dated play selling the elevated IV around earnings (May 1st, 109.8%) against longer-dated, slightly lower IV (Jan 2027, 101%). Profits from accelerated decay on the short leg and IV contraction post-earnings, with a long-dated hedge. The extra time on the long leg provides flexibility if the stock rallies beyond May.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex — best at spot <$140 at May expiry.

Mgmt: Close short leg after earnings IV crush. Manage long leg as needed if bullish thesis strengthens.

Advanced traders looking to express a view that IV will collapse post-earnings, with a bullish-to-neutral longer-term bias.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $142 (3/27 MP) and rejects → Enter bear put spread: Buy $140P / Sell $130P 4/10.

IFSpot breaks and closes below $128.49 (2d EM low) → Consider long puts: Buy $125P 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $145 (above near-term call OI cluster) → Exit all bearish positions (puts, put spreads).

EXITIV on front-month (2d) drops below 70% → Take profits on all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Multi-week bearish drift within extreme volatility, with near-term pinning between $135-$142. Favor defined-risk bearish spreads (put spreads) or volatility sales (calendars) over directional stock positions. Invalidation: a sustained break above $145. Top Plays: 1) Bear put spread for directional bearish; 2) Short put spread for premium collection; 3) Reverse calendar to sell earnings IV.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.