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AXP

American Express CompanyClose $309.82EOD only
Max Pain
$312.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.95
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+2.68
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
2
Low premium
P/C OI
0.54
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AXP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AXP Theta Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6.5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell put spreads near OI support and gamma flip
Invalidation: Close below $280 gamma flip
Confidence:
5 / 10
base 4; +1 pinning regime; +1 normal IV; -1 liquidity; -1 earnings in 3 weeks

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 40% — normal for a financial stock
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Humped at 4/24 and 5/08 expirations (~43%), normal elsewhere

💰IV ~40% provides decent premium for defined-risk spreads

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At max pain $300 (spot $302.48)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$6.0M)

Gamma flip: ~$280.00 — Below $280, dealers amplify moves; strong put wall at $280 (4,634 OI)

OI concentrations: Put wall $280 (4.6K OI), Call wall $480 (48K OI — far OTM), $310 Call (2.1K OI)

Verdict: Favorable — strong pinning near current price supports credit positions

Premium Opportunities

#1
put spread
Sell $295/$290 put spread 4/17 (17 DTE)
Puts below max pain $300; strong pinning regime; 17 DTE captures theta decay before earnings. Short strike is 2.5% below spot.
Credit: $0.85-$1.10
Max loss: $4.00
BE: $294.15
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$0.55 credit remaining). Exit if price closes below $285 (below gamma flip). Roll not recommended due to earnings proximity.
#2
iron condor
Sell $290/$285P x $315/$320C 4/24 (24 DTE)
Wide range defined by OI ($280 put wall, $310/$320 call walls). IV is elevated at 40.6% for this expiration. Position stays outside the 8.1% expected move.
Credit: $1.20-$1.60
Max loss: $3.40
BE: 288.40/316.60
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: close tested side for a debit if price breaches short strike. Close entire position before 4/23 earnings.
#3
cash-secured put
Sell $280 put 5/15 (45 DTE)
Targets major OI support and gamma flip level. 45 DTE provides time buffer and collects high annualized premium (~40% if filled at mid). Willing to own at $280 (7.4% below spot).
Credit: $4.50-$5.50
Max loss: $275.50
BE: $275.50
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Roll down/out if price approaches $285, but close before earnings. Accept assignment below $280 only if thesis unchanged.
#4
call credit spread
Sell $310/$315 call spread 4/10 (10 DTE)
Quick theta decay play. Short strike aligns with OI resistance ($310 Call: 2,139 OI) and is above max pain. 10 DTE captures accelerated decay with minimal earnings risk.
Credit: $0.45-$0.65
Max loss: $4.40
BE: $310.45
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit. Exit if price closes above $308. Do not roll.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 4/23 (~3 weeks) — close all multi-leg positions before announcement. CSPs can be held through with understanding of assignment risk.
!Gamma flip at ~$280 — a break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure. Exit credit spreads below $285.
!Moderate liquidity — expect wider bid-ask spreads, especially on multi-leg orders. Use limit orders.
!Max pain trend is falling long-term ($300 → $280) — indicates structural put support building lower.
!Unusual put activity in Jan 2027 $150 strike — deep OTM institutional hedge, not an immediate threat but shows long-term caution.
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.