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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $414.14EOD only
Max Pain
$420.00
Next expiry May 26, 2026
Expected Move
±$11.88
2.9% from close
Price Gap
+5.86
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.15
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AVGO Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Regime is High Vol + Pinning with dealers long gamma (GEX +$73.5M) and a bullish flow skew into short-dated strikes. Best strategy is to trade premium-selling around the tight EM band (2d EM $348.72–$361.10) or use defined-risk directional structures that respect dealer pin magnets. Key risk: a gap outside the narrow EM (IV-driven gap or news) will blow up short premium positions given compressed near-term expected moves.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.9% above max pain
Most important: Watch IV and order flow into the $350–$365 pin cluster (GEX concentrations at $352.50, $355, $360) — dealer pinning can keep price inside EM but will amplify gaps.
📌GEX +$73.5M with pin magnets at $352.50/$355/$360 — raises probability price stays in 350–360 short-term
⚠️Max pain pinned at $320 repeatedly, but it's ~10.9% below spot; a sustained move toward MP would require large flow or negative fundamental shock

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,079 (29.6% below spot); below ~$250 dealers amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-03 (55 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): : ±$6.19 (1.7%) [$348.72 - $361.10]
  • 2026-04-13 (4d): ±$8.25 (2.3%) [$346.66 - $363.16]
  • 2026-04-15 (6d): ±$6.95 (2.0%) [$347.96 - $361.86]

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IV sits ~43.9% (2026-04-10) and stays elevated in the 40s across 1–2 week expirations (42.8% on 4/13, 40.0% on 4/15) with longer-dated ATM clustering around mid-to-high 40s. Slight bump at 11d (47.3%).

Crush estimate: Estimated post-event/expiry repricing of 4–8 vol pts for the nearest expirations; expect ATM to settle back toward low 40s after pinning/expiration, longer-dated IVs ~44–48%

Skew: Put OI is concentrated deep (multiple large put strikes) but premium flow and top-buying is skewed to calls ($330, $360, $340 nets), making calls more active in flow while puts still dominate structural OI lower down.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters, small positive surprises)

Avg move vs expected: Historical surprises are small (+$0.01–$0.04 EPS); price tended to show modest reactions rather than huge gaps (EPS surprise magnitude small).

Directional bias: Mild upside bias in fundamentals (consistently small beats) but not extreme directional gaps historically.

Key Levels

1$320.00 (max pain — recurring across expirations)
2$348.72 (EM low, 2026-04-10)
3$361.10 (EM high, 2026-04-10)
4$390.00 (structural call OI wall, high-side resistance)

Flow Highlights

Large premium accumulation at $330 call (Net call premium $8,713,508) and $360 call (Net call premium $7,244,382).

Buy-side directional/hedge activity concentrated in upside strikes; this flow supports a bullish skew and helps explain GEX pinning around $350–$360.

Unusual near-term volume in 2026-04-10 $365C (Vol 7,199, OI 1,765) and several heavy $347.50/$350 puts.

Market participants are buying both protection and leveraged upside into the near expirations — increases short-term two-way risk and supports dealer pinning behavior around $345–$365.

Strategies

Short iron condor (near-dated, pin play)
Sell 2026-04-10 350/345 put spread and sell 2026-04-10 360/365 call spread (defined-risk iron condor around 1d EM band)
Credit: $0.80-$1.30
Max loss: $4.70
Max gain: $1.30
BE: Below 348.70 / Above 361.30
Trigger: Enter within 1 trading day if IV stays near current 43–44% and price is between 350–360
High GEX + pin magnets at 350/355/360 create dealer friction that increases probability of P/L staying within narrow EM; defined risk limits tail exposure.
Outperforms: Price stays inside the tight 1d EM ($348.72–$361.10) and dealer pinning keeps moves muted
Underperforms: A gap outside the EM (news or large directional flow) occurs at open and breaches short wing
Broken-wing call spread (bullish skew capture)
Buy 2026-04-24 350/365 call debit spread (buy 350C, sell 365C) — use 350 and 365 strikes available
Debit: $7.50-$10.00
Max loss: $10.00
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $357.50
Trigger: If you expect sustained upside into next week and want limited risk; enter when April 24 IV compresses <45%
Call-biased premium flow and heavy upside buying at 360/365 make a limited-risk bullish spread efficient to capture asymmetric upside while benefitting from elevated call demand.
Outperforms: A directional upside move breaches the 360–365 pin concentration and momentum continues
Underperforms: Price pins between 345–360 and IV crushes without sustained upside
Debit straddle (vol play across 15d)
Buy 2026-04-24 355 straddle (buy 355C + 355P) — use nearest available ATM strike (355)
Debit: $16.00-$22.00
Max loss: $22.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ≈ 355 ± cost
Trigger: Enter 3–7 days before anticipated catalyst or if IV dips below mid-40s making vega cheaper
If you want pure upside from an outsized move or event risk beyond typical expirations; expensive but captures convexity if large move occurs.
Outperforms: Realized move > cost (move exceeds EM materially) or IV re-rates higher
Underperforms: Price stays pinned near 350–360 and IV compresses; heavy dealer pinning increases probability of small realized move

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Near-term EM (1d) is ±$6.19 (1.7%) but heavy pinning means a gap outside EM will be sharp vs the compressed premium sellers expect.
!IV crush impact: Short premium near-dated will benefit from IV decay, but a surprise directional move can wipe out credit; long vega trades pay if realized vol > implied.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid (Total OI 1,576,836; active strikes 251). Some wide markets at deep ITM/OTM strikes (e.g., 305–315 calls) — stick to strikes with displayed OI and active volume.
!Sizing: Keep short-condor notional small relative to account given the possibility of a rare gap; use defined-risk structures to cap tail exposure.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into the $350–$365 cluster (watch 2026-04-10 ATM IV 43.9% and 4/13 42.8%)
?Unusual flow in near-dated $365C and $347.50/$350 puts (could signal directional hedging or large directional bets)
?Price action relative to GEX concentrations at $352.50, $355, and $360 — holds inside these levels increases edge for premium sellers
?Max pain concentration at $320 across expirations — long-term structural level but >10% below spot (watch if large selling pushes toward it)
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.