ThetaOwl

AVGO Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026

DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-06-03 (approx 58 days out). IV elevated at 50.0% with term structure kink at 4/13 (42.3% vs 49.2% pre), indicating crush play viable. Historical beat rate 100% with modest moves, supporting premium-selling strategies. Key risk is gap exceeding EM due to structural call OI walls.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/13 confirms earnings anticipation; historical under-moves favor selling premium.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-06-03, EPS est $2.39
⚠️Gamma flip at $250 far below spot; downside acceleration risk if breached

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Below $250, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration of 14,068 (20.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-03 (58 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/13 (7d): ±$14.05 (4.5%)
  • 4/24 (18d): ±$25.15 (8.0%)
  • 6/03 (approx 58d): implied from term structure kink

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/13 (42.3% vs 49.2% pre-4/10), indicating earnings anticipation; ATM IV 50.0% elevated vs typical

Crush estimate: ~7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~43%

Skew: P/C ratios 1.16 indicate balanced skew, but unusual put flow at OTM strikes suggests hedging

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves modest (surprises +$0.01 to +$0.04), but no explicit move data provided — infer under-moves relative to elevated IV

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias

Key Levels

1$310.00 support (max pain pin)
2$320.00 resistance (GEX pin magnet)
3EM guardrails: $300.38/$328.48

Flow Highlights

Heavy $380 put flow: net $-8,520,376 (likely hedging or bearish bet)

Large institutional put buying far OTM, suggesting downside protection or volatility play

Unusual $315C 4/08 activity: Vol=1,436 vs OI=149 (9.6x), IV=46.6%

Earnings upside speculation near spot, but expiration before earnings indicates short-term gamma play

Strategies

Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $300/$295P x $330/$335C 4/24
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: 297.50/332.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >45%
Historical under-moves and elevated IV support premium sale; strikes calibrated to EM and key levels
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($289.28-$339.58) and IV crushes
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >30% or pinning fails
Long strangle (directional volatility)
Buy $300P x $330C 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Below $295.00 or above $335.00 (approx)
Trigger: Enter if IV dips below 45% pre-earnings
100% beat rate and structural call OI walls suggest potential for larger move; strangle captures tails
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >50% (beyond $289.28-$339.58)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $315, IV crushes post-earnings
Put credit spread (bullish pin play)
Sell $305P / Buy $300P 4/13
Credit: $1.00-$1.50
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: $1.00
BE: $304.00
Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $310 max pain
GEX pinning at $320 and max pain at $310 provide upside bias; defined risk sell-side strategy
Outperforms: Stock pins at or above $310, IV crushes
Underperforms: Break below $305 support

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 4.5% (1w) but structural call OI walls at $360-$390 could cap upside, increasing pin risk
!IV crush of ~7 vol pts may erode long volatility positions if move is muted
!Liquidity: Sufficient OI (1.48M) and volume (142K), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% portfolio) due to elevated IV and pinning dynamics

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (kink at 4/13)
?Spot vs $310 max pain for pin confirmation
?Unusual OTM put flow at $380 for hedging signals

Read the Earnings analysis for AVGO for 2026-04-06. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.