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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $414.57EOD only
Max Pain
$417.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$8.05
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+2.93
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
31
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.15
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
AVGO Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings on 2026-06-03 (approx 58 days out). IV elevated at 50.0% with term structure kink at 4/13 (42.3% vs 49.2% pre), indicating crush play viable. Historical beat rate 100% with modest moves, supporting premium-selling strategies. Key risk is gap exceeding EM due to structural call OI walls.

Confidence:
8.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.4% from MP
Most important: IV term structure kink at 4/13 confirms earnings anticipation; historical under-moves favor selling premium.
📅Earnings confirmed 2026-06-03, EPS est $2.39
⚠️Gamma flip at $250 far below spot; downside acceleration risk if breached

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$250.00 — Below $250, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration of 14,068 (20.5% below spot)

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-03 (58 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/13 (7d): ±$14.05 (4.5%)
  • 4/24 (18d): ±$25.15 (8.0%)
  • 6/03 (approx 58d): implied from term structure kink

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/13 (42.3% vs 49.2% pre-4/10), indicating earnings anticipation; ATM IV 50.0% elevated vs typical

Crush estimate: ~7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~43%

Skew: P/C ratios 1.16 indicate balanced skew, but unusual put flow at OTM strikes suggests hedging

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Historical moves modest (surprises +$0.01 to +$0.04), but no explicit move data provided — infer under-moves relative to elevated IV

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias

Key Levels

1$310.00 support (max pain pin)
2$320.00 resistance (GEX pin magnet)
3EM guardrails: $300.38/$328.48

Flow Highlights

Heavy $380 put flow: net $-8,520,376 (likely hedging or bearish bet)

Large institutional put buying far OTM, suggesting downside protection or volatility play

Unusual $315C 4/08 activity: Vol=1,436 vs OI=149 (9.6x), IV=46.6%

Earnings upside speculation near spot, but expiration before earnings indicates short-term gamma play

Strategies

Iron condor (sell premium)
Sell $300/$295P x $330/$335C 4/24
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $4.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: 297.50/332.50
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >45%
Historical under-moves and elevated IV support premium sale; strikes calibrated to EM and key levels
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM bounds ($289.28-$339.58) and IV crushes
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >30% or pinning fails
Long strangle (directional volatility)
Buy $300P x $330C 4/24
Max loss: Debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Below $295.00 or above $335.00 (approx)
Trigger: Enter if IV dips below 45% pre-earnings
100% beat rate and structural call OI walls suggest potential for larger move; strangle captures tails
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >50% (beyond $289.28-$339.58)
Underperforms: Stock pins near $315, IV crushes post-earnings
Put credit spread (bullish pin play)
Sell $305P / Buy $300P 4/13
Credit: $1.00-$1.50
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: $1.00
BE: $304.00
Trigger: Enter if spot holds above $310 max pain
GEX pinning at $320 and max pain at $310 provide upside bias; defined risk sell-side strategy
Outperforms: Stock pins at or above $310, IV crushes
Underperforms: Break below $305 support

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 4.5% (1w) but structural call OI walls at $360-$390 could cap upside, increasing pin risk
!IV crush of ~7 vol pts may erode long volatility positions if move is muted
!Liquidity: Sufficient OI (1.48M) and volume (142K), but watch for wide spreads on OTM strikes
!Sizing: Keep positions small (<5% portfolio) due to elevated IV and pinning dynamics

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into earnings (kink at 4/13)
?Spot vs $310 max pain for pin confirmation
?Unusual OTM put flow at $380 for hedging signals
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.