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AVGO

Broadcom Inc.Close $417.76EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$15.48
3.7% from close
Price Gap
-2.76
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
34
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.16
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AVGO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AVGO Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~June 3, 2026 (approx 64 days). IV is elevated (50%) vs typical, but term structure shows a sharp kink at the 4/08 and 4/10 expirations, suggesting a nearer-term catalyst. The best strategy is a short premium play (iron condor) due to strong historical EPS beat rate and the stock's tendency to under-move its expected move. Key risk is a large gap on guidance, amplified by the low gamma flip level.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +1 clear earnings date via term structure; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated IV vs normal; -0.5 low near-term liquidity
Most important: Term structure kink at 4/08-4/10 (41-43% IV) suggests a significant event before the explicit June earnings date. Historical data shows 100% EPS beat rate and tendency to under-move expected moves.
⚠️Earnings date conflict: Explicit date is 6/3, but IV term structure screams an event ~4/8-4/10. Prioritize the term structure signal.
📈Historical EPS beat rate is 100% (4/4 quarters). Lowers tail risk of a large downside miss.
🎯Spot ($309.51) is below max pain ($320) in a pinning gamma regime. Bias is for a grind higher into April expirations.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal (IV 50%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$20.4M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$78.6M, P/C 0.77)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 3.3% (spot $309.51 vs MP $320)
Gamma flip: ~$100.00 — Very low gamma flip (~$100) due to massive $100 Put OI. Below $100, dealers amplify moves, but spot is far above. More relevant is pinning near max pain ($320).

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-03 (64 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/08 (8d): ±$14.53 (4.7%)
  • 4/10 (10d): ±$17.30 (5.6%)
  • 6/18 (79d): ±$56.73 (18.3%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/08 (41.7%) and 4/10 (43.3%) vs surrounding 36-37% and longer-dated 45-49%. June expirations (79d) at 49.3%.

Crush estimate: For 4/08-4/10 expirations: ~15-20 vol pts post-event, back to ~30%.

Skew: Flow is net bullish (+$78.6M), but P/C OI ratio is 1.17, indicating more put OI open. Top premium flow is dominated by deep ITM calls ($100, $150).

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot calculate from provided data (no historical move %). EPS surprise consistently positive (+$0.01 to +$0.04).

Directional bias: Insufficient data for post-earnings gap direction.

Key Levels

1$320 (max pain, key resistance)
2$307.5-$310 (near-term support, spot area)
3EM 4/08: $295-$325
4EM 4/10: $292.5-$327.5

Flow Highlights

Massive $100 Put OI (16,235) with huge volume (16,209). Likely a hedge/structured position.

Not a near-term directional signal for spot. Creates a very low gamma flip but spot is far away.

Unusual activity in 4/01 $310P (3,322 vol vs 152 OI) and $320C (3,137 vol vs 910 OI).

Traders positioning for a move around the 4/01 expiration, potentially pinning between $310-$320.

Top premium flow: Net +$29.3M on $100C, +$26.7M on $150C.

Bullish flow is concentrated in deep ITM calls, suggesting leveraged long delta or financing trades, not outright directional bets.

Strategies

Iron Condor (Sell Elevated IV)
Sell $295/$290P x $325/$330C 4/10
Credit: $1.50-$2.00
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.75
BE: 293.25 / 331.75
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before the suspected event (early April), targeting the 4/10 expiration.
IV is elevated for the 4/10 expiry (43.3%). Historical 100% EPS beat rate suggests low risk of a catastrophic miss. Strategy sells the overpriced volatility.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 4.7-5.6% expected move bounds (approx $295-$326). Historical beat rate supports a stable reaction.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond short strikes (>5.6% move). Low gamma flip could amplify a break below $295.
Put Credit Spread (Bullish Bias)
Sell $300P / Buy $295P 4/10
Credit: $1.00-$1.40
Max loss: $4.00
Max gain: $1.20
BE: $299.00
Trigger: On any dip towards $310 support. Use 4/10 expiration.
Bullish flow regime (+$78.6M net prem). Spot is below max pain ($320), creating a gravitational pull higher. Defines risk while collecting premium.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $300. Aligns with bullish net premium flow and spot above key support.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $300, targeting next max pain at $302.5.
Long Straddle (Event Play)
Buy $310 Straddle 4/08
Max loss: Premium paid (~$28-30 est.)
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: ~$282 / ~$338
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days before the implied early April event if IV hasn't spiked further.
For traders believing the term structure kink signals a major binary event (e.g., guidance, M&A) that could cause a larger-than-expected move. High break-even requires a big swing.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds the 4.7% expected move by a wide margin (>7-8%).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $310 and IV crushes from 42% back to 30%.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is 4.7-5.6%. A guidance surprise could exceed this, especially given the low gamma flip (~$100) means little dealer hedging support on a sharp drop.
!IV Crush: IV for 4/08-4/10 is ~42%. Post-event, could drop 15+ points, significantly damaging long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Unusual activity is high in near-term expirations, but overall volume (168K) is below mega-cap levels. Sizing should be adjusted for potential wider spreads.
!Date Ambiguity: The explicit earnings date is June, but term structure suggests an April event. Wrong timing on a short premium trade could lead to early assignment or decay without the crush.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory for 4/08 and 4/10 expirations — further spikes confirm event timing.
?Spot price action relative to $307.5-$310 support and $320 max pain resistance.
?News flow for potential corporate actions (acquisitions, guidance updates) in early April.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.