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APP

Applovin CorporationClose $482.28EOD only

Max Pain

$465.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$23.70

4.9% from close

Price Gap

-17.28

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects APP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

APP Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a weak downward bias toward the $390-$400 max pain cluster, but trapped in a wide, high-volatility range. Confidence: 4/10. The regime remains contradictory: positive GEX suggests pinning, but net premium is massively negative and spot is now 9.1% below the nearest max pain ($425), weakening the gravitational pull.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 4; GEX positive (+1) but flow contradicts (-1) and spot is 9.1% from nearest MP (-1). High IV (83.4%) adds noise.

Supports: GEX +$3.0M (pinning), DEX +7.0M shares (dealer long), P/C ratios <1.0
Conflicts: Net premium -$160.9M (bearish), spot $386.37 vs 2-day MP $425 (9.1% gap), extremely high IV (83.4%)

⚠️Massive net negative premium (-$160.9M) contradicts pinning signal

📊Spot dropped to $386, now 9.1% below nearest MP ($425)

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 83.4% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if you can manage the wide expected moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.0M but gamma flip ~$200 is far below spot — weak pinning force near current price, but dealers are net long gamma.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$160.9M with P/C vol 0.78 — mixed but leaning bearish, dominated by large put premium at deep OTM strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $386.37 is well below the nearest MP ($425) and within a cluster of lower MP levels ($390-$400) — suggests a weak downward drift is possible.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent downtrend from $425 to $410 over the next month, and the high-volatility, low-gamma regime is not expiry-specific. GEX sign is stable positive.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$384.57$388.17

Drift toward 2-day EM support; break above $388.17 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$355.92$416.82

Pinned by weekly EM guardrails; direction depends on flow.

Next 2 weeks

$342.02$430.72

EM expands to $342-$430; downward MP trend provides slight bias.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $425 (2026-03-27); $390 (2026-04-02); $398 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $384.57/$388.17; 1w $355.92/$416.82

Support: $200.00 · $150.00 · $180.00

Resistance: $550.00 · $700.00 · $500.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,910

Structural: **Call OI walls at $500-$900** are extremely distant caps. **Put floor at $150-$300** is a massive, far-away structural support layer, indicating long-term holders are heavily hedged far below.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.0M

DEX: +7.0M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,910)

NTM gamma: Minimal gamma near $386; the ~$200 gamma flip is a distant anchor. If spot drops 2% to ~$378, dealer hedging impact is negligible. A 2% rise to ~$394 also has little gamma effect.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 83.4% — extremely elevated, implying rich volatility. Selling premium has a high implied edge but carries huge tail risk.

Term structure: **Humped with a kink:** 4/02 (14.3%) << 4/10 (62.8%) < 5/08 (83.4%). Peak at 5/08 likely pricing earnings (5/06).

Skew: Steep front-month contango (4/02 to 4/10 +48.5 vol pts) supports short-dated calendar spreads (sell 4/10, buy 4/02).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$160.9M bearish; P/C vol 0.78, P/C OI 0.77

Directional prints: $400C 4/02 vol 4,226 vs OI 1,094 (3.9x) at 32.4% IV — could be call selling against resistance or last-minute speculation. $380P 4/02 vol 1,734 vs OI 274 (6.3x) at 17.6% IV — could be protective put buying or premium selling.

Unusual: Massive put premium at deep OTM strikes ($860-$1000) dominates net flow.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$200 is irrelevant** — spot is in a low-gamma, high-volatility desert where moves can be sharp.

!**Earnings on ~5/06** creates a volatility kink (IV 83.4% on 5/08), leading to potential pre-event crush.

!**Extreme IV (83.4%)** can compress rapidly, hurting long premium positions.

!**Net negative premium -$160.9M** indicates institutional bearish hedging that could become self-fulfilling.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $386.37.	High volatility and weak pinning; stock could drift lower in range.
Short Stock	Moderate-Weak	Sell shares at $386.37.	Positive GEX and DEX provide some pinning support; defined-risk alternatives better.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $400C 4/10 (~weekly) or $425C 4/17.	Stock drifts down, pinning you with capital loss.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $380/$375 put spread 4/10 (below 2-day EM support).	Break below $355.92 weekly support.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid — IV 83.4% is too rich for buying.	Vol crush and time decay.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy $390/$380 put spread 4/10, betting on drift to MP cluster.	High IV makes debit expensive; pinning holds.
Iron Condor	Moderate	$380P/$375P x $415C/$420C 4/10 (within 1w EM bounds).	GEX positive but VIX proxy >28 (IV 83.4%), so edge is only Moderate per threshold.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $400C 4/10 (IV 62.8%), Buy $400C 4/02 (IV 14.3%). Bet on pin at $400 with vol decay.	Spot moves away from $400, hurting short leg.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy $300C Jan 2027 (IV 75.2%), sell $400C 4/10 against it. Leverages long delta with premium collection.	Capital intensive; short call caps upside near resistance.

Top Plays

Put Credit Spread (30+ DTE)

Sell $380 Put / Buy $375 Put, 5/15 expiry (43 DTE)

Defined-risk premium sale in a high-IV, positive GEX regime. The 43 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis, giving time for the pin to work and avoiding weekly noise. Strike is below the 2-week EM support ($342) for a massive buffer.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $378.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $355.92 (1w support).

Defined-risk traders wanting to sell rich volatility with a multi-week horizon.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $400 Call 4/10, Buy $400 Call 4/02

Capitalizes on the extreme 48.5 vol-pt contango and the multi-week pinning regime around the $390-$400 MP cluster. Best if you believe spot oscillates near $400 through next week.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: Unlimited (short call risk)

BE: Complex; max profit if spot at $400 at 4/02 expiry.

Mgmt: Close when short IV collapses post-4/02 or if spot moves >±$5 from $400. Roll short leg if challenged.

Traders comfortable with pinning dynamics seeking to harvest vol differential.

Covered Call

Own stock, sell $400 Call 4/10 expiry

Generates income in a range-bound, high-premium environment. The $400 strike is near the 1-week EM resistance ($416.82) and the 4/10 max pain ($397.50), a logical pin boundary. This expresses a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view while mitigating volatility drag.

Credit: $6.50-$8.00

Max loss: Stock depreciation below purchase price.

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit.

Mgmt: Roll up and out if challenged. Consider taking assignment if above $400.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield, or those willing to buy stock for the covered call.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to tag $400 (near 4/10 MP) and stalls → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $400C 4/10, Buy $400C 4/02.

IFSpot drops to $380 (near 2-day EM support) with IV > 75% → Sell $380/$375 put spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $355.92 (1w EM support lower bound) → Exit all short put positions and reconsider bullish bias.

EXITSpot breaks above $416.82 (1w EM resistance upper bound) → Exit short call positions (calendars, covered call shorts).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-volatility pinning within a wide range ($355-$416), with a slight downward drift toward the $390-$400 max pain cluster. The regime favors selling premium (high IV, positive GEX) with defined risk. Top plays: 1) 43 DTE put spread (multi-week premium sale), 2) Reverse calendar (tactical, pin harvest), 3) Covered call (shareholder income). Invalidation: a sustained break outside the 1-week expected move bounds.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.