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APP

Applovin CorporationClose $482.28EOD only

Max Pain

$465.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$23.70

4.9% from close

Price Gap

-17.28

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.86

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects APP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

APP Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer directional report is available for April 2, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a slight downward bias toward the $392-$400 pin cluster, but trapped in a wide, high-volatility range. Confidence: 4/10. The regime is contradictory: positive GEX suggests pinning, but net premium is heavily negative and spot is far from the nearest max pain, creating a weak gravitational pull.

Confidence:

4 / 10

Base 4; GEX positive (+1) but flow contradicts (-1) and spot is 6.4% from nearest MP (-1). High IV (80.6%) adds noise.

Supports: GEX +$3.7M (pinning), DEX +7.1M shares (dealer long), P/C ratios <1.0
Conflicts: Net premium -$150.4M (bearish), spot $398 vs 2-day MP $425 (6.8% gap), extremely high IV (80.6%)

⚠️Massive net negative premium (-$150M) contradicts pinning signal

📊Gamma flip ~$200 is far below, leaving spot in a low-gamma, high-volatility zone

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 80.6% — extremely high, favoring premium sellers if you can manage the wide expected moves.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.7M but gamma flip ~$200 is far below spot — weak pinning force near current price, but dealers are net long gamma.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net prem -$150.4M with P/C vol 0.88 — mixed but leaning bearish, dominated by large put premium at deep OTM strikes.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $398 is below the nearest MP ($425) and within a cluster of lower MP levels ($392-$400) — suggests a weak downward drift is possible.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent downtrend from $425 to $410 over the next month, and the high-volatility, low-gamma regime is not expiry-specific. GEX sign is stable positive.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$383.45$412.55

Drift toward 4/02 max pain; break above $412.55 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$381.65$414.35

Pinned by weekly EM guardrails; direction depends on flow.

Next 2 weeks

$351.45$444.55

EM expands to $351-$444; downward MP trend provides slight bias.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $425 (2026-03-27); $392 (2026-04-02); $400 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $383.45/$412.55; 1w $381.65/$414.35

Support: $200.00 · $150.00 · $180.00

Resistance: $550.00 · $500.00 · $700.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,920

Structural: **Call OI walls at $500-$900** are extremely distant caps. **Put floor at $150-$300** is a massive, far-away structural support layer, indicating long-term holders are heavily hedged far below.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.7M

DEX: +7.1M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 3,920)

NTM gamma: Minimal gamma near $398; the ~$200 gamma flip is a distant anchor. If spot drops 2% to ~$390, dealer hedging impact is negligible. A 2% rise to ~$406 also has little gamma effect.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 80.6% — extremely elevated, implying rich volatility. Selling premium has a high implied edge but carries huge tail risk.

Term structure: **Humped with a kink:** 4/02 (63.1%) < 4/10 (71.8%) > 4/17 (67.7%). Peak at 5/08 (85.7%) likely pricing earnings (5/06).

Skew: Steep front-month contango (4/02 to 4/10 +8.7 vol pts) supports short-dated calendar spreads (sell 4/10, buy 4/02).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$150.4M bearish; P/C vol 0.88, P/C OI 0.79

Directional prints: $375P 4/02 vol 620 vs OI 164 (3.8x) at 62.1% IV — could be protective put buying or selling. $410C 4/10 vol 336 vs OI 165 (2.0x) — could be call buying for a bounce or call selling against resistance.

Unusual: $700C OI 2,465 with vol 404 — high activity at a distant call wall.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$200 is irrelevant** — spot is in a low-gamma, high-volatility desert where moves can be sharp.

!**Earnings on ~5/06** creates a volatility kink (IV 85.7% on 5/08), leading to potential pre-event crush.

!**Extreme IV (80.6%)** can compress rapidly, hurting long premium positions.

!**Net negative premium -$150M** indicates institutional bearish hedging that could become self-fulfilling.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $398.	High volatility and weak pinning; stock could drift lower in range.
Short Stock	Moderate-Weak	Sell shares at $398.	Positive GEX and DEX provide some pinning support; defined-risk alternatives better.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $410C 4/10 (~weekly) or $425C 4/17.	Stock drifts down, pinning you with capital loss.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $385/$380 put spread 4/10 (below 1w EM support).	Break below $381.65 support.
Long Calls	Weak	Avoid — IV 80.6% is too rich for buying.	Vol crush and time decay.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate	Buy $400/$390 put spread 4/10, betting on drift to MP cluster.	High IV makes debit expensive; pinning holds.
Iron Condor	Moderate	$385P/$380P x $415C/$420C 4/10 (within 1w EM bounds).	GEX positive but VIX proxy >28 (IV 80.6%), so edge is only Moderate per threshold.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $400C 4/10 (IV 71.8%), Buy $400C 4/02 (IV 63.1%). Bet on pin at $400 with vol decay.	Spot moves away from $400, hurting short leg.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy $300C Jan 2027 (IV 75.5%), sell $410C 4/10 against it. Leverages long delta with premium collection.	Capital intensive; short call caps upside near resistance.

Top Plays

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $400 Call 4/10, Buy $400 Call 4/02

Capitalizes on the steep 8.7 vol-pt contango and the multi-week pinning regime around the $392-$400 MP cluster. Best if you believe spot oscillates near $400 through next week.

Credit: $0.85-$1.10

Max loss: Unlimited (short call risk)

BE: Complex; max profit if spot at $400 at 4/02 expiry.

Mgmt: Close when short IV collapses post-4/02 or if spot moves >±$5 from $400. Roll short leg if challenged.

Traders comfortable with pinning dynamics seeking to harvest vol differential.

Put Credit Spread (30+ DTE)

Sell $380 Put / Buy $375 Put, 5/15 expiry (45 DTE)

Defined-risk premium sale in a high-IV, positive GEX regime. The 45 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis, giving time for the pin to work and avoiding weekly noise. Strike is below the 2-week EM support ($351) for a buffer.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $378.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $381.65 (1w support).

Defined-risk traders wanting to sell rich volatility with a multi-week horizon.

Covered Call

Own stock, sell $410 Call 4/10 expiry

Generates income in a range-bound, high-premium environment. The $410 strike is at the 1-week EM resistance, a logical pin boundary. This expresses a neutral-to-slightly-bullish view while mitigating volatility drag.

Credit: $6.50-$8.00

Max loss: Stock depreciation below purchase price.

BE: Stock purchase price minus credit.

Mgmt: Roll up and out if challenged. Consider taking assignment if above $410.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield, or those willing to buy stock for the covered call.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to tag $410 (1w EM resistance) and stalls → Enter reverse calendar: Sell $410C 4/10, Buy $410C 4/02.

IFSpot drops to $385 (near 2d EM support) with IV > 75% → Sell $385/$380 put spread 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $381.65 (1w EM support lower bound) → Exit all short put positions and reconsider bullish bias.

EXITSpot breaks above $414.35 (1w EM resistance upper bound) → Exit short call positions (calendars, covered call shorts).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-volatility pinning within a wide range ($381-$414), with a slight downward drift toward the $392-$400 max pain cluster. The regime favors selling premium (high IV, positive GEX) with defined risk. Top plays: 1) Reverse calendar (tactical, pin harvest), 2) 45 DTE put spread (multi-week premium sale), 3) Covered call (shareholder income). Invalidation: a sustained break outside the 1-week expected move bounds.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.