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AMZN

Amazon.com, Inc.Close $270.64EOD only
Max Pain
$265.00
Next expiry Jun 1, 2026
Expected Move
±$3.83
1.4% from close
Price Gap
-5.64
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
29
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.57
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMZN options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 29, 2026 close
AMZN Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 8, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 8, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

AMZN is in a pinning regime (GEX +$386.4M) with bullish flow and spot above max-pain; base confidence 7.0/10. Best strategy is to sell bounded premium (iron-condor or call+put spreads) into the May/near-month expirations or run a directional long straddle if you expect a large beat — size small because IV is elevated (~44.9% at the earnings-relevant tenor). Key risk: a gap beyond the 1‑week EM rails (±2.7% → $215.26–$227.24) which can blow past dealer pinning and produce fast moves.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.6% from MP
Most important: Watch IV at the 23‑day tenor (2026-05-01 ATM IV 44.9%) and whether flow/positions continue to concentrate at $220–$225 (pin magnets).
📌GEX concentration at $220.00 (+$40.5M) and $217.50 (+$25.0M) creates a strong pin magnet near spot.
📈23d ATM IV 44.9% (2026-05-01) — elevated vs 2d/5d tenors; expect sizable IV compression after the Apr 30 event if results are in-line.
🕵️Historical earnings: 3 of last 4 quarters beat (75%); tendency toward modest upside surprises, not consistent blowouts.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
Normal
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (22 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-05-01 (23d): ±$19.50 (8.8%) [$201.75 - $240.75]

IV Setup

Term structure: ATM IV is elevated into the earnings-relevant tenor: 2d 34.1% → 23d 44.9% (kinked higher in the 3-4 week bucket).

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts post-event (from 44.9% down toward the mid-30s), so expect meaningful IV compression if results simply meet expectations.

Skew: Skew is relatively flat at the near-spot strikes but put flow is present at $220–$217.50 (unusual activity); overall market P/C ratios (volume 0.57, OI 0.59) point to more call buying than put buying in aggregate.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 quarters beat or beat materially: 2025-09-30, 2025-06-30, 2025-03-31)

Avg move vs expected: Company has tended to produce modest surprises rather than blowouts; implied moves here (23d ±8.8%) are large relative to historical realized beats which often produce contained gaps.

Directional bias: Tends to lean to upside on beats (recent cluster of positive surprises), but not reliably oversized moves.

Key Levels

1$220.00 (GEX +$40.5M pin; -0.6% from spot)
2$217.50 (GEX +$25.0M pin; 18,737 call OI concentration)
3EM: $215.26-$227.24 (1w guardrails)

Flow Highlights

Very large net premium at $245.00: Call $2,812,296 / Put $32,447,075 / Net $-29,634,780

Heavy put premium at $245 (net negative) is likely dealers buying puts or hedges — contrasts with large call premium at $250 (net positive $22,091,244) indicating mixed directional positioning and sizable flow in front-month strikes.

Notable call premium at $250.00 (Call $23,722,804 / Put $1,631,560 / Net $22,091,244)

Large bullish call interest farther OTM suggesting some participants position for a larger upside scenario; dealers may be short calls out beyond the structural wall ($235-$300).

Strategies

Iron condor (defined premium sale)
Sell 215/210 put spread + sell 225/230 call spread — expiration 2026-05-01 (use strikes from available list).
Credit: $1.80-$2.50
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: 210.50 / 227.50
Trigger: Enter 3–7 days before earnings if IV stays elevated near 45% and you can collect mid/high single-digit % of width.
Pinning regime (GEX concentrated at $220/$217.50) and bullish flow support selling balanced premium inside the 1‑week EM rails; collects elevated IV while dealer pinning helps magnet toward center.
Outperforms: AMZN stays inside EM rails (keeps within $215–$227) and IV compresses after earnings.
Underperforms: A guidance-driven gap exceeds EM by >50% or a rapid directional move breaches the short wing before you can delta-hedge.
Long straddle (directional/volatility capture)
Buy 220 straddle expiration 2026-05-01 (buy 220C + 220P).
Max loss: $19.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 201.75 / 240.75
Trigger: Enter 1–2 days before earnings if you expect a material guidance surprise and IV doesn't run substantially higher than current 44.9%.
Simple way to capture a beat/miss beyond the large implied move; use small sizing because straddle cost approximates the expected move.
Outperforms: Actual move (or implied vol expansion) exceeds the 23d EM (~±$19.50, 8.8%).
Underperforms: Earnings come in line, stock pins near $220–$225 and IV crushes back toward the mid-30s.
Directional put vertical (downside hedge or directional bearish play)
Buy 215/205 put vertical expiration 2026-05-01 (debit spread).
Debit: $1.25-$2.25
Max loss: $2.25
Max gain: $7.75
BE: $212.75
Trigger: Enter if you want limited downside exposure while selling other premium or as a hedge when holding stock into earnings.
Pays for protection against gap-down risk at a smaller cost than outright puts; uses available strikes (215 and 205).
Outperforms: Stock gaps down below ~212.75 and realized move plus delta carry outpaces IV compression.
Underperforms: Pinning and bullish flow hold price inside EM and IV compresses — spread will decay.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM for the 23‑day tenor is ±$19.50 (8.8%); guidance or surprises can easily exceed the 1‑week rails ($215.26–$227.24).
!IV crush: ATM IV at the earnings-relevant tenor is 44.9%; expect a large IV reduction (~8–10 vol pts) if results are only in-line, which hurts long volatility trades.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid at near-spot strikes (20k–30k volume/large OI at 217.50/220), but farther OTM strikes have thin markets — avoid wide fills and size accordingly.
!Dealer pinning: GEX +$386.4M concentrated at $220/$217.50/$225 supports pin risk (stock may be pulled toward these levels), making naked premium selling more favorable but amplifying gamma around those pins.
!Sizing: Keep position sizes conservative on long-vol (straddle) — suggested max notional per trade well below typical allocation given elevated implied move and potential for one-sided gap.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 2026-05-01 (is the 23d ATM IV rising above 44.9% or falling back?)
?Unusual activity at $220/$217.50/$215 puts (heavy volumes noted) — could indicate dealer hedging or client protection buys.
?Net premium flows at $245 and $250 (large opposite-signed premiums) that could presage directional positioning
?Close monitoring of the $220 pin: any fast move away could unwind dealer hedges and accelerate price moves
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 8, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.