base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$93.0M; DEX +81.2M); +1 pinning regime; -1 spot 15.9% from MP (pre-computed); +0.5 VIX 18.36 (calm tail)
Term structure: Front-months are elevated but slope is modest: 3d ATM 48.6% -> 31d ATM 55.3% -> 45d ATM ~53.4% (humped but generally rich in front/near term)
Spot vs MP: Above by 15.9% (spot $255.07 vs max pain cluster around $220 pre-computed; near-term mp pins: $220/$225 for April expirations)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$93.0M) — concentrated positive gamma near-the-money acts as a magnet
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Gamma flip ~ $200; below that dealers switch sign and can amplify moves — well below spot so not an immediate threat to near-term credit spreads
OI concentrations: Large put OI at $200 (27,969) and heavy call OI at $250 (18,243), $260 (11,831) and $255 (6,538) — strong magnetic call-wall around $250-$260
#1call spread
Sell 260/270 call spread exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)
Heavy call flow and GEX pinning at 250/260 (net premium flow concentrated on $260 and $250) with elevated IV (Avg IV 62.4%) — defined-risk call spreads capture rich premium while respecting bullish flow.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit; roll higher by one strike and +30–45 DTE if AMD closes >260 on 3-consecutive sessions; cut losses and close if AMD >270 (short strike) on 2nd daily close, or if IV collapses >20% vs entry.
#2put spread (bull put)
Sell 245/240 put spread exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
Spot $255.07 is above near-term EM lower bounds and dealer pinning is bullish; selling a tight bull-put spread beneath current price benefits from positive flow and elevated IV (front-month ATM ~51–55%).
Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of realized credit; roll down 3–5 strikes and out 30–45 DTE if price closes below 244.87 (2d EM lower guardrail); close immediately if price drops below $237.55 (1-week EM lower).
#3covered call
Buy 100 shares AMD and sell 1x 255 call exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)
Covered call harvest: 255 strike is ATM/nearly ATM with mid-term IV elevated; bullish flow and pinning make assignment less likely until strong move, and the credit materially lowers effective basis.
Mgmt: Close short call at 50–75% profit or if AMD rallies and tests 260 on any close; if assigned and you want to stay long, buy to close and re-sell a higher call or roll out 30–45 DTE.
#4iron condor (defined-risk wings)
Sell 247.5/255 call spread + sell 235/227.5 put spread exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)
Wide defined-risk wings take advantage of rich IV and pinning near 250–255; structure balances bullish flow with protected downside (put wing well above structural put floor $140-$200).
Mgmt: Take profit at 40–60% of max credit; tighten or close if AMD closes outside either short strike for 2 consecutive sessions; roll the tested side out 1–2 strikes and +30 DTE only if skew/IV remain supportive.
#5calendar (long-dated call sell short front)
Long 2026-08-21 (129d) 260 call, short 2026-04-24 (10d) 260 call (front-week decay capture)
Term structure shows carry in near-term IV with front-month still rich; use calendar to monetize high short-term theta while keeping long protection given bullish flow. Use only if you can manage early assignment and margin.
Mgmt: Close short leg into 50–70% of its max value decay (or before earnings); if short leg is threatened (price tests 260 within 3 days), close or roll short leg out 1 week and collect further premium; monitor IV skew.
!Earnings on 2026-05-05 (TBD) — do not hold unhedged naked options through earnings; close or roll positions with expirations that cross the date.
!Gamma flip ~ $200 — large structural change below that level could accelerate move; while far from spot, it's the dealer regime boundary.
!Short-strike concentration at $250/$255/$260 (GEX magnets) — these strikes can pin the stock but also concentrate liquidation/assignment risk if price rapidly gaps through them.
!IV front-month is elevated (3d ATM 48.6%) — can compress quickly if no catalyst (IV crush risk); defined-risk spreads preferred over naked short options.
!Unusual activity: near-term puts at $252.50 (exp 4/17 OI=318, Vol 2,766) and heavy 4/17 put flow at $250 and $245 — pay attention to block flows; could signal institutional hedges or directional bias into near expirations.