base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$228.3M); +1 Pinning regime; -1 spot 11.4% above max pain
Term structure: Front-week ATM (7d) 50.7% and 14d 51.7% with a rising hump into 28–42d (59.4% → 60.0%) — good pickings in the 30–45 DTE window
Spot vs MP: Above (Spot $245.04 vs Max Pain $220.00 — spot is higher)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$228.3M, dealers long gamma hedging likely to pin)
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Gamma flip estimated near $200 — below that dealers move from pinning to accelerating downside; currently well above flip
OI concentrations: Large put wall $200 (20,429 OI) and sizable call walls $250 (18,027 OI), $240 (16,915 OI), $220 call (16,865 OI); strongest near-term GEX magnets at $245 (+$127.2M), $240 (+$16.1M), $250 (+$11.5M)
#1put spread (defined-risk)
Sell 235/230 put spread 2026-04-17 (7 DTE) — lean short against the pin and near-term OI
Near-term pinning regime with concentrated GEX around $240–$245 and strong put OI tail supports short put spread just below current spot; 235 put mid ~3.00 and 230 put ~1.97 (net ≈1.03 credit) — favorable theta and short-dated risk.
Mgmt: Take 65% of max profit; if price trades/consolidates below $240 tighten to 50% profit; roll down or close if underlying closes below $231.31 (1w EM lower bound) or if spread reaches 50% of max loss
#2call spread (defined-risk)
Sell 250/260 call spread 2026-04-17 (7 DTE)
Call-side premium is rich around 250 (large call OI 18,027) and GEX pinning near spot increases chance calls remain OTM short-term; selling a 10-wide 250/260 reduces assignment risk vs naked calls while collecting strong credit (short 250 call ~4.60, long 260 ~1.84 → net ~2.76).
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if AMD rallies and tests 250 short strike consider rolling up 1 strike and out 1 week or buy back at 30% of max loss; cut losses if spread hits 60% of max loss or underlying closes >$258 (beyond 1-week EM upper bound $258.76)
#3iron condor (two-sided defined-risk)
Sell 235/230 put and 250/260 call 2026-04-17 (7 DTE) — combine the two setups above
Two-sided defined-risk income benefits from pinning (GEX +$127.2M at $245) and concentrated OI. Front-week width pairing captures outsized front-week IV while keeping risk defined.
Mgmt: Take 50% profit on total credit; if either short strike is tested buy back that wing and try to reestablish further out or wider for a debit; cut the entire IC if underlying closes below $231.31 or above $258.76
#4covered call (income)
Sell 1x 245 call against long stock 2026-04-17 (7 DTE) or 2026-04-24 (14 DTE) depending on appetite
Deep short-dated call premium (245 call mid ~6.98 for front weeks) thanks to elevated IV and dealer activity at-the-money; good if you own or are willing to buy stock for yield and want to monetize the heavy front-week call premium.
Mgmt: Close at 60% of premium captured; buy to close if AMD rallies and threatens assignment above $245 with less than 2 trading days; if assigned, convert to covered basis and consider rolling up
#5cash-secured put
Sell 230 put 2026-04-24 (14 DTE) (cash-secured)
If comfortable owning AMD, selling the 230 put collects ~1.97 (14d mid ~1.97) while sitting above major long-term structural put floor ($140–$200). Positive GEX pinning and put OI support create asymmetry for sellers.
Mgmt: Close at 65% of max profit; if tested, roll down ~5–10 strikes and out 14–30 days; close or buy back if AMD closes below $231.31 or moves sharply toward $220 max pain
!Max pain trend sits at $220 across expirations — a sustained move lower toward $220 would threaten short put exposure.
!Gamma flip ~ $200 — large dealer positioning and put OI below $200 (20,429 @ $200) could accelerate downside if breached; exit credits below $200–$205 domain.
!Upcoming earnings 2026-05-05 (≈25 days) — avoid naked short exposure into earnings; prefer defined-risk if you must carry through reporting or close before earnings.
!Unusual flow: very large call premium flow at strikes $210/$260/$220 and concentrated near-spot GEX (+$127.2M at $245) — watch for institutional squeezes or directional follow-through that can lift IV and test short strikes.
!High IV (Avg IV 64.3%) is favorable now, but IV can compress quickly if large buyers unwind — manage positions by profit taking and defined risk sizing.