base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 8.8% from MP
Term structure: Front-week 1-4w ATM ~50-52% then rises into 29-43d (ATM 56-58%) — small hump into May 8-22 creating good 30-45 DTE seller opportunities
Spot vs MP: Spot $236.64 is above max pain pins ($218 on 4/10; $210 on 4/17; $220 on 4/24) — distance ~8.8% from nearest MP
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$109.2M) — large positive gamma exposure, dealers likely to pin toward concentrated OI
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Gamma flip is near $200 — below this dealers flip from being short to long gamma and price moves can accelerate
OI concentrations: Put wall at $200 (20,485 OI); call walls at $180 (24,998 OI) and $220 (17,422 OI); strong GEX concentration at $240 (+$14.9M), $235 (+$12.6M), $230 (+$9.8M)
#1put spread
Sell 225/220 put spread 2026-04-24 (≈15 DTE)
Short-dated defined-risk put spread inside the 1-week EM lower guardrail ($222.84) and above major put OI at $200; collects elevated front-week IV while staying well above gamma flip
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit; roll down/close if AMD closes below $222.84 (1w EM lower guardrail) or if spread hits 75% of max loss
#2put spread (30-45 DTE)
Sell 220/210 put spread 2026-05-08 (≈29 DTE)
30 DTE window where ATM IV rises (May 8 ATM 58.5%) — selling a deeper put spread captures higher theta and rests above structural put floor and gamma flip; aligns with MP trend rising toward $220
Mgmt: Close at 60% of max profit; roll 1-2 strikes down and collect additional credit if short strike is tested but GEX pinning still present; cut losses if price closes below $200 or spread reaches 75% of max loss
#3covered call / call vertical
Covered call: buy 100 shares and sell 240 call 2026-04-17 (≈8 DTE) OR call spread sell 240/245 2026-04-17 (8 DTE)
Strong GEX pin at $240 (+$14.9M) and high call OI near $240/$250 makes selling short-dated calls attractive; covered call collects elevated short-term IV; defined-risk spread limits upside assignment risk while still collecting rich call premium
Mgmt: For covered calls, close/roll if AMD > $240 into expiry or if stock drops below $225; for call spread, take 50% profit, or close if spot > short strike or IV pops >10 vol points
#4iron condor (defined-risk)
Sell 230/225 put and 245/250 call iron condor 2026-04-24 (≈15 DTE)
Uses short put protection just above concentrated put OI zones and short calls at strong GEX call magnet $245–$250; 15 DTE collects elevated IV while keeping risk defined and balanced around current spot
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit; close or roll if either short strike is tested (daily close beyond short strike) or if AMD breaks beyond 1-week EM guardrails ($222.84 or $250.44)
#5calendar (long-dated calendar on calls)
Sell 2026-04-17 235 call and buy 2026-05-08 235 call (calendar, ≈8d front / 29d back)
Front-week IV still elevated but term structure is higher out to May; calendar captures accelerated theta decay on short call while keeping directional neutral exposure; good when pinning holds spot near $235–$240
Mgmt: Take profits if short leg decays >80% or if short IV collapses; roll short leg forward if spot stays at target and collect additional premium; close if price moves >2.5% beyond short strike or IV drops >8 vol points
!Max pain is materially lower than spot (nearest MP $217.50 on 2026-04-10) — potential downside magnet; avoid naked short puts without defined risk
!Gamma flip ~$200 — significant downside acceleration risk if price starts toward $200; defined-risk structures preferred if breaching $210–$200 area
!Unusual concentrated short-dated put flow at $235/$232.5 for 2026-04-10 — elevated activity around spot increases pinning and short-term assignment risk (watch 4/10 expirations closely)
!Earnings 2026-05-05 (within ~4 weeks) — avoid selling large naked premium through earnings; prefer defined-risk or close before announcement
!Exposed call OI clusters at $240/$250 and large GEX at $240 create a two-way pin — price may be held between $230–$245 but can gap if macro news or dealer flows change