base 5; +2 extremely high IV; +1 strong pinning GEX; +1 spot above max pain; -1 falling MP trend
Term structure: Humped at 29-43 DTE (53-58%), elevated across the curve
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 6.1% (spot $217.50 vs MP $205)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$144.4M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Far below spot. Below $165, positive GEX flips sign? (Data shows +GEX, but OI suggests put wall). Treat $165 as critical support.
OI concentrations: Massive put wall at $165 (30.8K OI), call wall at $180 (25.1K OI). Key battlegrounds at $200 (both P/C).
#1put spread
Sell $200/$195 put spread 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
High IV (53.1%) provides rich credit. Short strike aligns with massive $200 OI battleground (21.4K puts, 19.6K calls), which should act as strong support. Strike is ~8% below spot, outside the 8.1% 15-day expected move but inside the 11.9% 29-day move. Defined risk in a pinning GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if AMD closes below $202.50 (test of short strike). Do not roll. Be aware of earnings on 5/5 — close before announcement.
#2iron condor
Sell $200/$195P x $235/$240C 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Captures high IV (51.6%) across both sides. Range ($200-$235) is 16% wide, bracketing the 10.1% expected move. Short puts anchor to the $200 OI support; short calls are below the $240 call wall (16.8K OI). Positive GEX supports range-bound price action.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out in time for a credit if possible. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $180 put 2026-05-15 (43 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own AMD. Strike is the major $180 OI call wall (25.1K), which may flip to support. It's also a significant put OI level (17.1K). 43 DTE IV is high (56.5%). Credit represents ~4.2-5.3% of strike in 43 days. Strike is ~17% below spot, providing a large buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Roll down/out only if strike is tested and you still want exposure. Be aware of earnings on 5/5 — close or roll before.
#4call credit spread
Sell $235/$240 call spread 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Selling into high, short-dated IV (50.3%) for accelerated theta decay. Short strike is below the $240 call OI wall (16.8K), providing resistance. The spread is defined risk against an upward trending move, which is less likely in a strong pinning GEX regime. Spot is well below the short strike.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit (fast decay). Exit if AMD closes above $230. No earnings risk in this timeframe.
!Earnings estimated 2026-05-05 (~33 days out). Close or roll all short premium positions before this date — never hold naked shorts through earnings.
!Gamma regime is PINNING (GEX +$144.4M). This favors range-bound price action, but a break of key OI levels could see acceleration as dealers adjust hedges.
!Massive, concentrated OI at $165 put (30.8K). This is the gamma flip and ultimate support. A break below this level could trigger significant selling.
!Max pain trend is FALLING ($205 → $200 → $180 long-dated). This suggests underlying pressure may be building to the downside over time. Monitor spot vs. near-term max pain at $205.
!Net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$181.5M, P/C 0.92). This is a contrarian signal for credit sellers — the crowd is buying calls, particularly at $210. Reinforces the case for selling call spreads.
!Unusual activity in weekly puts ($215, $212.5 for 4/2) suggests some are hedging near-term downside. However, spot remains well above these strikes and max pain.