Term structure: Steeply inverted: 62% (2 DTE) down to 54% (17-31 DTE), then hump at 38-45 DTE (~59%)
Spot vs MP: At max pain $205 (spot $203.43, -0.8%)
GEX regime: Trending (GEX -$11.3M — pro-cyclical)
Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Far below spot. Below $165, negative GEX accelerates selling.
OI concentrations: Massive put wall at $165 (30.6K OI), call wall at $180 (25.1K OI). $200 is key battleground.
#1put spread
Sell $180/$175 put spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
High IV provides rich credit. Short strike aligns with major $180 call OI wall, which may act as support. Strike is ~12% below spot, outside the 10.1% 17-day expected move ($182.88). Defined risk in a trending GEX regime.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if AMD closes below $182.50 (test of short strike). Do not roll.
#2iron condor
Sell $185/$180P x $220/$225C 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Captures high IV across both sides. Wings are placed beyond major OI concentrations ($180P/$220C). Provides an 18% wide range around spot, inside the 11.4% expected move. 24 DTE is a sweet spot for theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out in time for a credit if possible. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $165 put 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers. Strike is the massive 30.6K OI put wall and coincides with the gamma flip. 45 DTE IV is high (59.3%). Credit represents ~4.9% of strike in 45 days. Willingness to own at $165 (~19% below spot).
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Roll down/out only if strike is tested and you still want exposure. Be aware of earnings on 5/5 — close or roll before.
#4call credit spread
Sell $220/$225 call spread 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)
Net premium flow is heavily bullish (P/C 0.60), but the $220 call is a major OI wall (17.7K). This creates resistance. Selling into high, short-dated IV (54% for 4/10) for quick theta decay. Defined risk against a trending move up.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit (fast decay). Exit if AMD closes above $218. No earnings risk in this timeframe.
!Earnings estimated 2026-05-05 (~35 days out). Close or roll all short premium positions before this date — never hold naked shorts through earnings.
!Gamma regime is TRENDING (GEX -$11.3M). This means dealers amplify price moves, increasing the risk of a swift breakout from the current range. Favor defined-risk spreads.
!Massive, concentrated OI at $165 put. A break below this level could trigger accelerated selling due to negative gamma, targeting the next OI cluster at $150.
!IV is extremely high (62%). While great for selling, be aware of volatility crush risk if IV normalizes rapidly. This benefits short premium but can make exiting long-option hedges costly.
!Unusual activity in weekly puts ($207.5, $212.5 for 4/2) suggests some are hedging near-term downside. Monitor spot vs. $205 max pain this week.
!Net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$58.8M, P/C 0.60). This is a contrarian signal for credit sellers — the crowd is buying calls. Reinforces the case for selling call spreads.