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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $467.51EOD only
Max Pain
$400.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$33.20
7.1% from close
Price Gap
-67.51
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
65
High premium
P/C OI
1.09
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

High-confidence (7.0/10) setup. Market is in a pinning, bullish regime with big dealer long-gamma exposure (GEX +$109.2M) and concentrated call premium flow (notably heavy buyer-side dollars at $180, $210, $235, $240). Best single strategy: a defined-risk directional/bull-call spread or skewed premium sell (iron-type) sized to tolerate a post-guidance gap — this captures both dealer pinning and rich call-side flows. Key risk: a large guidance-driven gap beyond EM guardrails (EM 1w up to $250.44) that overwhelms pinning and produces quick adverse fills.

Confidence:
7 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$109.2M, bullish premium flow); +1 pinning (near-term GEX concentration at $235/$240); -1 spot 8.8% above max pain
Most important: Near-term pinning at $235/$240 (GEX +$12.6M / +$14.9M) — watch whether spot holds between the EM guardrails $231.54-$241.73 into the next 48 hours.
📅Earnings date set for 2026-05-05 (26 days out) — current short-dated pinning is likely driven by flow unrelated to the confirmed date.
📌Pin magnets: $235 and $240 have concentrated GEX (+$12.6M / +$14.9M) — these are the single most important technical anchors near spot.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Flow Regime
Bullish
Spot vs MP
Above
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Gamma flip sits around ~$200 (put OI concentration 20,485, ~15.5% below spot). Below this level dealers amplify moves; currently well above flip so dealers are net long-gamma near spot.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-05 (26 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): 7: $231.54 - $241.73 (±$5.09 / 2.1%)
  • 2026-04-17 (8d): 7: $222.84 - $250.44 (±$13.80 / 5.8%)
  • 2026-04-24 (15d): 7: $227.26 - $246.01 (±$9.38 / 4.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Near-term ATM IVs sit ~51% (2026-04-10: 51.0; 04-17: 50.0; 04-24: 51.1) while overall Avg IV is elevated at 62.3% — skew shows elevated longer-dated vols (May 8–May 22 rises to mid-50s-to-high-50s).

Crush estimate: ~6–8 vol points for a short-dated event if realized vol reverts to the current short-term ATM ~50–51%; longer-dated options (spanning actual May earnings) retain higher IVs so a near-term crush will be muted for May-dated expiries.

Skew: Call-side premium is dominant (top premium flow concentrated in calls at $180, $210, $235, $240). Puts have notable OI at $200 but flow and P/C volume ratio (0.74) favor call demand.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat: 2025-12, 2025-09, 2025-03)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided; recent surprises small-to-moderate (EPS surprises +0.16, +0.02, +0.03, -0.01), suggesting earnings tend to slightly beat estimates rather than produce extreme gaps.

Directional bias: Biased to upside after results (majority of recent beats), available: true

Key Levels

1$240.00 (GEX +$14.9M pin, +1.4% from spot)
2$235.00 (GEX +$12.6M pin, -0.7% from spot)
3$230.00 (GEX +$9.8M pin / OI wall 11,947 calls)
4EM (2d): $231.54 - $241.73
5Max pain (near-term): $217.50 (2026-04-10) — within 10% of spot but below current spot

Flow Highlights

Enormous call-side premium concentration at $180 and $210 (Net call dollars: $126,143,135 at $180; $85,421,630 at $210) and large call net dollars at $235/$240/$220.

Institutional/flow clients are heavily skewed bullish or hedging stock exposure to the upside; dealers' net long-gamma exposure aligns with pinning near $235–$240 and favors mean reversion into those levels.

Notable put OI cluster at $200 (20,485 OI) and concentrated put flow in short-dated strikes (many short-dated put prints at $235/$232.5/$230 on 04-10).

Significant protective put interest lower down provides structural floors and explains the gamma flip level ~200; short-dated put activity near spot signals two-way hedging around near-term expiries.

Strategies

Defined-risk bull call spread (lean bullish, capture pinning)
Buy $240 / Sell $250 call spread exp 2026-04-17
Debit: $3.80-$4.20
Max loss: $4.20
Max gain: $6.80
BE: $243.80
Trigger: Enter when spot holds above $235 and IV remains <= current ATM (~50%)
Uses strong call-side pinning (GEX +$14.9M at $240) and lower net cost vs a naked call; available strikes $240 and $250 are in the listed strikes and show reasonable liquidity (240 call mid ~8.30, 250 call mid ~4.35).
Outperforms: Stock grinds up toward the $240-$250 pins but stays under the 1w upper EM $250.44
Underperforms: Guidance-driven gap down or explosive gap through $250 on strong upside (spread capped at $10)
Long straddle (vol play, directional if large move expected)
Buy $235 straddle exp 2026-04-24 (buy $235 call + $235 put)
Debit: $19.15-$20.50
Max loss: $20.50
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Below: ~215.5 / Above: ~254.5 (using cost ~20.5)
Trigger: Enter 1–3 days before suspected catalyst or if IV has not already run up into the expected move window
Direct way to capture a large surprise around the May earnings cadence or other catalysts. Straddle uses available $235 strikes (mid prices: call ~10.55, put ~8.60).
Outperforms: Actual two-sided move exceeds 1.5x current EM for that expiry (EM 15d ±$9.38 -> requires >~$14 move)
Underperforms: Stock pins inside $231-$241 and IV collapses; high theta and crush risk if move is muted
Short iron (income, plays pinning / low realized move)
Sell $230/$225 put vertical and sell $245/$250 call vertical exp 2026-04-17
Credit: $1.50-$2.20
Max loss: $3.80
Max gain: $2.20
BE: Downside ~227.8 / Upside ~247.0 (approx, depends on collected credit)
Trigger: Enter 1–3 days before an expected quiet print or if flows continue to net-call buy and GEX remains positive
Captures premium in a high-call-demand regime with strong dealer pinning; defined risk keeps tail losses limited while collecting rich call-side premium.
Outperforms: Stock remains inside EM guardrails ($231.54-$241.73) and dealers pin near $235-$240
Underperforms: A >1w EM-sized gap occurs beyond the sold wings (gap through $222 or $250)

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 1w expands to $222.84-$250.44; guidance-driven gaps on May 5 (earnings) can easily exceed these ranges — size positions accordingly.
!IV crush: Shorting premium into expected quiet windows benefits from dealer pinning, but any realized volatility spike or unexpected guidance will inflate IV and punish short premium prior to any reversion.
!Liquidity: Near-term strikes $235/$240/$250 show strong liquidity (OI and vol), but wider wings (e.g., $250/+ strikes) degrade in liquidity and widen spreads.
!Sizing: Given GEX +$109.2M, dealers may resist small moves but a single large flow or macro gap can overwhelm pinning — keep position size limited vs account risk and use defined-risk structures where possible.

What to Watch

?Spot action around $235-$240 (near-term GEX pins).
?IV trajectory into the 1w/2w expiries (watch ATM IV around 50–51% and any lift toward mid-50s).
?Unusual short-dated put prints at $235/$232.50/$230 on 2026-04-10 and call flows into $240/$235 — indicate client hedging or directional bets.
?Max pain drift (currently rising in the term structure: $218 → $220) and any rapid shifts in put OI at $200.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.