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AMD

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.Close $447.58EOD only
Max Pain
$415.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$24.20
5.4% from close
Price Gap
-32.58
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
56
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.08
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AMD options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AMD Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 31, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 5/5 (implied by IV kink). IV is extremely elevated at 62% for the 4/2 expiry, indicating a significant crush is likely post-event. The market expects a ±5.4% move. Historical data shows consistent EPS beats. Best strategy is selling premium via strangles/condors, given the high IV and historical tendency to under-move expectations. Key risk is the pro-cyclical gamma regime amplifying any directional gap.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV (62%); +0.5 strong bullish flow; -0.5 gamma trending (pro-cyclical)
Most important: IV term structure shows a massive kink at 4/2 (62% vs 54% for 4/10), confirming earnings are imminent, likely 4/2 AMC or 4/3 BMO.
⚠️Earnings date not explicitly provided but IV kink at 4/02 is definitive. Assume earnings 4/02 after close or 4/03 pre-market.
📊100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters, but no price move history. Focus on IV setup over historical price action.
⚡Gamma regime is 'Trending' (negative GEX). Dealers will amplify moves, not dampen them. Increases risk for all strategies.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 62%)
Gamma Regime
Trending (GEX $-11.3M — pro-cyclical)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$58.8M, P/C 0.60)
Spot vs MP
Near max pain $205 (spot $203.43)
Gamma flip: ~$165.00 — Gamma flip far below at ~$165. Current negative GEX means dealers amplify moves, increasing volatility.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-02 (2 days)implied

Expected moves:

  • 4/02 (2d): ±$10.99 (5.4%)
  • 4/10 (10d): ±$16.50 (8.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/02 expiry (62% IV) vs 4/10 (54%). Sharp drop post-earnings.

Crush estimate: ~8-10 vol pts, back to low 50s/high 40s.

Skew: Flow is heavily bullish (P/C 0.60), but OI is put-skewed (P/C OI 1.12). Unusual activity shows large put buying in the 4/2 expiry ($207.5, $212.5, $215).

Historical Context

Historical earnings data not available.

Key Levels

1$200 (major OI strike)
2$205 (max pain, spot near)
3$212.5 (unusual put activity)
4$220 (call OI wall)
5EM: $192.5 - $215

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish premium flow at $210C (+$23.3M net).

Institutional upside bets, possibly hedging or positioning for a breakout.

Heavy unusual put volume in 4/2 expiry: $207.5P (8.6x), $212.5P (8.5x), $215P (5.5x).

Likely earnings downside protection or speculative bearish bets against the bullish flow, creating a volatility bid.

Large block of $150P for 5/8 expiry (5,212 vol vs 133 OI, IV 71.4%).

Long-dated tail risk hedge, signaling concern over a larger-than-expected drop.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Premium Sale)
Sell $192.5/$187.5P x $217.5/$222.5C 4/02
Credit: $1.40-$1.80
Max loss: $3.60
Max gain: $1.60
BE: Below $194.10, Above $220.90
Trigger: Enter 1 day before earnings (4/01).
Capitalizes on extreme IV and expected crush. Strikes calibrated just outside the EM to provide a buffer. High probability of success if stock doesn't make an extreme move.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 5.4% EM bounds ($192.5-$215). High IV crush provides cushion.
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM by >15% (beyond short strikes). Pro-cyclical gamma could exacerbate the move.
Long Put Diagonal (Bearish/Breakdown)
Buy $207.5P 4/02, Sell $200P 4/10
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: Uncapped below $200
BE: $207.5 - net debit
Trigger: Enter day of earnings if bearish sentiment builds.
Positions for the unusual put flow and OI concentration at $200. The diagonal structure mitigates the cost of the near-term put while targeting a move to the key $200 support level.
Outperforms: Stock gaps down significantly post-earnings. Benefits from IV crush on short leg (further out) and volatility spike on long leg (near-term).
Underperforms: Stock rallies or pins. Decay on long leg accelerates post-earnings.
Strangle (Directional Volatility)
Buy $192.5P & $217.5C 4/02
Max loss: Total debit paid
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Below $192.5 - debit, Above $217.5 + debit
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips slightly before earnings.
For traders expecting a guidance-driven explosion beyond the priced-in move. High initial IV makes this expensive; needs a very large move to profit.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM by >30% (move > ±7%).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $205, IV crushes massively from 62%.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: EM is ±5.4% ($10.99). With negative GEX (pro-cyclical), any directional move could be amplified, increasing risk for short premium strategies.
!IV Crush: Estimated 8-10 point drop from 62%. Long volatility positions need a correspondingly large price move to overcome this decay.
!Liquidity: Excellent (2.66M OI). Tight spreads expected at major strikes.
!Sizing: Size short premium positions small (1-2% risk) due to trending gamma regime. Long volatility positions are lottery tickets.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into 4/01 — any drop reduces attractiveness of short premium plays.
?Spot price vs. $205 max pain into expiry — pinning risk exists.
?Unusual put activity in 4/2 expiry ($207.5-$215) for clues on dealer hedging and potential support/resistance.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.