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ALAB

Astera Labs, Inc.Close $287.48EOD only

Max Pain

$220.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$12.00

4.2% from close

Price Gap

-67.48

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.89

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ALAB options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

ALAB Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish with a near-term pin risk to $110. Confidence: 6/10. Spot is below max pain ($122) and GEX is negative, supporting a trending regime. However, the massive $80 put OI wall creates a structural floor, and the market is pricing in extreme volatility (IV 88.8%). The primary conflict is between the near-term pin gravity at $110 and the longer-term bearish drift in max pain.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6; GEX negative supports trending, but extreme IV and structural put wall limit downside conviction.

Supports: Negative GEX (-$5.2M), falling max pain trend, spot below MP.
Conflicts: Massive $80 put OI wall (6,969) creates a distant floor, IV >85% implies premium selling edge.

⚠️Extreme IV (88.8%) — premium selling has statistical edge.

📉GEX negative, max pain falling — structural bearish drift.

🧱$80 put OI wall (6,969) is a major structural support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 88.8% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers and defined-risk strategies.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$5.2M indicates a trending regime; dealers are long gamma only far below spot (~$80), offering little near-term pin.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed: Net premium -$25.7M suggests put buying, but P/C ratios are near 1, showing no clear directional consensus.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($109.60) is 10.2% below nearest max pain ($122), creating strong upward pinning pressure for the 3/27 expiry, but the trend is lower thereafter.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a clear downtrend from $122 to $100 over the next several months, and negative GEX is a persistent feature, not isolated to one expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$105.33$113.86

Driven by pin to $110 (4/02 MP) and proximity to upper EM bound. A break above $114 opens path to $120.

Next 1 week

$99.15$120.05

After near-term pin resolves, bearish max pain trend and negative GEX reassert. $99 is key support (1w EM low).

Next 2 weeks

$95.15$124.05

Structural drift lower targets $95-$100 range. The $80 put wall is too distant to influence this horizon.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $122 (2026-03-27); $110 (2026-04-02); $110 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $105.33/$113.86; 1w $99.15/$120.05

Support: $80.00 · $105.00 · $108.00

Resistance: $110.00 · $160.00

Gamma flip: ~$80.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,969

Structural: **Call OI wall at $160** caps extreme upside. **Put floor at $80** (6,969 OI) is a massive, distant structural support likely representing long-term hedging.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-5.2M

DEX: +6.8M shares

Gamma flip: ~$80 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 6,969)

NTM gamma: Dealer long gamma is concentrated far OTM at ~$80. Near spot, gamma is negative, meaning **dealers hedge by selling into rallies and buying into dips**, amplifying moves. A +2% move to ~$112 increases negative gamma pressure; a -2% move to ~$107 does the same.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 88.8% is extreme, indicating high single-stock risk. This is rich versus any broad market measure, offering strong edge to premium sellers.

Term structure: **Upward sloping (backwardation)** from 63.1% (2d) to 87.8% (45d), then flat. This kink shows extreme near-term event risk decaying quickly. The 5/08 expiry (87.4%) is peak IV, likely pricing the 5/05 earnings.

Skew: The steep near-term term structure (2d IV 63.1% vs 10d IV 71.6%) supports **calendar spreads selling the front week and buying a later expiry** to capture vol decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$25.7M bearish; P/C vol 1.16, P/C OI 0.90.

Directional prints: **$105P (4/10) vol 227 vs OI 4,364** — could be opening protective puts or closing. **$110C (4/10) vol 114 vs OI 2,342** — could be call selling or closing. Flow is mixed, consistent with regime.

Unusual: **$200C (8/21) vol 249 vs OI 148 (1.7x) at IV 83.9%** — likely a low-probability, high-conviction upside bet or a volatility purchase.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$80 is far away**; near-term negative gamma amplifies volatility.

!**Earnings on ~5/05** creates a volatility crush event for May expirations.

!**Extreme IV (88.8%)** can compress rapidly, hurting long premium positions.

!**Near-term pin to $110** could cause a sharp reversal if broken.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and falling MP trend oppose directional longs; better to finance with premium.
Short stock	Moderate	N/A	Aligns with regime but faces strong near-term pin to $110 and extreme IV makes borrow cost high.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $115C or $120C (4/17 or 4/24)	Stock drifts lower; call premium high but caps upside.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $100/$95 put spread (4/17). Use $100 (support) and $95 (2w EM low).	Break below $95.
Long calls	Weak	N/A	Buying premium in high IV, negative gamma regime is low-probability.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $105/$100 put spread (4/17). Targets move to 1w EM low.	High IV and near-term pin create headwinds; defined risk preferred.
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	N/A	GEX negative; VIX equivalent >25. Trending regime unfavorable for range-bound shorts.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $110C (4/10, IV 71.6%), Buy $110C (5/08, IV 87.4%).	Directional move through short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80 LEAPS (1/27), sell $115C (4/17) against it. Leverages structural put wall.	Capital intensive; time decay on long leg if stock stagnates.

Top Plays

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $100/$95 Put Spread, exp 4/17 (17 DTE)

**Sells rich IV in a bearish drift regime with clear technical boundaries.** Strikes target key support ($100) and the 2-week expected move low ($95). The multi-week thesis supports 30-45 DTE for time decay.

Credit: $1.25-$1.50

Max loss: $3.75

BE: $98.75

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $97.50.

Traders seeking high-probability, defined-risk income in a high-vol name.

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $110C (4/10), Buy $110C (5/08)

**Capitalizes on steep near-term term structure by selling high front-week IV and buying back-month IV.** Earnings on 5/05 keeps May IV elevated. Profits from vol decay in the short leg if stock stays near $110.

Credit: $0.80-$1.20

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush.

Mgmt: Close for 50% profit after 4/10 expiry if short leg decays. Exit if spot moves >$115.

Volatility traders comfortable with pin risk; best if you expect stock to hover near $110.

Covered Call (Tactical Overlay)

Own stock, Sell $115 Call, exp 4/2 (2 DTE)

**A tactical income play against the near-term pin to $110.** Captures rapid decay in weekly IV (63%) while providing a small upside buffer. This is a weekly expression of the multi-week bearish drift, generating income while waiting.

Credit: $0.60-$0.90

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: Stock purchase price - credit

Mgmt: Let expire worthless if OTM. Be prepared to roll or be assigned above $115.

Existing shareholders looking to enhance yield on a stagnant or slightly bullish move.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $112.50 (testing 2d EM high) → Enter bear put spread: Buy $105/$100 put spread (4/17).

IFSpot drops to $105 (near 2d EM low) and holds for 1 hour → Sell $100/$95 put spread (4/17) for a credit >$1.30.

Exit Triggers

EXITIV on 4/17 expiry drops below 65% (vol crush) → Take profit on all short premium positions (put spreads, calendars).

EXITSpot closes above $115 (breaks near-term pin resistance) → Exit all bearish positions (short stock, put spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish multi-week drift within a high-volatility regime, with a near-term pin to $110. Invalidation is a sustained break above $115. The regime favors selling rich premium via defined-risk spreads and calendars. Top plays: 1) $100/$95 put spread (4/17) for high-probability income, 2) $110 reverse call calendar for vol structure play, 3) $115 covered call (4/2) for shareholders to monetize the pin.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.