thetaOwl

AAPL

Apple Inc.Close $302.25EOD only
Max Pain
$292.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.44
1.5% from close
Price Gap
-9.75
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
22
Low premium
P/C OI
0.70
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects AAPL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
AAPL Flow Report
Analysis based on market close March 30, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from March 30, 2026. A newer flow report is available for May 20, 2026.

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Flow Verdict

BiasNeutral to Slightly Bullish
Confirmation: Spot reclaims and holds above $250 (max pain), with continued net premium inflow >$10M
Invalidation: Spot breaks below $245 with heavy put premium at $242.50/$245
Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; +1.0 net premium flipped positive; +0.5 call flow dominance in volume; -1.0 GEX pinning/mean-reverting regime; -0.0 VIX/IV normal

Watch next session: Spot reaction to $250 level; Follow-through in $247.50/$250 call flow; Any large put block at $240

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$8.1M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.81 — slightly call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.72 — moderate call lean

Flow has shifted from last week's clear bearish put dominance to a mixed but net bullish picture. Positive net premium and call-dominant volume suggest dip-buying or covering, but the positive GEX pinning regime and spot below max pain create a neutralizing force. The market is testing a move higher against a gamma ceiling.

Notable Prints

#1
AAPL 3/30 $250 Call
Vol: 35,406
OI: 2,749
Vol/OI: 12.9x
IV: 20.0%
Notional: ~$8.7M (premium est.)
Intent: Directional call buying targeting a move above max pain
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish breakout bet) vs. sold (covered call/write)

Read-through: Massive volume in a weekly just $3.37 OTM. The low 20% IV suggests buyers, not sellers. This is a direct bet on AAPL closing above $250 by Friday, directly challenging the dominant max pain level.

#2
AAPL 3/30 $245 Put
Vol: 32,505
OI: 4,476
Vol/OI: 7.3x
IV: 19.5%
Notional: ~$8.0M (premium est.)
Intent: Protective put hedging or speculative downside bet
Dual read: Bought to open (bearish/hedge) vs. sold (bullish/put write)

Read-through: High volume just $1.63 ITM. The IV is not elevated, and the vol/oi ratio is high but not extreme. This is likely a mix of hedging against a break below $245 and possibly some closing of existing puts. Its size counterbalances the call flow, creating the 'mixed' regime.

#3
AAPL 3/30 $247.50 Call
Vol: 9,981
OI: 700
Vol/OI: 14.3x
IV: 20.3%
Notional: ~$2.5M (premium est.)
Intent: Near-the-money directional call buying
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Fresh, high-conviction positioning (14.3x OI) targeting an immediate move above spot. This, combined with the $250C, forms a bullish cluster for the weekly expiry.

#4
AAPL 3/30 $252.50 Call
Vol: 17,937
OI: 1,847
Vol/OI: 9.7x
IV: 21.9%
Notional: ~$4.4M (premium est.)
Intent: Upside breakout bet above recent resistance
Dual read: Bought to open (bullish)

Read-through: Significant volume targeting a move above $252.50, which aligns with several near-term max pain levels. This is a more aggressive bullish bet than the $250C.

#5
AAPL 4/2 $150 Put
Vol: 100
OI: 5
Vol/OI: 20.0x
IV: 146.9%
Notional: ~$15,000 (strike value)
Intent: Noise / retail lottery ticket or spread leg
Dual read: Bought OTM put (bearish lottery) or sold as part of a spread

Read-through: Extreme OTM (39% below spot), tiny OI, and astronomical IV. This is pure noise with no institutional signaling value.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Concentrated in weekly (3/30) $247.50, $250, and $252.50 calls. This is fresh, near-term bullish positioning aiming for a move above max pain.

Put additions: Weekly (3/30) $245 and $242.50 puts. This appears to be hedging against a failure at $245, not aggressive downside speculation.

GEX/DEX consistency: Partially. Flow is net bullish (+$8.1M), but GEX is only +$15.2M and in a 'pinning' regime. This suggests the bullish flow is modest and may struggle against the mean-reverting force of dealer gamma near $250.

OI clusters: Near-term: $250 call (3/30) is now a major OI cluster from today's flow. Long-dated: Massive call walls remain at $280 and $300 (80k+ OI), which are distant magnets. The $245 put is a key near-term support cluster.

Hedging evidence: Yes, but scaled down. The large $245 put block is likely protective hedging for long stock or call positions opened today. The extreme OTM put flow (like $150) is negligible.

Max pain context: Spot ($246.63) is 1.3% below the dominant $250 max pain level. The new call flow at $250 is directly betting against this magnetic pull, creating a battleground.

Signal vs Noise

~The $150 Put 4/2 is noise — extreme OTM, tiny notional, retail-sized lottery ticket.
~Part of the $245 Put volume could be closing of puts bought last week (recall the heavy $255 put flow), which would be bullish, not bearish.
~The large OI in $280+ calls is legacy, long-dated positioning and not part of today's active flow narrative.
~The net premium positive figure is driven by large, far OTM call buys at strikes like $130 and $205 (see top premium flow). These are likely speculative, low-delta bets or spread legs, not direct bullish signals for the spot price.

Key Conclusions

🔄Regime Shift: Flow flipped from net bearish (-$16.3M) to net bullish (+$8.1M), indicating a change in short-term sentiment.
⚔️Battle at $250: New call flow targets a close above max pain, but positive GEX pins spot lower. This is the key conflict.
📞Call Dominance in Volume: Unusual activity is overwhelmingly call-focused in the weekly expiry, showing bullish conviction for a near-term pop.
🛡️Hedging Adjusted: Large put buys shifted down to $245 (from $255), defining a closer and tighter risk level for new long positions.
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This flow reflects the market close on March 30, 2026.
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