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SNAP

Snap Inc.Close $5.62EOD only

Max Pain

$5.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.26

4.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.12

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.34

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SNAP options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SNAP Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning bias toward $4.50-$5.00. Confidence: 7/10. The regime is dominated by massive positive GEX pinning and extremely bullish call flow, creating a powerful magnet higher. The primary conflict is spot's 15% distance from the nearest max pain, which may slow the drift.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 15.0% from MP

Supports: GEX +$69.9M (strong pinning), net premium +$6.1M (bullish), P/C vol 0.15 (extreme call dominance)
Conflicts: Spot $4.60 is well above nearest MP ($4.00), requiring a significant pin drift to align.

📌Extreme GEX pinning (+$70M) creates a powerful magnet.

📈P/C vol ratio of 0.15 shows near-panic call buying.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 85.7% is extremely high — selling premium has significant edge if direction is contained.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$69.9M is massively positive — dealers are short gamma and will hedge by buying dips and selling rallies, reinforcing a tight range.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$6.1M with P/C vol 0.15 — overwhelmingly bullish call buying, likely chasing momentum.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot is above nearest MP — gravity pulls toward $4.00 near-term, but rising MP trend ($4 → $7) suggests longer-term upside bias.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward across expirations ($4 → $7), GEX sign is strongly positive, and bullish flow is consistent. The pinning regime is structural, not just a weekly event.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$4.18$5.02

GEX pinning and call flow dominate; a break below $4.18 (2d EM low) invalidates.

Next 1 week

$4.09$5.11

Expect consolidation near $4.50-$5.00 as pinning fights distance from MP.

Next 2 weeks

$3.98$5.22

Rising max pain trend and structural call flow support continued upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $4 (2026-03-27); $4 (2026-04-02); $4 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $4.18/$5.02; 1w $4.09/$5.11

Support:

Resistance: $10.00 · $6.00 · $25.00

Structural: **Call OI walls at $5, $6, $10, and $25** represent significant upside resistance and likely profit-taking zones. The $5 strike is the immediate magnet.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+69.9M

DEX: +49.7M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: Massive positive GEX means dealers are short gamma. They will **buy spot on dips and sell on rallies**, amplifying mean reversion within the pinning range. A move beyond the 2d EM bounds ($4.18/$5.02) could accelerate as dealer hedging flips.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 85.7% is extremely elevated — selling premium is attractive, but requires conviction in the pinning range.

Term structure: **Steeply inverted near-term** (79.7% in 2d vs 61.7% in 10d), then humps at 5/01 (79.9%) and 5/08 (98.0%). The 5/08 expiry is pricing a major event (likely earnings anticipation).

Skew: **~18 vol-pt differential between 4/02 and 4/10 expiries** — supports a reverse calendar (sell near-dated high IV, buy farther-dated lower IV) for a bullish pin play.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$6.1M bullish; P/C vol 0.15 (extreme call skew), P/C OI 0.29.

Directional prints: $5.00C 4/02 vol 37.3K vs OI 21.9K (1.7x) — large, fresh call volume near-term. $5.50C 4/24 vol 18.0K vs OI 1.7K (10.8x) — likely new bullish positioning for April. Could be bought calls (momentum chase) or sold calls (covered/write). The net premium direction and extreme P/C ratio strongly favor bought calls.

Unusual: $1.00C 4/24 with IV 1125% — likely a cheap lottery ticket or spread leg, not a standalone directional bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma pin breaks** if spot moves beyond 2d EM ($4.18-$5.02), potentially triggering accelerated dealer hedging.

!**IV crush on 4/03** after the 4/02 expiry, especially harmful to long premium positions in weekly options.

!**Earnings anticipation volatility** is priced into the 5/01 and 5/08 expiries (IV 79.9%, 98.0%), creating event risk for longer-dated holds.

!**Lack of put support** — minimal put OI below spot leaves the downside technically open if the pin fails.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares at $4.60.	Pin fails and stock mean-reverts toward $4.00 MP.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Directly opposes powerful bullish GEX and flow regime.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $5.00 or $5.50 call (4/17 or 4/24).	Shares called away if rally continues; caps upside.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $4.00 put (4/10) or $4.00/$3.50 put spread (4/17).	Stock drifts down to max pain; defined risk spread preferred.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $5.00C (4/10 or 4/17) — but IV high.	IV crush and pinning erode premium; poor risk/reward.
Long puts / bear put spread	Weak	N/A	Fights overwhelming bullish regime.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	$4.00/$3.50P x $5.00/$5.50C (4/17), using EM bounds and OI walls.	VIX elevated but GEX strongly positive; pinning supports range.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar (Bullish): Sell $5.00C (4/02, IV 79.7%), Buy $5.00C (4/10, IV 61.7%).	Spot moves beyond $5.00 quickly, hurting short leg.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $4.00C (Jan 2027), sell $5.00C (April or May 2026) against it.	Long-dated IV still elevated (~72%); capital intensive.

Top Plays

Reverse Call Calendar (Bullish Pin)

Sell $5.00 Call (4/02), Buy $5.00 Call (4/10).

Capitalizes on the steep near-term IV inversion (79.7% vs 61.7%) and the GEX pinning magnet at $5.00. Profits if spot stays near $5.00 through Friday, decaying the expensive short leg rapidly.

Credit: $0.05-$0.10

Max loss: Unlimited (above $5.00 + net credit)

BE: Two breakevens: model-dependent; roughly $5.05 and $4.95.

Mgmt: **Take profit** 4/01 if short leg decays >50%. **Exit** if spot closes >$5.10 or <$4.80.

Traders who believe the pin holds and want to harvest extreme weekly IV.

Iron Condor (Pinning Range)

Sell $4.00/$3.50 Put Spread & Sell $5.00/$5.50 Call Spread (4/17).

Expresses the high-conviction pinning regime with defined risk. Uses the $4.00 max pain and $5.00 call OI wall as natural boundaries. High IV provides ample premium.

Credit: $0.15-$0.22

Max loss: $0.35

BE: $3.85 and $5.15

Mgmt: **Close** at 50% max profit. **Adjust** if spot tests one wing: roll untested side closer. **Exit** if spot breaches $3.85 or $5.15.

Range-bound premium sellers seeking defined risk in a high-vol name.

Covered Call (45+ DTE)

Own shares, sell $5.50 Call (5/15).

A longer-dated expression of the bullish-but-range-bound thesis. The 45+ DTE avoids weekly pin resolution noise and earnings until May. Captures high IV (~85%) while leaving room for upside to the $5.50 OI strike. Better than a weekly call write due to higher premium and less gamma risk around Friday pin.

Credit: $0.25-$0.35

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price.

BE: N/A

Mgmt: **Manage at 21 DTE** (late April). Roll up/out if stock approaches $5.50. **Close** if pin breaks below $4.20.

Shareholders or those willing to go long stock, wanting to generate income with moderate upside participation.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot dips to $4.40 and holds (testing pin support) → Enter Iron Condor: Sell $4.00/$3.50P & $5.00/$5.50C (4/17).

IFSpot rallies to $4.95 (approaching $5.00 magnet) → Enter Reverse Calendar: Sell $5.00C (4/02), Buy $5.00C (4/10).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $4.18 (2d EM low) → Exit all short premium positions (pin broken).

EXITVIX term structure flattens and SNAP 2d IV drops below 70% → Take profits on all short-vol positions (IV crush underway).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bullish pinning within $4.50-$5.00, driven by massive positive GEX and extreme call flow. Invalidation is a close below $4.18. The regime favors selling premium around the pin (iron condors) and harvesting steep near-term IV (reverse calendars). Top Plays: 1) Reverse calendar for tactical pin harvest, 2) Iron condor for defined-risk range trade, 3) Covered call for shareholders/investors seeking income with upside.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.