thetaOwl
HomeOptionsSLVReports

SLV

iShares Silver TrustClose $78.55EOD only
Max Pain
$73.00
Next expiry May 13, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.82
1.1% from close
Price Gap
-5.55
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
60
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.53
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
5.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: May 12, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SLV options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 12, 2026 close
SLV Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 13, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias on SLV driven by strong dealer gamma pinning near $74 and bullish flow, despite high vol. Spot above max pain with support from gamma flip at $70. Confidence high.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5, +2 GEX/flow aligned, +1 GEX positive, -1 spot far from MP, +1 VIX 18
Supports: Bullish flow ($+371.5M GEX), gamma pinning to $74, spot above MP
Conflicts: High vol, 8% distance to gamma flip at $70
📈Massive dealer gamma support at $74 (max pain) creates pinning effect
🛡️Gamma flip at $70 provides deep downside protection
⚠️High vol regime may increase noise; watch VIX >20 for reversal

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
IV is elevated vs typical range for SLV, likely due to macro uncertainty and silver's inherent volatility. Normal VIX (17.87) suggests SLV-specific stress.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Dealer gamma is large positive ($371.5M), nearest pin at $74 (max pain). Flip proximity at $70 (11.8% below spot) based on put OI concentration.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Net premium flow is bullish, aligning with positive gamma for upward pinning pressure.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot ($79.3) is above max pain ($74) by 7.2%, indicating bullish deviation with potential mean reversion but supported by gamma.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — High vol and strong gamma pinning suggest structural tension that may persist over weeks, not just event-driven.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days
$76.23$82.46
Gamma pinning supports drift toward $80 resistance; breakout above $80 could target $82.46
Next 1 week
$75.37$83.32
Trend continuation likely, resistance at $83.32
Next 2 weeks
$71.55$87.15
Wider range $71.55-$87.15; gamma flip at $70 caps downside

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $74 (2026-05-13); $67 (2026-05-15); $74 (2026-05-18)
EM guardrails: 2d $76.23/$82.46; 1w $75.37/$83.32
Support: $73.50 · $71.55
Resistance: $80.00 · $87.15
Gamma flip: ~$70.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 62,226 (11.8% below spot)
Structural: Support: $73.5 (2d low), $71.55 (2w low), gamma flip $70. Resistance: $80 (near-term), $87.15 (2w high). Max pain: $74 (pin area).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+371.5M

DEX: +310.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$70 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 62,226 (11.8% below spot))

NTM gamma: Dealer net gamma +$371.5M, positive hedging amplifying moves. Flip at $70 with 62,226 put OI. Dex long +310.6M shares, showing strong positioning support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: SLV IV is rich relative to VIX, suggesting elevated option pricing vs macro vol. This may offer premium selling opportunities for hedged positions.

Term structure: Term structure is in contango with slight steepening; nearest expiry shows kink at max pain $74, indicating market pricing for pinning.

Skew: Put skew is elevated due to heavy put OI at $70. A put credit spread at $70 could exploit elevated put premium while aligning with bullish thesis.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $188M positive, P/C vol ratio 0.32, OI ratio 0.53, strong call bias.

Directional prints: 79.9 call 150 OTM 2026-09-30 — Vol/OI 24.1; likely bought (bullish directional play) but could be sold; preferred read: bought. 65.9 call 92 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 9.0; likely bought (bullish) or sold for premium; preferred read: bought. 9.8 call 80 OTM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 6.2; heavy 0DTE call buying; preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 79.9 call 150 OTM 2026-09-30 — Vol/OI 24.1, massive volume in deep OTM call; unusual speculative bullish bet. 24.3 put 80 ITM 2026-05-13 — Vol/OI 48.6, massive put volume relative to OI; could be hedging or bearish speculation; unusual. 100 put 15 OTM 2026-09-18 — Vol/OI 9.4, deep OTM put with high IV; unusual speculative put purchase.

Risks & Catalysts

!Sharp drop through gamma flip at $70 could trigger cascade
!High vol regime may lead to whipsaws
!Silver market liquidity events or macro shock
!Spot breakdown below $73.5 support invalidates bullish thesis

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $85.00/$95.00 call spread
Why now: Strong call flow and gamma pinning at $74, high vol makes spread cheap
Limited premium if SLV fails to rally
Bullish risk reversalModerate-Strong
Buy 2026-06-12 $85.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $72.50 put
Why now: High vol makes puts premium-rich; strong dealer support at $70 limits downside
Sharp drop through $70 could cause margin loss on short put
Cash-secured putModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $74.00 cash-secured put
Why now: Gamma flip at $70 provides downside support, willing to buy at discount
Assignment risk if SLV falls below strike
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-12 $74.00/$68.00 put spread
Why now: Strong dealer support at $70, selling puts above gamma flip
Max loss if SLV drops below long put strike

Top Plays

#1
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-12 $85.00/$95.00 call spread
Captures upside with limited outlay; benefits from gamma pinning and strong call flow.
Why this play: Best risk/reward for bullish view; cheap due to high vol; defined risk.
Debit: $1.66-$2.02
Max loss: $2.02
BE: $87.02
Mgmt: Exit at 50% max gain or if SLV falls below $73.5.
Moderate bullish trader wanting capped risk.
#2
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-12 $74.00/$68.00 put spread
Collects premium by selling put above gamma flip; limited downside.
Why this play: Directly profits from dealer support at $70; defined risk within spread.
Credit: $1.53-$1.86
Max loss: $4.14
BE: $72.14
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit or if SLV breaks below $74.
Income-focused trader with bullish bias.
#3
Risk Reversal
Buy 2026-06-12 $85.00 call / sell 2026-06-12 $72.50 put
Long call funded by short put for cheap bullish exposure.
Why this play: Unlimited upside potential; high vol makes puts premium-rich.
Debit: $1.20-$1.46
Max loss: $72.50
BE: $72.50
Mgmt: Exit if SLV drops below $73.5; roll put up if needed.
Aggressive trader expecting strong upside.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFSLV pulls back to $73.5 support and holds → Enter Bull Call Spread (SLV_01): Buy 2026-06-12 $85/$95 call spread
IFSLV stays above $74 max pain and call flow continues → Enter Put Credit Spread (SLV_04): Sell 2026-06-12 $74/$68 put spread
IFSLV closes above $80 with volume > 20-day average → Enter Long Call (SLV_03): Buy 2026-06-12 $80 call
IFSLV breaks above $80 resistance with conviction → Enter Bullish Risk Reversal (SLV_02): Buy $85 call / sell $72.50 put
Exit Triggers
EXITSLV closes below $73.5 invalidation level → Exit all bullish positions: close SLV_01, SLV_02, SLV_03, SLV_04

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias on SLV with dealer pinning near $74 and support at $70 gamma flip. Prefer Bull Call Spread on dips to $73.5 or Put Credit Spread above $74. Exit all if $73.5 breaks. High vol regime: manage size.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 13, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.