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PFE

Pfizer, Inc.Close $25.66EOD only

Max Pain

$25.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$0.51

2.0% from close

Price Gap

-0.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.95

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PFE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

PFE Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Bullish with a pinning bias toward $27-$28. Confidence: 7/10. Strong positive GEX ($222.9M) and bullish flow (P/C vol 0.40) support upside, but spot is 6% above the nearest max pain, creating a short-term gravitational pull lower.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.0% from MP

Supports: GEX +$222.9M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$6.3M (bullish), P/C Volume Ratio 0.40 (call dominance)
Conflicts: Spot ($28.08) is above nearest max pain ($26.50 for 3/27), suggesting a potential drift lower to meet pinning gravity.

📌Strong GEX pinning near $27-$28, but spot is above the immediate pin.

📈Flow regime is decisively bullish with net premium to calls.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 29.0% — Normal regime. Premium is neither cheap nor rich, offering no clear edge for pure vol trades.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$222.9M — Strong pinning regime. Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and magnetizing spot toward high-OI strikes.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Flow: Bullish — Net premium +$6.3M with P/C vol 0.40 shows clear institutional call buying dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot vs MP: Above — Spot at $28.08 is above the immediate $26.50 max pain, suggesting a potential short-term pullback toward the pin cluster.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder trends upward from $26.50 to $30 over 13 expirations, GEX sign is strongly positive across tenors, and bullish flow is consistent. This supports a multi-week bullish drift thesis.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$27.43$28.73

Spot above immediate max pain ($26.50) creates gravitational pull lower. A hold above $28.73 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$27.04$29.11

Multi-week bullish flow and rising max pain support upside. A break below $27.04 (lower 1w EM) breaks the thesis.

Next 2 weeks

$26.77$29.38

Structural call OI at $30 is the ultimate cap; bullish regime supports a grind higher.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $26 (2026-03-27); $28 (2026-04-02); $27 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $27.43/$28.73; 1w $27.04/$29.11

Support: $20.00 · $24.00 · $25.00

Resistance: $30.00 · $30.00

Gamma flip: ~$20.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 60,221

Structural: **Call OI wall at $30** is the major upside cap (OI: 100k+). **Put floor at $20-$25** (OI: 200k+) provides distant but massive support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+222.9M

DEX: +70.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$20 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 60,221)

NTM gamma: Dealers are **net long $222.9M gamma**, strongest near $27-$28 strikes. A move **+2% to ~$28.65** increases pinning pressure. A move **-2% to ~$27.50** likely sees accelerated dealer buying (long gamma), providing a cushion.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 29.0% — No VIX provided for direct comparison, but term structure shows no extreme richness or cheapness.

Term structure: **Humped with a kink at 5/08 (38 DTE, IV 33.2%).** This is likely pricing the 5/05 earnings event. IV drops sharply after (29.1% for 5/15).

Skew: **~7 vol-point differential between 5/08 (33.2%) and 5/15 (29.1%)** — supports a post-earnings vol crush calendar spread (sell May 8, buy May 15).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$6.3M bullish; P/C vol 0.40 (extreme call skew), P/C OI 0.82.

Directional prints: $28C saw $1.54M net premium (Vol 3.6k vs OI 45k) — likely **bought calls** for upside. $30.50C 4/17 saw 966 vol vs 203 OI (4.8x) at low IV (23.6%) — could be bullish speculation or a covered call roll. Interpretation: Bullish flow is more consistent with the regime.

Unusual: $29P 5/15 saw 463 vol vs 290 OI (1.6x) at elevated IV (30.9%) — could be a protective put buy or premium sale. Given high IV and earnings proximity, selling is more likely.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$20** is far away, but a break below the $25 put floor could trigger accelerated selling.

!**Earnings on ~5/05** creates a volatility kink; positions across that date face binary risk.

!**Spot rejection at the $30 call wall** could reverse the multi-week bullish drift.

!**Near-term max pain gravity ($26.50)** could cause a pullback before the bullish trend resumes.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Moderate-Strong	Buy shares at market (~$28.08).	Pullback to max pain ($26.50); sector/macro downturn.
Short Stock	Weak	N/A	Contravenes strong bullish flow and positive GEX; only viable on a break below $25.
Covered Call	Moderate-Strong	Own shares, sell $30C 5/15 (45 DTE) for ~$0.45.	Shares rally past $30, capping upside.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $27/$26 put spread 4/17 (17 DTE) for ~$0.30 credit.	Spot breaks below $27 support.
Long Calls	Moderate	Buy $28C 5/15 (45 DTE) for ~$1.10.	Time decay and pullback to max pain; IV is not low.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $28/$27 put spread 4/10 (10 DTE) for ~$0.40 debit.	Strong bullish flow and pinning make sustained downside difficult.
Iron Condor	Strong	$27/$26P x $29/$30C 4/17 (17 DTE).	Earnings vol spike in early May; break of EM bounds.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate	Reverse Calendar: Sell $30C 5/08 (33.2% IV), Buy $30C 5/15 (29.1% IV) for a net credit.	Spot moves far from $30, killing theta decay; pin risk.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $25C 12/18 (262 DTE, ~$4.50), Sell $30C 5/15 (45 DTE) against it.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV decay if thesis fails.

Top Plays

Bull Put Spread

Sell $27/$26 Put Spread, 4/17 Expiration

Capitalizes on the bullish flow and positive GEX pinning regime. The $27 strike aligns with key support and the 1-week expected move lower bound ($27.04), offering a high-probability defined-risk entry.

Credit: $0.28-$0.32

Max loss: $0.72

BE: $26.72

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $27.00.

Traders seeking defined-risk, bullish premium collection with a multi-week horizon.

Iron Condor

$27/$26P x $29/$30C, 4/17 Expiration

Strong edge due to high positive GEX and normal IV. The wings are placed at the 1-week EM bounds ($27.04 / $29.11) and key OI levels, maximizing the pinning effect for premium decay.

Credit: $0.35-$0.45

Max loss: $0.65

BE: 26.65 / 29.35

Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Adjust if spot breaches either short strike. Avoid holding through May earnings.

Neutral-to-range-bound traders comfortable with defined risk on both sides.

LEAPS Diagonal (PMCC)

Buy $25C 12/18, Sell $30C 5/15

Expresses the multi-week bullish structural thesis with lower capital outlay than stock. The long $25C is deep ITM (delta ~0.85) and below the put floor, providing a sturdy base. The short $30C targets the major OI wall for premium and aligns with the 45-day bullish drift.

Debit: $3.80-$4.00

Max loss: $3.80

BE: $28.80

Mgmt: Roll the short call up and out monthly for credit. Close the entire position if the $25 support breaks.

Investors with larger capital seeking leveraged, long-term bullish exposure with monthly income.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot pulls back to $27.25 (testing 2-day EM lower bound) → Enter Bull Put Spread: Sell $27/$26 put spread 4/17.

IFIf spot rallies to test $29.50 (approaching $30 wall) → Enter Bear Call Spread: Sell $30/$31 call spread 4/17.

IFIf IV on May 8 expiry spikes above 35% pre-earnings → Enter Reverse Calendar: Sell $30C 5/08, Buy $30C 5/15.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf spot closes below $26.00 (breaks multi-week support) → Exit all bullish positions (put spreads, long calls, PMCC).

EXITIf VIX spikes >30 and spot drops 3% in a day → Exit all short premium positions (condors, put spreads) to avoid gamma risk.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Multi-week bullish drift toward $30, anchored by strong pinning and call flow. Invalidation is a close below $26. The regime strongly favors short premium strategies (iron condors, put spreads) due to high positive GEX. Top plays offer a mix: the put spread for direct bullish bias, the iron condor for neutral pinning, and the LEAPS diagonal for leveraged structural exposure.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.